To produce electricity you need to burn either coal or natural gas. So most of the electricity is carbon fuels based. Only
nuclear stations and hydro are in this sense produce non-carbon based electricity.
Solar and Wind does not produce much yet, and are not that economical as useful life of solar panels is limited; wind turbines are
better but also has a share of complex problems (high voltage lines connecting the various areas of the country is one, the
necessity to build "compensating" natural gas power stations is another). Both need a lot of hydrocarbons to burn to be produced.
Lithium batteries useful life is around ten years. So they are consumables much like petrol in regular cars. Cost of an 85 kW/h
Tesla battery is around $12K or $1.2K a year. Few people understand that.
Add to this the cost of charging infrastructure (which need to be built) and which also needs some hydrocarbons to be burned (a
petrol infrastructure is already in place in most countries) and you will see that the promise of fully electric cars is open to
discussion.
Hybrids look a lot more promising. At least for now. Biodiesel is a more promising option for tracks (and the diesel engine can last
50 years, not ten), but its supplies are very limited.
So this is a complex engineering problem, and only complete idiots can cry "Viva electric cars."
If you add the energy necessary to produce the battery every ten years and losses in electrical transmission, the battery itself and
charging, the electric car is not that economical. It is just one way to allow natural gas and cal to power the personal
transportation cars and that gives us that ability to prolong the useful life of modern civilization.
Those of us who are over 60 are very lucky and most probably will not see coming end of "cheap oil" and associated crisis of modern
civilization.
When Musk recently promised an electrical truck that can beat diesel truck by 20% per mile in "the overall cost of ownership"
at the current level of oil prices, he is either a genius, or an adventurist completely detached from reality. I would be happy
if his promises materialize, but I suspect the latter is more plausible.
The battery for the truck to provide 500 miles range should be huge (500 KW/h or more; assuming 1 mile per KWh; Tesla S which is a medium
car consumes 0.3 ) and this additional weight will kill most of the electrical motor efficiency. Weight of Tesla S with 75KWh
battery is around 4600 lbs. If we assume that battery is around 33% of the weight of the electrical car, then
the weight of battery is 1500 lbs. And that's a very charitable assumption. It might well be 50%. So the battery of the Tesla
truck can weight around (500/75)*1500 lbs or around 3 tons. That means that like a passenger electrical car, the electrical truck is
somewhat loaded even when it is empty, and will transport only 7 tons of cargo instead of 10 tons for a regular truck.
As for being gifted engineer that does not exclude him from being an adventurist. I saw several very talented programmers, who slipped
into this hole. One got a prison sentence. There is something in the US air that increase sensitivity of people, especially immigrants,
to "make money fast" schemes and technical adventurism. That's actually the spirit of Silicon Valley ;-).
As far as I understand even in California passenger electrical cars can't beat hybrids in "per mile" cost of ownership, although
they can come close.
In NJ total cost of ownership of a good Hybrid like RAV4 for 10 years and 12K miles per year (assuming $2.5 per gallon and 30 miles
per gallon) is around $44K. That's around one half of the initial price of Tesla S 100D ($94K) with range 335 miles.
Electricity and maintenance for 10 years is extra...
A pre-production estimate by a forum member is 535-556 kg.
I am pro-EV guys (I would prefer one with the backup engine like GM or Toyota, but this isn't a point). My main problem with Tesla
3 is -- too much software. Tesla is Microsoft of EV cars. Would you like your can to get software updates that affect breaking
system from the organization led by such an unbalanced and over-concerted with stock value man as Musk?
If we assume that cheap oil will end in, say, 20-30 year -- so those who are in their 30th might see $20 per gallon of gas. In
this case switch
to EV and other alternatives is just a matter of time. And the first step to avoid the total collapse of the US civilization with it suburbia sprawl
will be switch to EVs for personal transportation. I think a couple of countries already made decision not to allow sales of traditional
gas-only small cars since 2020 -- only hybrids and EVs. Which is somewhat premature (they can be converted to natural gas), but
the USA elite looks pretty backward. Unable to think more then a election cycle timeframe.
I still drive my 1977 Honda Accord. The paint is almost all worn off. It's still running.
I can admire this man at least for the level of resistance the neoliberal social pressures in this area "buy, buy, buy". I would not
do it myself as I hate to repair the car at dealerships and I view German luxury cars as overcomplicated, and Japanese luxury
models overpriced. Still I will be first to admit that if you have extra money a good luxury car like Lexus, Acura or Infinity simplifies
life (you get replacement car in case something breaks, service is more polite and responsive, they wash and vacuum your car each
time you have service, coffee is better and you can get cappuccino, if you like, etc).
Still for status concerted home owners in California with its moderate climate and no winter Tesla 3 as deficient as it is, might
be an OK car. For East Coast only hybrids needs to apply -- the winter is too harsh and if you travel to NYC 50 miles and then
wait for in traffic 4 hours with the outside temperature -15 and strong wind to cross the bridge to NYC you might run out of 60 KW battery
as the heater consumes around 10 KW/h in such a weather.
Here are some interesting doomsday predictions for your reading pleasure ;-). it will be interesting to see what percentage of them
might materialize, or if a more cautious assessment will turn out correct
Thorfinnsson says: May 25, 2018 at 4:10 pm GMT
On a different note, Tesla is going to zero. The company has a number of severe problems:
Tesla is burning through one billion per quarter and is likely to run out of cash this year
• It is the only company of its size (in the market) offering high yield debt and stock offerings to accredited investors (which
do not require SEC disclosure)
• Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly refused to meet with Elon Musk when he was in Saudi Arabia
• Elon Musk has violated federal securities, labor, and OSHA laws
• Musk and many other current and former executives have signed false documents and thus committed perjury
• The Model 3 is a disaster and was panned by Consumer Reports, Car and Driver, and Edmund’s
• The self-dealing merger with Solar City would likely not have been approved by shareholders without Musk’s vaporware demonstration
of solar roof tiles that do not exist (securities fraud)
• Half of Tesla’s output is exported, leaving it very vulnerable to trade retaliation
• Quality problems continue to be severe, and Tesla has now resorted to partnering with local body shops for post-production fixes
• Extreme shortage of spare parts means Teslas can be out of service for months
• Tesla takes months to refund customer deposits
• Numerous accounting problems, leading to 86 questions from the SEC for the last fiscal year, compared to zero for Ford Motor
• Tesla “autopilot” units keep crashing
• Highest accident and fatality statistics in its vehicle class (new luxury vehicles)
• Model S wheels and suspensions keep cracking
• Difficulty of exiting vehicle in the absence of electrical power (no mechanical door handles) led to children literally being
burned alive
• A flood of competition is inbound, including the 600 horsepower Porsche Misson-E going into production at Zuffenhausen next
year
• Tesla’s zero emission credits are set to expire, just as other automakers start harvesting them
Every freely available share is now short
-- not joking. You can’t even short the stock anymore generally, though puts are of
course available.
Musk himself is likely to be personally wiped out as well, as he has borrowed against 40% of his shares. He’ll face a very
ugly margin call when the stock starts sliding. Additionally, he’s likely to personally face both civil and criminal liability.
IMHO Musk assumes that he can dictate his will to other people despite the limits of technology (and electrical cars in many aspects,
especially in power-train aspects are still developing technology in my book. I also heard that the Model 3’s factory variable
cost (FVC) to be $1,510 above its $35,000 starting price (https://electrek.co/2016/04/26/tesla-model-3-battery-pack-cost-kwh/
).
I suspect that Tesla 3 appeared on the scene too early for a mass produced fully electrical car.
Musk probably should stick to luxury segment longer, where he has some limited success, despite all the problems. As
for mass produced electrical cars it look like rumors about Musk being genius are greatly exaggerated :-)
BTW Consumer Reports said the vehicle's stopping range is far worse than other cars tested. It's even longer than that of a Ford
F-150 pick-up truck. Big NO to the car.
And even in luxury segment Musk will have a strong competition soon: the next year on high end ($100K plus) Porsche might take Tesla
models for a ride -- the Porsche Misson-E car has several really interesting concepts in it
Damage Control: Elon Musk Admits Cybertruck Could "Flop", Writes Off Summon Feature As
Just A "Fun Trick" BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 09:11 PM
As the cold hard reality of Elon Musk's promises of years past start to catch up to the
Tesla CEO - who last week
testified in a trial where he is alleged to have made a unilateral decision to poorly
allocate shareholder capital by bailing out his cousin's failing Solar City business that was
on the verge of insolvency - Musk now appears to be embarking on a journey to try and talk his
way out of past promises and manage expectations.
And while the mainstream financial press and regulators seem to be just fine with allowing
Musk to get away with this, we'd be remiss if we didn't point out each time the Earth's boy
genius attempts to re-write history right in front of our faces, with a smile, as though no one
would notice and/or remember a half-decade of missed deadlines and false promises along the
path of selling equity to investors and pushing
poorly made vehicles, many hand-assembled in a makeshift tent ( hereinafter referred to as
"the Alien dreadnaught" ) to marks willing to buy.
The walk back of history began with a mega-huge whopper about 2 weeks ago when, at the
beginning of July,
Musk admitted that Full-Self Driving - a non-existent feature customers have been paying
for for a half-decade - was a "hard problem", casually dropping into conversation the idea that
the company may not be anywhere close to meeting Musk's promises about FSD.
As a reminder, Musk said in 2019 he was "very confident" in predicting autonomous robotaxis
"next year", which would have been 2020, which has now turned into "last year" and is six
months away from being "two years ago". Earlier
this year Tesla offered up another reality check when it admitted to regulators that it was
still "firmly in level 2" autonomy.
"Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of
real-world AI. I didn't expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect.
Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality," Musk wrote on Twitter in early July.
It's a far cry from what Musk was saying years ago. "Tesla will have over 1 million
robotaxis on the road next year," Musk proclaimed in April of 2019, now more than 2 years
ago.
Great, so you'll just issue refunds to everyone who has paid for the feature over the last 5
years, right?
Regardless, even the latest much heralded update to Full Self Driving, which
arrived about a month late and had been touted as a solution to the last beta, which was
such a disaster it was
pulled off the market quickly , appears to be more of the same: jerky movements, uncertain
vehicle operation and constant necessary interruptions from the driver.
After Full Self Driving 9.0's release, even the company's biggest fans like Galileo Russell
said he saw little difference between the last beta and this one - and he still thinks the
company is "still a long way away" to truly autonomous driving "where you never have to
intervene".
Musk Walks Back Cybertruck Expectations
In another walk-back and reset of expectations last week, Elon Musk also Tweeted that there
was "always some chance" that the Cybertruck - a product
introduced almost two years ago in November 2019 to ridiculous fanfare - could "flop".
This stands at obvious odds with statements
Musk made in September at the company's shareholder meeting, where he said "The orders are
gigantic" about the truck. Musk claimed there were "... well over half a million orders." He
continued: "It's a lot, basically. We stopped counting."
Recall, at the introduction of the Cybertruck, Musk had an assistant come on stage and try
to break the truck's armored glass.
"Normal glass shatters immediately," Musk said as his assistants, dressed like characters
from The Matrix, dropped a metal ball on conventional glass, causing it to shatter.
At which point another of Musk's assistants gently threw a similar metal ball at the
Cybertruck parked on stage. The driver's side window promptly broke.
"Oh my fucking God," Musk nervously said, live on the stream, after the front window
shattered into a million pieces.
And if this demo wasn't enough to "manage expectations", Musk is now admitting the truck
could "flop".
But don't worry shareholders, Musk has your back. He Tweeted: "To be frank, there is always
some chance that Cybertruck will flop, because it is so unlike anything else. I don't care. I
love it so much even if others don't. Other trucks look like copies of the same thing, but
Cybertruck looks like it was made by aliens from the future."
Actually, it appears Musk doesn't have your back - it appears he's going to do whatever the
hell he wants regardless of whether or not it's good for the company.
"In end, we kept production design almost exactly same as show car. Just some small tweaks
here & there to make it slightly better. No door handles. Car recognizes you & opens
door. Having all four wheels steer is amazing for nimble handling & tight turns!" Musk
gushed about the truck, which is still not in production.
Some critics not only believe the truck is already a "flop", but also that its claimed specs
are outright fraudulent.
"This fraud is no different from those of Theranos or Nikola," Stanphyl Capital's Mark
Spiegel wrote on Twitter last week.
Musk Walks Back Years Of Bluster About "Smart Summon"
And now, the most recent walk-back. Shortly after Musk's Cybertruck comments came Musk's
"realigning" of expectations about Tesla's Summon feature, which Musk has been boasting about
whilst collecting order money, for years.
This series of Tweets is a
great starter thread on Musk's previous statements about summon - including ones claiming it
can go across the country and others using Summon as a reason to bump up the price of the
non-existent Full Self Driving - (additional sources here ), which
include:
January 10, 2016 : "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not
blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY."
October 20, 2016: "When you want your car to return, tap Summon on your phone. It will
eventually find you even if you are on the other side of the country."
October 31, 2018 : "By next year, a Tesla should be able to drive around a parking lot,
find an empty spot, read signs to confirm it's valid & park."
November 1, 2018 : "Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air
software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware
V2+)."
November 1, 2018 : "Car will drive to your phone location & follow you like a pet if
you hold down summon button on Tesla app."
April 6, 2019 : "Tesla Enhanced Summon coming out in US next week for anyone with
Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving option."
May 23, 2019 : "Smart Summon coming soon!"
October 11, 2019 : "Now that Tesla V10.0 with Smart Summon is out, Full Self-Driving
price will increase by $1000 on Nov 1."
April 16, 2020 : "We're working super hard on getting traffic lights & stops
released. Reverse summon (auto park) will be part of the core Autopilot software upgrade for
FSD later this year."
And then, finally, just this past week: "Current Summon is sometimes useful, but mostly just
a fun trick," Musk nonchalantly wrote on Twitter this weekend.
More than five years after Musk claimed Summon would work cross-country, it appears he is
now giving up on the feature as it stands today. It's yet one more walk back and re-writing of
history that both customers and regulators will likely be just fine with.
Everyone Can See It Except Regulators And Tesla Cultists
Keep in mind these walk-backs don't even include
the company's Solar Roof rollout . Even the mainstream media is catching up to that
disaster: Bloomberg's Dana Hull
published a piece last month aptly titled "Tesla's Solar Roof Rollout Is a Bust" And a
Fixation for Elon Musk".
"It needs to be beautiful, affordable and seamlessly integrated," Musk said about the
company's solar roof shingle back in 2016. "You'll want to call your neighbors over and say,
"˜check out this sweet roof.'"
Except now it's a half decade later and the company has barely rolled out any solar roofs,
struggling to hit 200 installations per week. This is despite the fact that Musk set a goal to
install more than 1,000 of them a week back in 2019. It raised prices in April of this year,
leading to a slew of cancellations, Hull notes.
We don't seem to be the only ones exasperated about the lack of regulatory oversight on
Musk's actions, either. For example, many on social media and podcasts have honed in on the fact that Full Self
Driving is a complete and total bait and switch - except the "switched" item doesn't seem to
exist, either!
Damage Control: Elon Musk Admits Cybertruck Could "Flop", Writes Off Summon Feature As
Just A "Fun Trick" BY TYLER DURDEN SUNDAY, JUL 18, 2021 - 09:11 PM
As the cold hard reality of Elon Musk's promises of years past start to catch up to the
Tesla CEO - who last week
testified in a trial where he is alleged to have made a unilateral decision to poorly
allocate shareholder capital by bailing out his cousin's failing Solar City business that was
on the verge of insolvency - Musk now appears to be embarking on a journey to try and talk his
way out of past promises and manage expectations.
And while the mainstream financial press and regulators seem to be just fine with allowing
Musk to get away with this, we'd be remiss if we didn't point out each time the Earth's boy
genius attempts to re-write history right in front of our faces, with a smile, as though no one
would notice and/or remember a half-decade of missed deadlines and false promises along the
path of selling equity to investors and pushing
poorly made vehicles, many hand-assembled in a makeshift tent ( hereinafter referred to as
"the Alien dreadnaught" ) to marks willing to buy.
The walk back of history began with a mega-huge whopper about 2 weeks ago when, at the
beginning of July,
Musk admitted that Full-Self Driving - a non-existent feature customers have been paying
for for a half-decade - was a "hard problem", casually dropping into conversation the idea that
the company may not be anywhere close to meeting Musk's promises about FSD.
As a reminder, Musk said in 2019 he was "very confident" in predicting autonomous robotaxis
"next year", which would have been 2020, which has now turned into "last year" and is six
months away from being "two years ago". Earlier
this year Tesla offered up another reality check when it admitted to regulators that it was
still "firmly in level 2" autonomy.
"Generalized self-driving is a hard problem, as it requires solving a large part of
real-world AI. I didn't expect it to be so hard, but the difficulty is obvious in retrospect.
Nothing has more degrees of freedom than reality," Musk wrote on Twitter in early July.
It's a far cry from what Musk was saying years ago. "Tesla will have over 1 million
robotaxis on the road next year," Musk proclaimed in April of 2019, now more than 2 years
ago.
Great, so you'll just issue refunds to everyone who has paid for the feature over the last 5
years, right?
Regardless, even the latest much heralded update to Full Self Driving, which
arrived about a month late and had been touted as a solution to the last beta, which was
such a disaster it was
pulled off the market quickly , appears to be more of the same: jerky movements, uncertain
vehicle operation and constant necessary interruptions from the driver.
After Full Self Driving 9.0's release, even the company's biggest fans like Galileo Russell
said he saw little difference between the last beta and this one - and he still thinks the
company is "still a long way away" to truly autonomous driving "where you never have to
intervene".
Musk Walks Back Cybertruck Expectations
In another walk-back and reset of expectations last week, Elon Musk also Tweeted that there
was "always some chance" that the Cybertruck - a product
introduced almost two years ago in November 2019 to ridiculous fanfare - could "flop".
This stands at obvious odds with statements
Musk made in September at the company's shareholder meeting, where he said "The orders are
gigantic" about the truck. Musk claimed there were "... well over half a million orders." He
continued: "It's a lot, basically. We stopped counting."
Recall, at the introduction of the Cybertruck, Musk had an assistant come on stage and try
to break the truck's armored glass.
"Normal glass shatters immediately," Musk said as his assistants, dressed like characters
from The Matrix, dropped a metal ball on conventional glass, causing it to shatter.
At which point another of Musk's assistants gently threw a similar metal ball at the
Cybertruck parked on stage. The driver's side window promptly broke.
"Oh my fucking God," Musk nervously said, live on the stream, after the front window
shattered into a million pieces.
And if this demo wasn't enough to "manage expectations", Musk is now admitting the truck
could "flop".
But don't worry shareholders, Musk has your back. He Tweeted: "To be frank, there is always
some chance that Cybertruck will flop, because it is so unlike anything else. I don't care. I
love it so much even if others don't. Other trucks look like copies of the same thing, but
Cybertruck looks like it was made by aliens from the future."
Actually, it appears Musk doesn't have your back - it appears he's going to do whatever the
hell he wants regardless of whether or not it's good for the company.
"In end, we kept production design almost exactly same as show car. Just some small tweaks
here & there to make it slightly better. No door handles. Car recognizes you & opens
door. Having all four wheels steer is amazing for nimble handling & tight turns!" Musk
gushed about the truck, which is still not in production.
Some critics not only believe the truck is already a "flop", but also that its claimed specs
are outright fraudulent.
"This fraud is no different from those of Theranos or Nikola," Stanphyl Capital's Mark
Spiegel wrote on Twitter last week.
Musk Walks Back Years Of Bluster About "Smart Summon"
And now, the most recent walk-back. Shortly after Musk's Cybertruck comments came Musk's
"realigning" of expectations about Tesla's Summon feature, which Musk has been boasting about
whilst collecting order money, for years.
This series of Tweets is a
great starter thread on Musk's previous statements about summon - including ones claiming it
can go across the country and others using Summon as a reason to bump up the price of the
non-existent Full Self Driving - (additional sources here ), which
include:
January 10, 2016 : "In ~2 years, summon should work anywhere connected by land & not
blocked by borders, eg you're in LA and the car is in NY."
October 20, 2016: "When you want your car to return, tap Summon on your phone. It will
eventually find you even if you are on the other side of the country."
October 31, 2018 : "By next year, a Tesla should be able to drive around a parking lot,
find an empty spot, read signs to confirm it's valid & park."
November 1, 2018 : "Tesla advanced Summon ready in ~6 weeks! Just an over-the-air
software upgrade, so will work on all cars made in past 2 years (Autopilot hardware
V2+)."
November 1, 2018 : "Car will drive to your phone location & follow you like a pet if
you hold down summon button on Tesla app."
April 6, 2019 : "Tesla Enhanced Summon coming out in US next week for anyone with
Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving option."
May 23, 2019 : "Smart Summon coming soon!"
October 11, 2019 : "Now that Tesla V10.0 with Smart Summon is out, Full Self-Driving
price will increase by $1000 on Nov 1."
April 16, 2020 : "We're working super hard on getting traffic lights & stops
released. Reverse summon (auto park) will be part of the core Autopilot software upgrade for
FSD later this year."
And then, finally, just this past week: "Current Summon is sometimes useful, but mostly just
a fun trick," Musk nonchalantly wrote on Twitter this weekend.
More than five years after Musk claimed Summon would work cross-country, it appears he is
now giving up on the feature as it stands today. It's yet one more walk back and re-writing of
history that both customers and regulators will likely be just fine with.
Everyone Can See It Except Regulators And Tesla Cultists
Keep in mind these walk-backs don't even include
the company's Solar Roof rollout . Even the mainstream media is catching up to that
disaster: Bloomberg's Dana Hull
published a piece last month aptly titled "Tesla's Solar Roof Rollout Is a Bust" And a
Fixation for Elon Musk".
"It needs to be beautiful, affordable and seamlessly integrated," Musk said about the
company's solar roof shingle back in 2016. "You'll want to call your neighbors over and say,
"˜check out this sweet roof.'"
Except now it's a half decade later and the company has barely rolled out any solar roofs,
struggling to hit 200 installations per week. This is despite the fact that Musk set a goal to
install more than 1,000 of them a week back in 2019. It raised prices in April of this year,
leading to a slew of cancellations, Hull notes.
We don't seem to be the only ones exasperated about the lack of regulatory oversight on
Musk's actions, either. For example, many on social media and podcasts have honed in on the fact that Full Self
Driving is a complete and total bait and switch - except the "switched" item doesn't seem to
exist, either!
Canada will
ban the sale of fuel-burning new cars and light-duty trucks from 2035 in an effort to reach
net-zero emissions across the country by 2050, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government said
on Tuesday. Reuters reports: Only zero-emissions cars and trucks can be sold from 2035,
according to a statement, adding that a mixture of investments and regulations will help
industry transition toward that goal. The government also said it will set interim targets for
2025 and 2030. "We are committed to aligning Canada's zero-emission vehicles sales targets with
those of the most ambitious North American jurisdictions," Environment Minister Jonathan
Wilkinson said in the statement. "We will work with the United States to harmonize fuel
efficiency regulations and we're investing in consumer rebates, charging stations, business tax
breaks and industry transition costs," Wilkinson added.
"Canada cannot reach our greenhouse gas targets if emissions from cars, SUVs and pickups,
which are currently growing, are not curtailed," said Keith Brooks, programs director at
advocacy group Environmental Defence, who welcomed the move. Brooks said only 3.5% of vehicles
now sold in Canada are electric and that the government needs to do more to support the market
for zero-emissions vehicles.
While the vast majority of us can eventually make do with electric cars, we have
roads in some places over a thousand kilometres long, with nothing on them. Think like the
Alaska Highway, but worse. I've driven on of them, up the east coast of Hudson Bay. It's
absolutely empty, and there's 8 hours between gas stations. Many ICE cars don't even have the
range do drive there as it is.
We have ice roads into northern communities that will soon (due to global warming) become an
even larger network of vast, desolate roads. The cost of installing electric charging stations
on these roads would be insurmountable. You're talking about tens , if not hundreds of
thousands of kilometres of new high-tension power lines. We just wouldn't be able to put
charging stations far enough out to make this feasible. So, sure, the vast majority of
cars could be electric by 2035, not all of them can be. Therefore a ban is not a realistic
solution.
I don't see it happening in 25 years to travel for a thousand km, in the dead of winter,
possibly towing a load. Is it possible? Sure. But I highly doubt it.
Plus, we have an election coming up, likely in the fall, and parliament is out for the
summer very soon. This is Trudeau's (and his party's) way of saying "Look at all the good I've
done! I'm hip and green!", without actually accomplishing anything, because as we all know, in
government terms, "in 25 years" means "I don't have a plan, I won't create a plan, and I'm
leaving this for someone else to solve. So... Coal power for
Canada, then... (
Score: 3 ) by gillbates (
106458 ) on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @10:46PM ( #61535766 )
Homepage Journal
The problem with electric cars is that they're coal powered cars. Instead of burning
half-hydrogen, half carbon, the power company energy comes entirely from carbon, and loses
about 10-15% of that power in the lines themselves. Sure, your power company *might* be using a
renewable energy source, but if they're not, your electric car is actually worse for the planet
than a conventional ICE powered vehicle.
Banning fuel powered vehicles is not the way to go. Instead, they should be looking into
carbon-neutral gasoline, diesel, and ethanol powered vehicles. That way, you get the benefits
of emissions reduction without forcing anyone to buy a new car or change their habits.
Yes, I know it takes a lot of energy to convert a biological carbon source into a
hydrocarbon - or a lot of acreage to grow the oil-rich plants like soybeans. But if we're
serious about mitigating global climate change, carbon-neutral hydrocarbon fuels are the most
realistic option available. And it can be done right now, today, with the technology we already
have. Why extreme
solutions? (
Score: 2 ) by joe_frisch (
1366229 ) on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @10:49PM ( #61535776 ) Why ban
ALL gas fueled vehicles. There are probably a variety of situations where electric vehicles are
not viable. Reducing to 10% gas has almost as big an effect and eliminates the extreme
situations.
Instead the people who need gas cars will either drive old, less efficient vehicles, or
heavy trucks which are exempt - both of which will increase emissions.
While 53.1 MJ/kg, for natural gas is correct the problem is getting this kilogram. You need
to liqidify gas to get a kilogram of gas in volume comparable with gasoline. It looks too high
for me. I think by MJ/m3 gasine solidly beats natural gas (even liquefied) in energy density. See
Specific Energy
and Energy Density of Fuels - Neutrium
... lithium had been thought to be the solution to the clean energy movement.
Unfortunately, it has been proven that lithium will not be able to provide enough power for
long-range trucks... ocean-going freighters... military vehicles...trains"¦ planes...
jets, and more.
Why? The story of energy transitions through history has been a constant move toward fuels
that are more energy-dense and convenient to use than the fuels they replaced.
Fossil fuels are the most energy-dense, making them hard to replace.
At 53.1 MJ/kg, natural gas boasts the highest energy density of any fossil fuel, followed by
gasoline at 45.8MJ/kg, and coal at 30.2MJ/kg.
Lithium-ion batteries--one of the most effective ways to store renewable energy--can only
afford an energy density of 0.504MJ/kg. That's 91 times less energy density than gasoline!
So, while lithium could become the predominant energy carrier for small vehicles like
cars and small vans...It simply doesn't appear to have enough power density to become practical
for larger truck and vicles that need to make long hauls.
While 53.1 MJ/kg, for natural gas is correct the problem is getting this kilogram. You need
to liqidify gas to get a kilogram of gas in volume comparable with gasoline. It looks too high
for me. I think by MJ/m3 gasine solidly beats natural gas (even liquefied) in energy density. See
Specific Energy
and Energy Density of Fuels - Neutrium
... lithium had been thought to be the solution to the clean energy movement.
Unfortunately, it has been proven that lithium will not be able to provide enough power for
long-range trucks... ocean-going freighters... military vehicles...trains"¦ planes...
jets, and more.
Why? The story of energy transitions through history has been a constant move toward fuels
that are more energy-dense and convenient to use than the fuels they replaced.
Fossil fuels are the most energy-dense, making them hard to replace.
At 53.1 MJ/kg, natural gas boasts the highest energy density of any fossil fuel, followed by
gasoline at 45.8MJ/kg, and coal at 30.2MJ/kg.
Lithium-ion batteries--one of the most effective ways to store renewable energy--can only
afford an energy density of 0.504MJ/kg. That's 91 times less energy density than gasoline!
So, while lithium could become the predominant energy carrier for small vehicles like
cars and small vans...It simply doesn't appear to have enough power density to become practical
for larger truck and vicles that need to make long hauls.
The U.S. is woefully unprepared to handle "the electrification of everything," as Amy Myers
Jaffe, a research professor at Tufts University's Fletcher School, describes the drive to
electrify transportation and buildings and parts of industry in The Wall Street
Journal .
Increased electrification in all sectors will need huge investments in the electric grid, in
battery storage to back up renewable power generation, in charging points for EVs, and in
technologies such as green hydrogen to help those technologies to reach maturity and cost
efficiency enough to start replacing fossil fuels.
"˜Not a chance' Tesla will dominate car industry in 20 years: legendary investor Bruce Greenwald
Max Zahn with Andy Serwer
Wed, May 26, 2021, 9:56 AM
In this article:
TSLA
+2.39%
Tesla (
TSLA
)
short sellers are up $4 billion so far this year, driven by the stock's fall back to earth after a steep rise of more than 695%
last year, according to an
analysis
by S3 partners that CNN reported
.
Investor Michael Burry, who
anticipated the 2008 housing collapse and was made famous by the book and movie "The Big Short," last week
revealed
that
his firm Scion Asset Management had joined the army of Tesla short sellers to the tune of more than 800,000 shares worth about
$534 million.
Now another legendary investor,
Columbia University Professor Emeritus Bruce Greenwald" whom The New York Times once
called
"a
guru to Wall Street's gurus"" says he doesn't think Tesla can live up to its astronomical market cap. But Greenwald
acknowledged he wouldn't short Tesla because many have gotten "slaughtered" doing it.
In a new interview, Greenwald
predicted that Tesla will fail to dominate the auto industry over the long term because of a likely explosion in the size of the
electric vehicle market and a lack of differentiation between Tesla's products and those of its competitors.
"Twenty years from now" you
really think that they're going to dominate the auto market?" Greenwald tells Yahoo Finance Editor-in-Chief Andy Serwer. "Not a
chance."
"We know what a competitive auto
market looks like," he adds. "Because in that market, most of the big companies have flirted with bankruptcy at one time or
another."
A Tesla that was involved in a fatal crash in Southern California last week was operating on
Autopilot at the time , it has been revealed. The crash is still is under investigation by the
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, a report from
ABC noted on Friday.
The crash, which took place on May 5 in Fontana, killed the 35 year old driver after his
Model 3 hit an overturned semi on the freeway. A second person was seriously injured after the
Model 3 hit him, while he was trying to help the driver of the overturned semi.
On Thursday of this week, the California Highway Patrol announced that the car was operating
on Autopilot, which has been no stranger to controversy involving fatal Tesla wrecks. This
wreck marks at least the fourth death in the U.S. involving Autopilot.
The information was so important, the CHP felt, that they shared it despite the ongoing
investigation, stating: "While the CHP does not normally comment on ongoing investigations, the
Department recognizes the high level of interest centered around crashes involving Tesla
vehicles. We felt this information provides an opportunity to remind the public that driving is
a complex task that requires a driver's full attention."
Just days prior, the CHP
arrested yet another Tesla driver who it said was in the back seat of his vehicle while it
barreled down Interstate 80 near Oakland. Autopilot or Full Self Driving were assumed to be
operating.
There is also an ongoing NHTSA investigation involving a fatal Tesla wreck that took place
in Houston weeks ago. The NTSB
has issued a preliminary report in that case, finding that a similar vehicle could have
engaged Traffic Aware Cruise Control, but not Autosteer, at the point where the crash took
place.
The NTSB concluded by stating that the investigation was ongoing and that it was working
with Harris County Texas Precinct 4:
The NTSB continues to collect data to analyze the crash dynamics, postmortem toxicology
test results, seat belt use, occupant egress, and electric vehicle fires. All aspects of the
crash remain under investigation as the NTSB determines the probable cause, with the intent
of issuing safety recommendations to prevent similar crashes. The NTSB is working alongside
the Harris County Texas Precinct 4 Constable's Office, which is conducting a separate,
parallel investigation.
Recall, it was Mark Herman, Harris County Constable Precinct 4, who was most skeptical of
Elon Musk's comments absolving Autopilot of liability last month, telling Reuters that the
police served search warrants on Tesla to secure data from the Model S.
Responding to Musk at the time, Herman said: "If he is tweeting that out, if he has already
pulled the data, he hasn't told us that. We will eagerly wait for that data."
"We have witness statements from people that said they left to test drive the vehicle
without a driver and to show the friend how it can drive itself ," Herman said according to the
Reuters report .
(hackaday.com) 124BeauHD on Monday February
08, 2021 @10:10PM from the clean-energy dept. A German research organization has developed a
magnesium-based "
Powerpaste " with an energy density ten times more than
current battery technology . Hackaday reports: We've been promised hydrogen-powered
engines for some time now. One downside though is the need for hydrogen vehicles to have heavy
high-pressure tanks. While a 700 bar tank and the accompanying fuel cell is acceptable for a
city bus or a truck, it becomes problematic with smaller vehicles, especially ones such as
scooters or even full-sized motorcycles. The Fraunhofer Institute wants to run smaller vehicles
on magnesium hydride in a paste form that they call POWERPASTE.
The idea is that the paste effectively stores hydrogen at normal temperature and
pressure. At 250C, the paste decomposes and releases its hydrogen. While your motorcycle may
seem hot when parked in the sun, it isn't getting quite to 250C. Interestingly, the paste only
provides half the available hydrogen. The rest is from water added start a reaction to release
the hydrogen. Fraunhofer claims the energy density available is greater than that of a 700 bar
tank in a conventional hydrogen system and ten times more than current battery
technology.
One thing that's attractive is that the paste is easy to store and pump. A gas station,
for example, could invest $20-30,000 and dispense the paste from a metal drum to meet low
demand and then scale up as needed. A hydrogen pumping setup starts at about $1.2 million.
Fraunhofer is building a pilot production plant that will produce about four tons of the
material a year.
The honeymoon between Tesla and China continue to sour as the Global Times , China's closest major
media organization to the state, published a horrifying image of a Tesla vehicle rear-ending a
truck in Shaoguan, South China's Guangdong Province on Friday, "killing the electric car's
driver on the spot."
Tesla can't catch a break in China. If state media wanted to protect the US car company,
they would've ignored the report; instead, they're drumming up bad press for Elon Musk. This
follows CCTV broadcaster calling for an
investigation last month into Tesla's brake failures following other incidents where the
electric cars have plowed into things.
In roughly three minutes, you can fill the gas tank of a Ford Mustang and have enough range to go about 300 miles with its V8
engine.
But for the
electric Mustang Mach-E
,
an hour plugged into a household outlet gave Bloomberg automotive analyst Kevin Tynan just three miles of range.
"Overnight, we're looking at 36 miles of range," he told Insider. "Before I gave it back to Ford, because I wanted to give it back
full, I drove it to the office and plugged in at the charger we have there."
Standard home outlets generally put out about 120 volts of power at what electric vehicle aficionados call "Level 1" charging, while
the high-powered specialty connections offer 240 volts of power and are known as "Level 2." By comparison, Tesla's "Superchargers,"
which can fully charge its cars in a little over an hour, offer 480 volts of direct current.
That difference is night and day, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Energy by University of California Davis
researchers Scott Hardman and Gil Tal that surveyed
Californians
who purchased an electric vehicle
between 2012 and 2018.
Roughly one in five plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) owners switched back to owning gas-powered cars, in large part because charging
the batteries was a pain in the trunk, the researchers found.
Of those who switched, over 70% lacked access to Level 2 charging at home, and slightly fewer than that lacked Level 2 connections
at their workplace.
"If you don't have a Level 2, it's almost impossible," said Tynan, who has tested a wide range of makes and models of PEVs over the
years for his research.
Even with the faster charging, a Chevy Volt he tested still needed nearly six hours to top its range back up to 300 miles from
nearly empty -- something that takes him just minutes at the pump with his family SUV.
Public charging stations may look like the electric version of the gas station, but nearly two-thirds of PEV drivers in the survey
said they didn't use them. Exactly why they didn't use the public stalls was not specified.
EVs have come a long way in recent years in terms of range, safety, comfort, and tech features, but Hardman and Tal note that very
little has changed in terms of how they are recharged.
The researchers warned that this trend could make it harder to achieve electric vehicle sales targets in California and other
countries, and the growth of the market overall.
Two U.S. senators have expressed concern about what they said may be an emerging pattern of
safety concerns involving Tesla Inc. TSLA -3.28% vehicles in the wake
of a fatal crash in Texas.
In a letter Thursday to America's top automotive-safety regulator, Sen. Richard Blumenthal
of Connecticut and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts urged the agency to develop recommendations
for improving advanced driver-assistance systems such as Tesla's Autopilot.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has opened a probe into
the weekend crash , one of more than two dozen investigations it has launched into
Tesla-involved crashes. The agency has said that most of those investigations are related to
the vehicles' advanced driver-assistance features.
"We fear safety concerns involving these vehicles are becoming a pattern, which is
incredibly worrisome and deserves your undivided attention," the Democratic senators wrote
about Tesla in the letter, which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal.
... ... ...
Consumer Reports on Thursday said it
had done tests this week in which it was able to get a different Tesla model's Autopilot to
operate without anyone in the driver's seat. The vehicle, which uses steering-wheel inputs to
assess driver attention, didn't send any warnings about an empty driver's seat, Consumer
Reports said. The organization attached a weight to a Model Y's steering wheel to simulate a
hand during the testing.
"I was really shocked how easy it was to do it," said Jake Fisher, the group's senior
director of auto testing, one of the people involved in the test-track experiment. "When you
have an automation system like that which explicitly needs a driver to be ready to take over at
any time, you have to make sure that someone is actually engaged."
Tesla didn't respond to a request for comment on the Consumer Reports finding.
I continue to be amazed that serious people think that gasoline powered vehicles can be
completely replaced by electric vehicles in a decade-and-a-half, and that this would be a good
thing, even if possible. Under threat of government action, however, the world's major auto
manufacturers are falling in line boosting production of plug-in models, and upstart Tesla
Motors is now the world's most valuable auto manufacture, based on the value of its capital
stock issued and in the public's hands. Mary T. Barra, CEO of General Motors, has pledged to
sell only zero emission vehicles by 2035 . That
would meet the deadline imposed by California Governor Gavin Newsom, who signed an executive
order banning the sale of internal combustion vehicles in the nation's largest car market by
2035.
Charging electrric cars at work makes sense, as it rquires several hours. But what if you
want to drive on a long trip? Photo credit: Felix
Cramer CC-BY-SA 2.0 license
GM, rescued from liquidation courtesy of US taxpayers (and bondholders who were cheated out
of their place in line as creditors by the Obama administration), may simply be sucking up to
governmental power. But Akio Toyoda, CEO of Toyota Motors, the world's largest (or second
largest, depending on the year). and grandson of the automaker's founder, has spoken out and
called out fallacy of thinking that this is possible or desirable. [I must here disclose that I
was a consultant for a Toyota company for several years, but that all my comments on the
company here are based on publicly available information.]
As the grandson of Toyota founder, Kiichiro Toyoda, the scion was raised surrounded by all
aspects of the auto industry and his business acumen is second to none. So when he had some
harsh words for electric vehicles at the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association
end-of-year press conference last week, people took notice.
The Wall Street Journal was in attendance and noted the CEO's disdain for EVs boils down
to his belief they'll ruin businesses, require massive investments, and even emit more carbon
dioxide than combustion-engined vehicles. "The current business model of the car industry is
going to collapse," he said. "The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets When
politicians are out there saying, 'Let's get rid of all cars using gasoline,' do they
understand this?"
Studies detailing the carbon emissions necessary to manufacture an electric vehicle reveal
that on a net basis, there are more emissions for vehicle bought and used for its expected
lifetime, than would be generated by buying and using a conventional gasoline-powered
vehicle.
Toyota can certainly make electric powered vehicles. It introduced the hybrid Prius, after
all, and has a strong position in that market. Toyota's mastery of the discipline of mass
production of vehicles is such that it could do well no matter what power source is used. But
the costs of complete conversion to electricity-powered vehicles are mind boggling.
Where will all, the electricity needed to power to entire fleet of cars in the US (or Japan)
come from? Despite the fantasies of greenies, it won't be from windmills or solar farms. They
are too unreliable, take up too much land, and cost too much. Right now, it is coal and natural
gas that produce the most electricity at the most reasonable cost. And they emit CO2. Plus,
there is considerable loss of power due to resistance in the transmission lines, requiring an
even greater amount of gross power before the net power reaches the battery in the vehicle,
charging at the user's home ort some other location. Nuclear power does offer some potential,
but how many people want to live near the hundreds and hundreds of nuclear power plants that
would be required to fuel the nation's vehicles?
Then there is the small matter of batteries. The very large batteries needed for electric
cars use lots of expensive lithium (and some other rare elements) whose supply is limited, and
whose mining requires lots of scarce water. In fact, powering the world's vehicles by battery
is simply impossible, given the limited world supply of lithium, as this
clever post by Powerline's Steve Hayward makes clear. The title gives away the
punchline:
WHO WILL TELL THE GREENS THERE IS NO BATTERY FAIRY?
For the longest while I have been asking, "Where do environmentalists and Democrats think
all these batteries for our oil-free transportation fleet are going to come from?" It seems
they think there is a Battery Fairy out there somewhere who will magically supply the
ginormous battery capacity, and additional supply of electricity to charge them, in order to
deliver us to our blessed fossil-fuel-free future.
But there's a problem. As the world scrambles to replace fossil fuels with clean energy,
the environmental impact of finding all the lithium required to enable that transformation
could become a serious issue in its own right. "One of the biggest environmental problems
caused by our endless hunger for the latest and smartest devices is a growing mineral crisis,
particularly those needed to make our batteries," says Christina Valimaki an analyst at
Elsevier. . .
It's a relatively cheap and effective process, but it uses a lot of water –
approximately 500,000 gallons per tonne of lithium. In Chile's Salar de Atacama, mining
activities consumed 65 per cent of the region's water. That is having a big impact on local
farmers – who grow quinoa and herd llamas – in an area where some communities
already have to get water driven in from elsewhere. . .
Two other key ingredients, cobalt and nickel, are more in danger of creating a bottleneck
in the move towards electric vehicles, and at a potentially huge environmental cost. Cobalt
is found in huge quantities right across the Democratic Republic of Congo and central Africa,
and hardly anywhere else. The price has quadrupled in the last two years.
I am glad that some grownups are pointing out that the electric vehicle conversion emperor
has no clothes on. But that hasn't stopped governments, manufacturers, and investors from
pretending that electric vehicles are our only future.
As Herbert Stein famously said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." We're
only beginning to discover that about pipe dreams of an all-electric vehicle future.
As to whether EVs are as environmentally friendly as many people claim is a topic that is
hotly debated. The chart near the top of this article screams that they are not. Electricity
demand is still rising across the world, most nuclear plants getting very old, and the most
ecologically friendly sources are running full out. This means the slack is being taken up by
fossil-fuel generated plants. Under the idea of, last in first out, this would mean that almost
all the juice being pumped into EVs comes from fossil-fuel generated juice. To make matters
worse, other issues exist.
Below are a few comments, or parts of comments, about EVs that have been gathered from
different recent articles. I have not fully researched all these but they do add to my doubts
about these vehicles.
The Greenwashing Industrial Complex is one of the evilest and fraudulent scams of the
21st century. As an example, the pollution and environmental destruction created by the
manufacturing and disposal of EV batteries, and also the magnets for power-generating
windmills, is 10X worse than pollution created by fossil-fuel vehicles.
In Germany about 40% of the energy mix is produced by coal and 30% by renewables - a
mid-sized electric car must be driven for
125,000 km , on average, to break even with a diesel car, and 60,000 km compared to a
petrol car. It takes nine years for an electric car to be greener than a diesel car,
assuming an annual average mileage of 13,500 km. Most consumers will have bought a new car
by then. The case is similar in the U.S. but less pronounced in
nuclear-powered France .
Battery production causes more environmental damage than carbon emissions alone.
Consider dust, fumes, wastewater, and other environmental impacts from cobalt mining in the
Democratic Republic of the Congo;
water shortages and toxic
spills from lithium mining in Latin America, which can alter ecosystems and hurt local
communities; a heavily polluted river due to
nickel mining in Russia; or
air pollution in northeastern China, as mentioned above.
There isn't enough cobalt in the world to replace even half of the current ICE vehicles.
Never mind the fact they have kids mining the stuff in the Congo. InsideSources
, says, every EV battery contains cobalt, with most of it mined in the Democratic Republic
of Congo (DRC). This area has been an ugly mess for years as the Congo government and armed
militants duke it out over the control of mines. Much of the DRC cobalt is then hauled to
South Africa and shipped to China for processing.
Also flowing into the issue of " less damaging to the environment" is something recently
brought to my attention, and that is, EVs tend to rapidly eat through tires. While many people
may not think this is a big deal, it is. Since electric car batteries are heavier than petrol
engines they need a more robust tire. Also, because of their accelerating faster from a
standstill. If you want to take advantage of that without too much wear then you need a more
robust tire, these cost more, and it has been said, you are lucky if you get 20,000 miles out
of a set of tires. All this is addressed at,
https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-electric-cars-wear-out-tires-faster-than-fossil-fuel-cars
Pollution From Tires Is A Growing EV Issue
Like many people I had forgotten or brushed aside the thought something as simple and common
as the tire was such a problem. This should have been high on my radar because years ago I was
given a building simply because it had been filled with tires. The officials in my city were
all over the owner to get rid of them. It cost me a bit of money and a lot of work to have them
hauled away and properly recycled. With that in mind, below are a few of the many articles
voicing pollution issues concerning tires.
Homeguides.sfgate.com claims; Toxins released from tire decomposition, incineration, or
accidental fires can pollute the water, air, and soil. While 42 states regulate tire disposal
to some degree, eight states have no restrictions on what you must do with your discarded
tires. Even with laws in place, illegal dumping still occurs, presenting negative environmental
impacts.
Tiretechnologyinternational.com states; Air pollution from tire wear particles can be 1,000
times worse than what comes out of a car's exhaust, Emissions Analytics found harmful particle
matter from tires is a serious environmental problem. What is even more frightening is that
while exhaust emissions have been tightly regulated for many years, tire wear is not. With the
increasing growth in sales of heavier SUVs and battery-powered electric cars, non-exhaust
emissions are a growing problem.
And, www.politico.eu/article/tires , delves into how
driving affects the environment in ways beyond the well-known pollutants spewing from tailpipes
and leaking from engines. Tires shed tiny pieces of plastic as they wear down, accounting for
about 10 percent of the microscopic pieces of the pollutant found in the sea, according to one
estimate. Tire waste was addressed in the European Commission's Plastics
Strategy earlier this year. The EU executive is looking into how to cut down on
microplastics that may be coming from tires and is considering regulations.
With all the above in mind, the buzz in EV trading over the last couple of weeks has
interestingly been surrounding legacy automakers like General Motors and, even Ford moving
strongly in the direction of manufacturing more EVs. This may someday be seen as a huge
environmental misstep. The best answer may be a shift to more efficient gasoline engines in
smaller vehicles. 4,675 20 NE play_arrow
thezone 20 minutes ago (Edited)
Here in California the electric grid is near collapse. We're all nervous if they start
having millions of vehicles plugging in.
Probably rations and random outages coming.
Fat Beaver 15 minutes ago
Maybe someone can help out here but i remember in school we learned that electric loses
about 60% of it's energy thru losses from extraction to end user (mostly lost in resistance
thru transmission lines if i remember right). And gas is 90 something percent efficient...i'm
all for alternatives to fossil fuels but we gotta be realistic...we need to look at
hydrogen... especially solar/hydrogen used together. This solar and wind power sht is the
biggest monetary scam in history, and the electric vehicle scam might take it over.
HC-CZ 5 minutes ago
Agree on everything, but one part is missed. And it is a biggie.
The electricity required to power all the EVs in the world is much higher than what we use
now. And since natural gas is frowned upon, the extra generating capacity is even higher. An
electric cooktop is 8000 watts, your EV charger is about 9000 watts for the small ones.
Therefore, the entire electrical grid would need to be replaced to have enough capacity to
feed all these new electrical requirements.
Youri Carma 17 minutes ago (Edited) remove link
Then there is the issue of energy transition loss.
1. First electricity is produced in a powerplant,
2. then that energy is transported to a place where yo can charge your battery,
3. then the battery has to be charged,
4. then the battery has to transport the energy to the electric motor,
5. then the electric motor has to transform this energy into kinetic energy.
A worldwide outage has hit Tesla's app and website, leaving many drivers locked out of their
own vehicles. Helpless customers vented their anger online while the system was down for
several hours
Hundreds of Tesla owners around the world reported having trouble logging into the
automaker's app and website on Wednesday.
Frustrated customers flocked to Downdetector, which tracks outages of online services in
real time, lamenting about missed appointments and berating the Elon Musk-owned company for
taking its time to resolve the issue.
Customers also took aim at Tesla for lacking any backup support that would spare owners the
inconvenience of having to carry their physical key on them at any given time.
"Man I was supposed to snag my new m3 today! Cancelled! LAAAME. Time to invest in a
working BCP plan tesla," Kevin Taylor wrote.
"How can the most valuable car company in the world not have the backup support for a
problem like this?" another commenter asked, adding "This shouldn't be down for more
than an hour."
Others went on to accuse Tesla, which is yet to comment on the issue, of leaving its
customers in the dark about the global tech failure.
"I'm stranded as I don't have the key card with me and need to enable driving with my
phone. I cannot believe there is no announcement from tesla on what the time frame is we are
looking at for them to be back online," a disgruntled driver wrote.
The glitch has apparently prompted some would-be Tesla owners to doubt the wisdom of
investing in the high-dollar electric cars.
"I am supposed to pick up my Tesla today, and they told me [the] system was down while I
was on uber, damn it! I have a second thought now," LukeY wrote.
While Tesla owners were impatiently waiting for the phone app to spring back to life,
pundits on Twitter cast their woes as a prime example of the modern over-reliance on tech.
It was just hours ago that
we highlighted a wreck where a Tesla slammed into the back of (yet another) inanimate fire
truck.
And yet again, here we are with another "peculiar" sounding Tesla accident. This one
involving a Tesla that ran a red light near Los Angeles, California and slammed into another
vehicle on Sunday, killing two people.
According to
KTLA 5 , the incident took place at Vermont Ave and Artesia Blvd. on Sunday. The driver of
the 2016 Tesla exited the westbound 91 freeway "at a high speed" and then failed to stop at a
red light at the next intersection. As a result, he slammed into a 2006 Honda Civic at the
light.
Two vehicle occupants have been seriously injured after a Tesla slammed into the back of a
Cloverdale Township Volunteer Fire Department Truck early Sunday morning. According to the
Greencastle Banner-Graphic , the accident took place in Cloverdale, IN.
The fire truck was in the eastbound lands of the interstate, responding to an earlier wreck,
when a Tesla ran into the rear of the truck, causing "heavy damage" to both.
Reports from the scene indicated that both the driver and the passenger were unconscious and
trapped. There is no word yet on whether or not Autopilot played a role in the accident.
Both occupants were extricated from the vehicle and the Indiana State Police said that the
accident involved "serious personal injury."
Recall, this is not the first time a Tesla has slammed into the back of an inanimate fire
truck. In 2018,
an accident occurred when a driver smashed into the back of a fire truck in Southern
California. That driver was found to have been "looking down" at "what appeared to be a mobile
phone" while the car's Autopilot was engaged, according to
Bloomberg .
I see EVs and modern ICE vehicles as too complicated, even though they seem quite reliable
for a few hundred K Km. My God, even modern tire valve stems have batts and transmitters
linked to idiot displays because people are now too stupid to check their tire inflation.
Valve stem price $200 $300 per? Extrapolate to battery and propulsion software, (proprietary
software), that stops all future jobber replacement parts beyond belts and fluids.
Anyway, I have a rebuilt 1981 Westfalia that looks and runs like a dream. It is worth more
than I have invested in it, in fact it is currently worth 7X what my showroom condition 2005
GMC work truck is worth, (The truck with 150,000 Km on it and maintained to new condition).
The most complicated system on the Westie is a resistor pack "running" some intake temp
sensors to adjust mixture mix on startup. My electronic tech buddy was looking to fix a
friends jeep last week. The horn wouldn't work. He thought it was .well, a horn. No it isn't.
It is a sending unit that transits to a brain box that sends a signal to a device that says,
"Make horn noise now". Computerised, of course. My Father- in-law had some kind of Buick that
would flash the occasional warning light about a door. Price to swap out the module? $900.
Excess complexity needless complexity.
I keep seeing a modern Mad Max in my head. Instead of an insanely laughing Mel Gibson hot
wiring a fuel tanker we'll see a meter toting nerd testing leads and wires and asking if
anyone can read this damn code?
Paulo, your meter toting nerd is more likely going to be a nerd with a laptop, an OBD port
dongle and a Controller Area Network Bus (CANBUS) sniffing setup, fuming about a strange
(proprietary) implementation of the CANBUS protocol. My undestanding of the CANBUS
arrangement is that all devices are attached to the Controller Area Network (CAN) and
assigned a unique id. In the case of the friend's jeep, pressing the horn button results in a
packet being sent across the CAN addressed to the horn. All devices on the network receive
the packet but only the horn responds to it and switches on. I assume a second packet would
switch it off.
The theory is that CANBUS should allow a single network/power cable to daisy chain to all
the devices in the vehicle and control them, as opposed to having, for example, several wires
to control three speed wipers with intermittent wiping as well. It remains to be seen how
well CANBUS will stand the test of time but, it is likely to see increased adoption,
especially with EVs.
Hi Paulo,
I share your concern about vehicles becoming too complex to fix with local skill/local
machine, etc. I used to handle many repair tasks myself when younger, but things have become
a complicated spaghetti mess under hood.
And of course, this problem affects just about all kinds of vehicles built in past 3-4
decades. I'd guess well over 95% of the vehicles running around on the roads are 'fragile'
due to complexity of the systems. EV maybe less so, since there are simply less systems at
play.
A guy in Germany has over 900,000 km on a Tesla. I'm guessing he had had to have the battery
pack changed out, but didn't see that info.
Another issue along these lines is the energy supply line.
With Petrol, there a very complicated system to get the juice from the source rock to the
target tank. Such as a refinery.
That looks very fragile to me.
Reliance on that kind of complex system in a chaotic world is very risky.
The supply line for electricity can be just as complex, but just like you point out the
possibilities with the Westfalia, I point out that the electricity supply line can also be
much simpler. If you have some equipment (dry solid material with no moving parts- PV panels,
inverter, wiring/plug), your personal or local supply change for transport juice can be very
short, and durable.
Tesla reaches 10 billion electric miles with a global fleet of half a million cars
Fred Lambert
- Nov. 16th 2018 6:02 am ET
Tesla's global fleet is growing at a record pace and we now learn that it reached a total of
10 billion electric miles with half a million cars this week.
Back in October 2016, we reported on Tesla reaching the 3 billion electric mile milestone
and the company's global fleet managed to add 500 million more miles 3 months later –
bringing the total to 3.5 billion in December and another half a billion more by March
2017.
At the time, Tesla's fleet was driving about 5 million miles a day on average.
We were able to track the progress through the Tesla road trip page and Tesla confirmed
that its global fleet reached over 5 billion electric miles driven in July 2017.
The average went up to almost 7 million miles per day when Tesla slowly started Model 3
production.
Tesla removed the counter from the Tesla road trip page and we haven't been able to track
the fleet mileage as consistently.
But a source familiar with the data point confirmed to Electrek that the fleet surpassed 9
billion total miles in September and at the time, Tesla drivers averaged almost 20 million
miles per day – close to 4 times the average from just 2 years ago.
At the time, we noted that at that pace, the fleet would reach 10 billion miles before
Thanksgiving and sure enough, the same source confirmed to Electrek that Tesla's fleet
reached 10 billion electric miles yesterday.
The Tesla global fleet also reached a total of 500,000 vehicles around the world just a
day before.
Electrek's Take
That's a great milestone because it's 10 billion miles that would have been powered by gas
or diesel and it's now powered by electricity.
While it doesn't mean that it's always completely clean, it at least has the potential to
be clean. Between my Model S and Model 3, I have several thousand miles of my own in this
total and most of them were powered by clean hydro from Quebec.
It's the case for many other Tesla owners around the world and for those in places where
electricity is still generated through polluting sources, EV owners are adding solar power at
a higher rate, which is resulting in their cars being powered by the sun.
I think it's truly an exciting time for electric vehicles and it's just the beginning. We
are going to see many new models creating a lot of growth in the next few years and not just
from Tesla.
If you are a Tesla owner, let us know in the comment section below how many miles you
contributed to that 10 billion-mile milestone.
*
[In comparison, the total US vehicle miles driven each year is only about 3.2 trillion
vehicle miles.]
"... The demand for renewable energy and storage technologies will far exceed the reserves for cobalt, lithium and nickel. In the case of cobalt, of which 58 per cent is currently mined in the DR of Congo, it has helped fuel a conflict that has blighted the lives of millions, led to the contamination of air, water and soil, and left the mining area as one of the top 10 most polluted places in the world. ..."
"... According to a recent report from the DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (via Charged), plug-in vehicles displaced 323 million gallons of gasoline in the US in 2018. That's still a mere drop in the gas can: it amounts to 0.25% of all gasoline used in the US in that year (another dose of reality: the increasing popularity of trucks and SUVs has more than wiped out all the emissions reductions from EVs). ..."
My attention was caught yesterday by a press release from the UK's Natural History
Museum, authored by a group of British geoscientists:
The letter explains that to meet UK electric car targets for 2050 we would need to
produce just under two times the current total annual world cobalt production, nearly the
entire world production of neodymium, three quarters the world's lithium production and at
least half of the world's copper production.
A friend alerted me to a piece by Asad Rehman of War on Want, provocatively entitled The
'green new deal' supported by Ocasio-Cortez and Corbyn is just a new form of colonialism
which makes the point:
The demand for renewable energy and storage technologies will far exceed the reserves
for cobalt, lithium and nickel. In the case of cobalt, of which 58 per cent is currently
mined in the DR of Congo, it has helped fuel a conflict that has blighted the lives of
millions, led to the contamination of air, water and soil, and left the mining area as one
of the top 10 most polluted places in the world.
In a sense hybrid cars are more promising as they have much smaller battery and as such
consume less rare elements per car.
It looks like the current stress on "pure" EV is really unhealthy and unscientific.
You are right in your belief that people will not want to change their lifestyles, but they
will, there will be no choice and soon they will mostly forgot how it was in the past.
2050 will be a very different world than the present, and 2080 will again be a very different
world.
Specific societal projections into the future beyond about 10 years are pure fantasy and
should be ignored.
Some major physical changes are underway on this planet which will change everything. Those
should not be ignored.
There's an enormous amount of lithium out there – far more than the proven reserves
of the USGS, which were never, ever intended to be used for this kind of long-term planning
exercise. But it doesn't really matter.
There are many, many different chemistries for making batteries. Lead, aluminum, sulfur,
iron the list is almost as long as the periodic table. Lithium has a little higher energy
density than most, but they'd all work, in a pinch.
For instance, there was a company recently developing an advanced lead battery that was at
least twice as energy dense as convention lead-acid and half the cost, but it couldn't quite
compete with the li-ion juggernaut, and it went out of business.
Think VHS vs Beta. Beta was better, but VHS was a bit cheaper and better marketed, and got
to economies of scale before Beta. Both worked.
Think Laserdisc vs Blueray. Laserdisc was a bit larger, and it didn't quite compete with
DVD and Blueray. But it worked just fine.
The one really critical point that Tesla bashers are VERY careful to avoid is that Tesla's
market cap at the lowest point a few days back was still roughly eighty percent of Ford's and
not much less than that, about sixty five percent ( mental arithmetic in both cases) of GM .
and that Tesla manufactures only a tiny percentage of the volume of these two old line
companies. FOR NOW, lol.
Folks who bought GM years ago haven't seen any stock price appreciation worth writing home
about it. Ditto Ford.
Tesla even in the dumps is a big winner for long term investors.
According to a recent report from the DOE's Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable
Energy (via Charged), plug-in vehicles displaced 323 million gallons of gasoline in the US
in 2018. That's still a mere drop in the gas can: it amounts to 0.25% of all gasoline used
in the US in that year (another dose of reality: the increasing popularity of trucks and
SUVs has more than wiped out all the emissions reductions from EVs).
However, the trend of falling demand for gas is gathering speed. The amount of gasoline
displaced was about 42% higher in 2018 than in 2017, and about double the amount in 2016.
Furthermore, the share of pure electric vehicles is growing. Gasoline displacement from
pure EVs versus plug-in hybrids was evenly split in 2012 and 2013, but in 2018, EVs
accounted for two thirds of the displacement.
As gas consumption begins to fall, electricity consumption is rising. Another DOE report
shows that the amount of energy consumed by plug-in vehicles in the US has nearly doubled
in the last two years, from 1.44 terawatt hours in 2016 to 2.85 TWh in 2018. Here we also
see the trend toward pure EVs – in 2018, pure EVs accounted for 61% of electricity
consumption from plug-in vehicles, while plug-in hybrids accounted for 39%.
Tech: "Tesla Fires Sound Alarms About Safety of Electric-Car Batteries" [
Industry Week ]. "For EVs, the risk of a fire or explosion is comparable -- or potentially
slightly lower -- than for gas or diesel-fueled models, according to a 2017 report by the U.S.
National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
However, safety risks may increase as manufacturers work to boost performance and push
battery cells closer to their limits, the study found Rapid growth means the sector 'will no
doubt see increasing quality control issues with the supply chain,' [Simon Moores, London-based
managing director of industry consultant Benchmark Mineral Intelligence] said. 'The biggest
challenge for all EV makers is to ensure quality and consistency runs right through the supply
chain -- from raw material selection to chemicals to battery cell -- and into the pack and
vehicle.'" •
The Tesla Model S had been been parked in San Po Kong Plaza for about half an hour on May 12
before the battery started emit to smoke and flames appeared, according to the report. There
were sounds of explosions and firefighters took about 45 minutes to extinguish the blaze, the
Economic Times reported.
It was the first fire of its kind in the city, the report said.
Tesla didn't have a comment on the matter, a Beijing-based spokeswoman for the company said.
Hong Kong's Fire Services Department is investigating the May 12 fire, a representative said,
declining to identify the make of the car.
Last month, videos on social media showed a car bearing a Tesla logo in Shanghai emitting
smoke before bursting into flames, while rival NIO Inc. said one of its ES8 electric vehicles
caught fire in the north-west Chinese city of Xi'an while being repaired. Tesla and NIO said
they were looking into the reports.
The incidents have fueled concern over the safety of EVs in China. In 2018, China recorded
at least 40 fire-related incidents involving new-energy vehicles, a fleet that includes pure
battery electric, hybrid plug-in and fuel-cell vehicles, according to the State Administration
for Market Regulation.
With Tesla already facing stiff competition from high end retailers like Audi and Jaguar -
both of whom have introduced luxury performance electric vehicles – Volkswagen is now
posing an additional threat that could impact middle market buyers of Tesla's Model 3.
In fact, Volkswagen has invested $34 billion in a strategy to try and take down Tesla as the
leader in electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg. The company is now taking €1000
deposits for its new ID.3 hatchback, which Volkswagen is hoping will be the electric successor
to its iconic Beetle. The vehicle will start at less than €30,000, which is about the same
price as the diesel variant of its Golf hatchback.
VW sales chief Juergen Stackmann said recently: "We are not playing. This is the car to beat
for the future, for all our competitors."
The ID.3 marks the beginning of a roll out of more than 20 battery powered models over the
coming years for Volkswagen. Their target is to sell more than 1 million electric cars annually
by 2025 and the company's effort will undoubtedly continue to stoke the fire of competition in
electric vehicles. Unlike Tesla, profitability remains paramount for VW. Stackmann continued,
saying that VW's EVs "must make money."
The introduction of the ID.3 comes on the precipice of electric vehicles breaking through to
the mass market, which still hasn't happened in full yet.
VW is offering a special edition of the vehicle, limited to 30,000 vehicles and inclusive of
a year of free charging at certain stations. Reservations have been opened for customers in 29
countries across Europe, including Germany, Norway and the Netherlands. The car will be
officially unveiled in September, and Stackmann expects the company reservation book to be full
ahead of the event.
The first "limited-edition" run of the vehicle will cost less than €40,000 and have a
range of ~260 miles. The basic version will have a range of ~180 miles and the top-of-the-line
model will have a range ~330 miles.
The number of electric vehicles is increasing rapidly, but at great human cost.
You probably have not heard anything other than praise for
electric cars in the mainstream
media. They are sexy and environmentally friendly too, we are told. The first may be true, but not the latter.
Batteries are not good for the environment, and their raw materials are mined at the expense of human health.
Rare Earth Metals
Rare earth metals are needed to make efficient batteries. The minerals are found in low densities in the earth's crust, and tons
of rock need to be mined, filtered, and transported in order to find the amount required to make a vehicle battery. Typically, the
energy needed to create them exceeds the amount that they store during their lifetime. That is why they are so expensive.
Congo
Cobalt is one of the ingredients needed to make batteries. In 2018, 70% of this mineral came from the Democratic Republic of Congo
in Central Africa. The metal is mined by poor Congolese people who work under conditions that would have been unthinkable and highly
illegal in any Western country. Accidents are common, sometimes killing the miners.
Little attention is given to those who toil to make wealthy Western environmentalists happy. It is not uncommon for green ideals
to be at odds with human health. DDT is a miracle chemical that was used to eradicate malaria in America and Europe, but environmentalists
were able to de facto ban it in the 1970s, resulting in tens of millions of unnecessary deaths in developing nations.
Similarly, Norman Borlaug initiated what is known as the green revolution in farming. His work earned him a Nobel Peace Prize
in 1970, and he became known as "the man who saved a billion lives." Everyone loved him, except
radical
environmentalists . They successfully managed to prevent him from applying his farming techniques in Africa, which resulted in
the needless suffering and deaths of millions of Africans.
It should, therefore, come as no surprise that environmentalists have
little concern for the lives
of miners in Congo.
Hybrids
The rational alternative to electric vehicles, which is both good for the environment and for human health and prosperity, is
the chargeable hybrid. An average car owner drives less than 50 miles per day, but electric vehicles strive to give you a range of
300 miles or more per charge. This means that they will be equipped with batteries that are six times larger than is needed for daily
usage. Thus, six times more rare earth metals must be mined at a greater human, environmental, and economic cost than is necessary.
The chargeable hybrid solves this problem by having a much smaller battery, but also a small gasoline engine that kicks in on
the rare occasions when you need to drive longer.
When you are driving in the city, you will mostly be in electrical mode, thereby not contributing significantly to noise and pollutants
from the gasoline. Thus, you are environmentally friendly where it is most needed – in densely populated areas.
When the battery is small, no special high-power charger is needed. Instead, you can just plug the car into an ordinary socket
and charge it overnight. In short, you get all the benefits of having an electric vehicle, but none of its downsides.
So why are hybrids not more popular? They are not "pure" enough for environmentalists. They hate fossil fuels and don't want to
sully their green souls. For that reason, hybrids are not the focus of research and development that they deserve. That's a shame
because they genuinely have the potential to be a competitive alternative to the ordinary gasoline car – without nearly as many skeletons
in the closet.
Concerns about the safety of Tesla's "Autopilot" continue to swirl after a new video of a
Model 3 crash surfaced this weekend on Twitter. The video, posted to Twitter on Saturday, shows
a Model 3 with its autopilot engaged going up a relatively routine exit ramp at a speed that
appears to just be about 25mph.
The ramp is congested and traffic is moving relatively normally, until the turn creates such
an angle that the only thing visible in front of the Tesla is a black Subuaru Forester, which
may or may not have blended into the color of the road ahead of the Tesla. That's when Tesla's
Autopilot makes the bold, if inexplicable, decision to accelerate directly into the back of the
Forester:
Eh, probably 100 drivers fell asleep that same day and crashed they just barely make the
news. The statistics will show the truth eventually. Most every Tesla crash makes news and
none of Kia's do. Only 3 million fires but we have heard about the dozen or so of Tesla's
problems. Not that I am advocating for Tesla I think electric cars are idiotic but eventually
government will force us all to have one and for the control systems to keep us from breaking
any laws including going 5 mph over the speed limit.
Citigroup researchers point out Tesla's stock has long been valued as if it's selling a look
into the future of driving. Hence, investors have usually been willing to overlook Tesla's
sales stumbles as it works to ramp production and stoke demand.
But Tesla's disastrous first quarter (which includes mixed messages around store closures
and profitability) suggests consumers think Tesla's electric cars are overpriced versus their
utility. In other words, they are more carefully weighing the options of going fully electric
via Tesla versus a range of more affordable options in the category (including hybrids).
While there are some Tesla specific factors in play here such as its ongoing production
problems, the steep fall-off in demand to kick off 2019 is likely to be a greater weight to
Tesla's stock near-term. Without steady demand for Tesla's cars, it could set off a host of
negatives for Tesla such as debt raises and more price cuts on its cars.
My 02 gets 48 at 55 mph, 44 at 75-80, in town, around 40, has 150K on it
Assuming 12K miles per year you get 12 years.
So 8 years is not unreasonable and probably is too low (sorry I can't find the academic
reference I used right now)
BTW replacement cost of the battery for Leaf is around $5.5K and even for Leaf you get
something like 6 years.
Nick Gx Ignored says:
03/01/2019 at
7:34 pmIn does not make much sense to waste 30% or more of natural gas this way, in comparison with using nat gas for transportation
directly
Natural gas can be burned at 60% efficiency in central electrical generation plants, which is about 3x as efficient as NG cars.
So, EVs make perfect sense, even if the grid is 100% NG. But the grid isn't 100% NG, and EVs can charge when wind and solar are strongest
and need the extra demand: 2 AM and 2 PM.
Reply
But assuming 10% losses in transmission and 20% losses in charging
0.6*0.9*08=0.43
In the past years, GDI (Gasoline Direct Injection) increased the efficiency of the engines equipped with this fueling system up
to 35%. I think natural gas has similar efficiency.
So EVs beat natural gas auto by around 8% in optional temperature for EV (60-75F range) and I was incorrect. Sorry about that.
In colder weather gas powered cars will always beat EV due to losses in EV for heating.
I think that might be true for driving with air conditions too.
What advantages of natural gas remain? I think the only one is that you can use existing cars with a very small modification of
injection system.
NOTE: It looks like cited by you efficiency of 60% is the upper limit of gas turbine efficiency (38% might be more reasonable):
Gas turbines in the simple cycle mode, only Gas turbines running, have an efficiency of 32 % to 38 %. The most important parameter
that dictates the efficiency is the maximum gas temperature possible. The latest Gas Turbines with technological advances in materials
and aerodynamics has efficiencies upto 38 %. In the combined cycle mode, the new "H class" Gas turbines with a triple pressure
HRSG and steam turbine can run at 60 % efficiency at ISO conditions. This is by far the highest efficiency in the thermal power
field.
Transport makes up another 25% or so. That is why I'm interested in battery electric
vehicles. Eventually the vast majority of vehicles will have to be battery powered or just
something other than petroleum based fuels. My hope is that the good people in the oil patch
can keep things going long enough for the transition to get started in earnest.
I did an exercise once in which I calculated that, for a particular year, it would
required less than 20% of the electricity produced in that year to power an all electric,
light vehicle fleet in the US. If renewables were to grow fast enough to dominate the US
electricity markets by say 2030, dealing with the additional demand from EVs should not be an
intractable problem.
Transport makes up another 25% or so. That is why I'm interested in battery electric
vehicles. Eventually the vast majority of vehicles will have to be battery powered or just
something other than petroleum based fuels. My hope is that the good people in the oil
patch can keep things going long enough for the transition to get started in earnest.
We need to try to see a bigger picture. EV does not exists in vacuum. They need
infrastructure such as lithium battery producing plants, charging stations, and more powerful
electrical grid (in case they reach substantial proportion of private cars)
We also need to understand that that the energy needed to create a car lithium battery is
close to energy required to driving a medium size diesel for over 8 years (which might last
20 years or more with proper maintenance -- even Prius can last over 10 years and 200K
miles). If this is not an exaggeration, than this is as close to a death sentence for EV
vehicles as one can get from "saving energy" standpoint.
Precise economic calculations does not favor EV. Looks what is happening with the demand
for Tesla cars. It's not pretty. Despite all hoopla, they were forced to lower prices to
sustain the demand.
The largest part of electricity produced in the USA now is produced using natural gas, so
in this sense pushing electrical cars in the USA without pushing nuclear power plants is a
very stupid idea. But it is a good idea for France.
But nuclear power plants have their set of dangers and problems, as we know from
Fukushima.
In does not make much sense to waste 30% or more of natural gas this way, in comparison
with using nat gas for transportation directly. So this is not a progress, this is a
regress.
So things are more complex then they looks but IMHO currently economics does not favor
electrical cars too much, in comparison with alternative. Although large scale experiments
like Tesla are necessary and make sense as they prepare us for a very uncertain futures and
we need to keep all options on the table.
But again the fact that nothing is done in the USA to stimulate usage of cars on natural
gas is a sign of stupidity and regress, not a sign of progress.
Please remember that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. That actually should
be tattooed on Elon Musk forehead ;-).
I used two pieces of recent info to estimate the percenatge range drop associated with EVs in
cold weather.
Recently the AAA issued a report in which they stated that at 20F, the average percentage
range drop of the four EVs they tested at 20F was 40%. A few weeks ago in our local paper, a
reporter tested a Chevy Bolt at 14F and reported that the range drop was 47%.
The range of a vehicle is determined in a test lab at 68F. So a temp drop of 48F reduces
the range by 40%, based on the AAA tests. Assuming the efficiency drop is linear, that
translates into 0.833% drop for each 1 degF drop.
So the percentage range loss for the Bolt, which is 54 degs below the test temp, should be
approximately 0.833*54=45%. Reasonably close to the 47% reported.
A 40% to 47% range loss is major and I am now beginning to think that the Canadian/US
govt/Automakers should be providing this info to customers on the fuel economy label. A good
bogie cold temp would be 32F. I can hear the howls from the EV crowd. "Automakers in
Canada/US discouraging consumers from buying EVs."
Maybe Consumers Report might start doing cold weather tests on EVs and plug in hybrids
after the recent cold snap in US and Canada this winter. As noted above, some plug-in hybrids
turn on the gasoline engine to provide cabin heat in winter. Not sure what they do at 95F.
Does the engine drive the AC compressor?
The drop in range depends on the length of the trip.
In cold temperatures such as 14F the battery energy is used to warm the battery over the
first few miles and range is not very good if calculated over a 5 mile trip. Over the course
of a longer trip such as 100 miles the range loss is not as great.
It also depends how high one heats their car. I dress warmly when it is 14F outside rather
than my typical clothing inside my house.
If I didn't dress properly, my range would be lower.
Average temperature where I live was about 19 F in January (average monthly temperature in
2019), the range was about 24% lower over about 1500 miles driven compared to October 2018
results (1600 miles driven in October 2018).
There is a loss of range, but it is not as large as 47% based on my experience in a Tesla
Model 3.
In October the average was 241 Wh/mi and in January it was 300 Wh/mi.
Just hours after the company's brand new general
counsel quit and CEO Elon Musk may have violated his consent order with the SEC by
Tweeting false 2019 guidance , Consumer Reports has now pulled its recommendation of the
Model 3 based on reliability issues. "Members say they've identified a number of problems with
their cars, including issues with its body hardware, as well as paint and trim," Consumer
Reports
said .
The report called reliability "a weak spot" for Tesla and noted that no other Tesla models
carry CR's recommendation, either. Tesla shares quickly dropped to session lows in response to
the report: Jake Fisher, senior director of auto testing at Consumer Reports said: "While
Teslas perform well in Consumer Reports' road tests and have excellent owner satisfaction,
their reliability has not been consistent, according to our members, which has resulted in
changes to their recommended status."
The survey found that the Model 3's sole touchscreen would often malfunction. "The touch
screen would intermittently begin acting as if someone was touching it rapidly at many
different points. This fault would cause music to play, volume to increase to maximum, and
would rescale and pan the map in the navigation system," one CR survey respondent said.
Other owners complained about paint trim defects and windows cracking. "Earlier this year,
our test vehicle developed a large crack in its massive rear window during a cold spell when it
was parked outside," Consumer Reports said.
And it's not just the Model 3 that was brought up in the report. "Tesla's other models have
suffered from below-average reliability as well," the report says.
It continues: "The
Model S sedan has had an inconsistent history , being above average, average, and below
average, with each downward move following in the wake of a hardware change made by Tesla."
The timing for Consumer Reports to pull its recommendation couldn't be worse, with
short-sellers recently
doubling down on the idea that Tesla is facing a significantly ugly growth trajectory and
demand for the Model 3 seemingly falling off a cliff and catalyzing price cuts, as we have
reported recently .
I'm a TSLA bear myself, but this is less than 3 weeks of production. It could be explained
by moving cars around the country. In their quarterly reports, we've seen about this many
unsold cars. Most car dealerships have several months worth of inventory.
If they get up to 20K or more unsold, it could indicate a problem.
If you want an amazing car...that fits anyone's needs and then some......this is it.
Reliable...Inexpensive....Depreciation is next to ZERO...especially if you buy one 1 year
old. A car is a tool. Buy the best tool that causes you NO GRIEF...keeps you safe...and is
fun to drive. You want a car with the "Lowest Cost of Ownership" yet able to recover much of
your investment when you want a newer one. Stay away from the ones that are the opposite of
what I just posted. Land Rover, Jaguar, Mercedes, BMW, Cadillac...etc. All turds.
For motor vehicle type uses the efficiency is just terrible compared to electric and I doubt much improvement is likely
there
I am not so sure. It looks like hybrid cars are very competitive with the EV. The efficiency of Tesla and similar EV is grossly
overrated. You have losses in the transmission line, losses in the charger, losses in the battery. Plus if the mechanical transmission
is used, you have losses in transmission during driving (substantial).
The ~56kwh Roadster battery takes ~70kwh to charge. (approx) So ~20% of the electricity you pay for is lost to heat. How much
is the charger and cabling, and how much the batteries, I have no idea.
Here is a very simple calculation. Tesla with the air conditioner on auto 73F and external temperature 60F (minimal use of
the air conditioner) consumes around 300 watts/mile. Double this for temperatures below freezing point or temperatures above 90F.
The cost per mile at 15 cents per Kwh and 20% loss is 5.4 cent.
Hybrid SUV like RAV4 hybrid (which is a much better and safer car, especially in winter) with an average of 35 miles per gallon
and the price of gas at $2.5 per gallon has cost 7.1 cents per mile.
That means that Tesla provides just 24% economy, which is completely eaten by the higher cost of Tesla (say, $44K vs. $29K
).
Assuming mileage 200K at the end of the life of each car, this $15K difference adds 7.5 cents per mile.
Which means that at those price levels Tesla is competitive only if electricity is free.
I'm not really sure of the significance of that. Using fossil fuel products as combustible fuel limits the efficiency at which
one can obtain useful work from the fuel. That efficiency number is really only useful when comparing one source to another and
the ffs pretty much will operate in the 40%=/- range for most stationary applications. For motor vehicle type uses the efficiency
is just terrible compared to electric and I doubt much improvement is likely there. That rejected energy is just a fixture of
the way energy is extracted through combustion so I doubt it has any meaning except for how much you are overheating a river near
a coal or NG power plant.
For motor vehicle type uses the efficiency is just terrible compared to electric and I doubt much improvement is likely
there
I am not so sure. It looks like hybrid cars are very competitive with the EV.
The efficiency of Tesla and similar EV is grossly overrated. You have losses in the transmission line, losses in the charger,
losses in the battery. Plus if the mechanical transmission is used (for example 10:1 fixed gearbox like in Tesla), you have losses
in transmission and motor during driving (say 10%). So total efficiency of electricity usage would be around 70%, which is high,
by not that high. Atkinson-cycle ICE engines used in hybrids have ~40% efficiency.
The ~56kwh Roadster battery takes ~70kwh to charge. (approx) So ~20% of the electricity you pay for is lost to heat. How much
is the charger and cabling, and how much the batteries, I have no idea.
Here is a very simple calculation. Tesla with the air conditioner on auto 73F and external temperature 60F (minimal use of
the air conditioner) consumes around 300 watts/mile. Double this for temperatures below freezing point or temperatures above 90F.
The cost per mile at 15 cents per Kwh and 20% loss is 5.4 cent.
Hybrid SUV like RAV4 hybrid (which is a much better and safer car, especially in winter) with an average of 35 miles per gallon
and the price of gas at $2.5 per gallon has cost 7.1 cents per mile.
That means that Tesla provides just 24% economy, which is completely eaten by the higher cost of Tesla (say $44K vs. $29K ).
Assuming mileage 200K at the end of the life of each car, this $15K difference adds 7.5 cents per mile.
Which means that at those price levels Tesla is competitive only if electricity is free.
Your calculations are probably correct, but there are other considerations. For instance, UK oil production peaked in 1999
at around 3 million barrels per day, it has now fallen to 1 million. At $50 oil, it costs us $25 million per day to import the
oil we consume over our production. Our wealth is draining away in a trade deficit that has increased with declining oil and gas
production.
The Tesla Model 3 is perfectly safe in winter, and is a far nicer car than a RAV4 hybrid. The appropriate comparison would
be to Volvo XC60: https://www.edmunds.com/volvo/xc60/2018/hybrid/
What about road clearances? What about the ability to lock differential when driving on steep ice-covered incline ?
There are also "known unknown" related to lithium battery use (Panasonic cells) at low and very low temperatures. As no Tesla
3 is 8 years old yet, it difficult to say whether the battery can last till the end of the warranty period in continental climate
weather conditions (very cold in winter, very hot in summer).
Looks like if you cool a lithium battery below zero F and try to drive before it warmed to 70F the longevity of battery decreases.
Higher temperatures also have negative effect (
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4526891/
)
As the operating temperature of LiB changes from 25 to 55 °C, the degradation rate of maximum charge storage after 260 cycles
is found to increase from 4.22% to 13.24%. At the component level, for the same change in the operating temperature, the degradation
rate of the Warburg element resistance after 260 cycles increases from 49.40% and 584.07% (Fig. 10) which is the highest change;
and that for the cell impedance ranks second, increasing from 33.64% to 93.29% (Fig. 8). As for the charge transfer rate, the
change in its degradation rate decreases from 68.64% to 56.19% (Fig. 7).
Simply turning on the electric vehicles AAA studied in 20 degree weather revealed a 12 percent loss in range. On a vehicle
like the Chevy Bolt, with an EPA rating of 238 miles per charge, that would drop range to 209 miles.
Brannon said using climate control revealed an even bigger surprise: Range dipped by an average 41 percent -- which would
bring an EV like the Bolt down to just 140 miles per charge.
For the Chevrolet Volt, engineers combat cold-weather energy draining by engaging ERDTT – Engine Running Due To Temperature.
This runs the Volt's supplementary gasoline engine to ensure enough power is available to run the defroster. But the all-electric
Tesla doesn't have this option.
At low temperatures lithium battery can't be charged so if in normal conditions Tesla recaptures energy for the battery during
regenerative braking (regen) this is not the case anymore. That further decreases range.
Even with other sources stating that cold weather lowers the Model S range by only a quarter, Rob said drivers should anticipate
on using an average of 40-percent more power. When the roads are icy or wet, increase this by another 25-percent.
"Expect to lose about 10 miles of real range for every 10 degree drop," said Rob. "Plan your charging and driving accordingly
– don't cut it close."
If you run out of energy at -5F, the car needs to be tolled.
If you try to keep battery warm your battery will be drained during parking, unless you are connected to the charger.
At low temperatures (especially with front wind) and during initial warm up of the cabin the heater consumes around 5KWH further
draining the battery.
At 90F loss of range is less then in winter -- about 20%, but at 100F it is similar and the effect of battery longevity are
also similar and negative.
So in areas with continental climate EVs make much less sense then say in California.
As I have suggested, works fine in winter. As long as one doesn't ride in the car naked during the winter, losses from using
the heater are not that great. So far the lowest temperatures the car has seen parked overnight outside have been about minus
15 F for a low with an average of about minus 10 F, battery lost about 250 Wh each hour on average. Battery capacity is about
78,000 Wh. Average temperature where I live is about 19 F in Jan. In Jan I drove about 1500 miles and averaged about 300 Wh per
mile vs 245 Wh/mile in October (1600 miles). That is my experience in average winter weather where temperature averaged 19 F in
Jan 2019. Range decreased by about 22%. My experience is that range also decreases in a hybrid during winter( I have been driving
Toyota hybrids since 2004).
Have driven plenty in snow and ice with the Model 3 this winter, take it to a ski area almost every weekend, the more snow
the better ;-)
Judging from people experiences there are some undeniable problem with driving Tesla 3 in winter.
The construction of door handles in Tesla3 is a problematic for winter. Frameless windows also represent a problem.
Some pretty educational videos:
1. People are running of energy with Tesla 3 parked at airport for a week or so at cold weather. You need to leave at least
15 km per day in battery in cold weather, or you are in trouble. 30 if weather is very cold. Looks like Tesla 3 tries to heat
battery all the time to avoid damage from low temperatures.
2. To drive Tesla 3 in cold weather you need to "preheat" the car until battery reaches "working temperature" range:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2gmphV8IZQ
3. ~52 miles commute to work in cold weather is all that can be made safely. In video below only 43 miles left at the end (the
car was not connected to the charger during the working day):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvybhb8P894
4. A very short round trip with a preheated car, which was parked outside) reveals problems some problems with handling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2Qjt0obVfI
Ample supply of heat from ICE engine helps steering. Tesla does not have it and it looks like it became very stiff.
It is actually amazing that lithium batteries (which are electrolyte based) work that well at such low temperatures. So in
way Tesla experiment opens new frontier for lithium batteries.
"... Much below that and the chemistry that's used to store energy runs into various problems. Among other things, battery components develop increased resistance that limits how much power they can hold, as well as how fast a battery pack can be charged or discharged, said Timothy Grewe, chief engineer for electric propulsion systems at General Motors. ..."
"... Grewe has experienced sharp reductions in the range of his own Chevy Bolt, but he also said there are ways to limit the impact of cold weather. That includes storing a battery car in a garage, preferably one that's heated. And wherever it is parked, it helps to keep the EV plugged in ..."
"... many battery vehicles are programmed to use some of the energy from the grid to keep the battery pack warm, improving its efficiency. ..."
"... Motorists are also advised to "precondition" their EVs, Grewe and Brannon said. That means heating up the cabin while still connected to the grid, rather than drawing energy from the battery pack. Most new battery-electric vehicles have custom smartphone apps that allow a driver to switch on cabin heat remotely when plugged in. Commuters can even preprogram the system to automatically start at a particular time of day. ..."
Hoping to increase the appeal of their battery-electric vehicles, automakers have begun
rolling out an assortment of "long-range" models, such as the Tesla Model 3, Chevrolet Bolt EV,
Jaguar I-Pace and Nissan Leaf Plus.
Under ideal conditions, these products can deliver more than 200 miles per charge and, in
some cases, even 300. But as many owners discovered last week as winter storms slammed much of
the country, cold weather does not qualify as "ideal." A new AAA study finds that when the
thermometer dropped to 20 degrees Fahrenheit, range fell by an average of 41 percent on the
five models it tested.
"We found that the impact of temperature on EVs is significantly more than we expected,"
said Greg Brannon, AAA's director of automotive engineering.
Some EV drivers -- including this correspondent -- recently found that range can drop by
half when the mercury tumbles into negative territory. The AAA study appears to be the first to
have used standard, repeatable methodology to confirm the problem and compare the effect of
winter temperatures on different models.
Several surprises emerged from the research, according to Brannon, starting with the fact
that the impact on range was pretty much uniform among the cars tested: the BMW i3s, the
Chevrolet Bolt EV, the Nissan Leaf, the Tesla Model S and the Volkswagen e-Golf.
"It's something all automakers are going to have to deal with as they push for further EV
deployment because it's something that could surprise consumers," said Brannon.
Different factors can affect the loss of range, he and other experts have noted. Simply
turning on the electric vehicles AAA studied in 20 degree weather revealed a 12 percent loss in
range. On a vehicle like the Chevy Bolt, with an EPA rating of 238 miles per charge, that would
drop range to 209 miles. But that part of the test assumed operating the vehicle with cabin
heat and seat heaters turned off.
Brannon said using climate control revealed an even bigger surprise: Range dipped by an
average 41 percent -- which would bring an EV like the Bolt down to just 140 miles per
charge.
The problem is that unlike a car with an internal combustion engine that can warm the cabin
with waste heat, EVs have to tape into their batteries to power the climate control system.
Part of the problem, he said, is that "lithium-ion batteries like the same sort of
temperatures that we do, around 70 degrees."
Much below that and the chemistry that's used to store energy runs into various
problems. Among other things, battery components develop increased resistance that limits how
much power they can hold, as well as how fast a battery pack can be charged or discharged, said
Timothy Grewe, chief engineer for electric propulsion systems at General Motors.
Grewe has experienced sharp reductions in the range of his own Chevy Bolt, but he also
said there are ways to limit the impact of cold weather. That includes storing a battery car in
a garage, preferably one that's heated. And wherever it is parked, it helps to keep the EV
plugged in . Onboard electronics will prevent overcharging. But many battery vehicles
are programmed to use some of the energy from the grid to keep the battery pack warm, improving
its efficiency.
Motorists are also advised to "precondition" their EVs, Grewe and Brannon said. That
means heating up the cabin while still connected to the grid, rather than drawing energy from
the battery pack. Most new battery-electric vehicles have custom smartphone apps that allow a
driver to switch on cabin heat remotely when plugged in. Commuters can even preprogram the
system to automatically start at a particular time of day.
While cold weather is especially hard on range, batteries also don't like hot weather, said
Brannon. "Much like when it's cold, in hot weather EVs suffer some decrease in range, but not
as much as in the cold."
The AAA study found range fell 4 percent from EPA numbers at 95 degrees. But, again, that
number was assuming the motorist didn't mind sweating. Turn the climate control system down to
70 degrees, AAA found and range fell by 17 percent.
Tesla emailed a statement that disputed AAA's findings, saying the report exaggerates the
impact that cold weather has on its electric vehicles' range. The company didn't provide data
saying how much range is lost in cold temperatures.
"Based on real-world data from our fleet, which includes millions of long trips taken by
real Model S customers, we know with certainty that, even when using heating and air
conditioning, the average Model S customer doesn't experience anywhere near that decrease in
range at 20 degrees Fahrenheit," the company said in a statement. "And the decrease in range at
95 degrees Fahrenheit is roughly 1 percent."
One thing that EVs and conventional vehicles have in common is that energy efficiency --
whether measured by range or miles per gallon -- can be affected by a variety of factors. These
can include your driving style, as well as the terrain.
Do a lot of hill climbing and you're going to use energy faster. EVs, however, are
especially sensitive to any accessory drawing power, whether the car's climate control or even
headlights, meaning that driving at night, whatever the weather, will hurt range.
"... And oh yes, there is this famous outcry 'costs will come down!' almost like it's some kind of birthright, and that repeating it ad-infinitum ad- nauseum – is supposed to make it true. No, costs do not have to come down. Power systems (battery, ICE, whatever) are not the same thing as the last 3 decades of improvement in electronics. Energy does not equal technology. Historically, costs for metals used in energy systems have outdistanced standard inflation by many hundreds of percent. The following elements have increased in price from 1980 to 2018; copper 200%, nickle 55.4%, iron ore 504.2%, lithium +800%, manganese 0% (unchanged), cobalt 534%. It doesn't look to me like 'costs are-a commin' down!!', in fact quite the opposite. ..."
Mining lithium consumes huge amounts of diesel and natural gas. As the cost of these fuels go
up, so must the produced metal. And not just in the mining operation, but in building roads
to the mines, and other processing infrastructure. I think it is very clear that these
operations cannot be powered by solar or wind.
Automobile lithium packs have to be exchanged every couple of years in a car, costing 10s
of thousands of dollars. Because of this, many electric car owners get rid of their ride when
the battery expires. A whole new business has arisen, that of selling used Teslas minus the
battery. It is already possible to buy a relatively recent model 3 'shell' (stripped of
battery, but has everything else and is fully functional) for as low as $6,000. Essentially
we are now seeing that service life of the vehicle shell is contingent on the economics of
the battery that powers it. Perhaps it makes sense to low-cash buyers to buy a used shell and
re-battery it, which is contingent on the original owner to take a substantial hit to the
pocket book.
And oh yes, there is this famous outcry 'costs will come down!' almost like it's some
kind of birthright, and that repeating it ad-infinitum ad- nauseum – is supposed to
make it true. No, costs do not have to come down. Power systems (battery, ICE, whatever) are
not the same thing as the last 3 decades of improvement in electronics. Energy does not equal
technology. Historically, costs for metals used in energy systems have outdistanced standard
inflation by many hundreds of percent. The following elements have increased in price from
1980 to 2018; copper 200%, nickle 55.4%, iron ore 504.2%, lithium +800%, manganese 0%
(unchanged), cobalt 534%. It doesn't look to me like 'costs are-a commin' down!!', in fact
quite the opposite.
Now as for lithium specifically – no, 'there aint' lots of it, as some here want so
desperately to believe. From Metalary – 'There's only a limited supply of this element,
because it only makes up 0.0007 percent of the Earth's crust. Chile produces most of the
element for the world market, with Australia coming in second. In the US you can only find a
single mine in the whole country. It doesn't occur naturally in elemental form, either.'
' What these things all mean is that the demand for lithium-ion batteries will rise even
further. The price of LITHIUM CARBONATE IS UP 47% FROM 2015 and the year 2017 will see
increased sales of pure electric cars. Add the fact that Li-ion batteries are also used for
mobile devices such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, and other wearable devices, and the
demand for the commodity will surely increase as well.' Clearly, from all of the above, there
is only one direction for lithium prices and it will rocket up accordingly.
EV, if it is here to stay, will remain as a status item of very limited quantity as
governed by sales prices equivalent to the upper echelon of the luxury car market. Battery
materials costs, which in lithium format are not and will not decrease going forward, will
permanently keep it there.
Okay, I am not taking sides in this cat fight. But I would like someone to give some stats on
the lifetime of lithium batteries along with the cost of replacing them. And a link
supporting your stats.
I googled it and got this.
The typical estimated life of a Lithium-Ion battery is about two to three years or. 300
to 500 charge cycles, whichever occurs first. One charge cycle is a period of use from
fully charged, to fully discharged, and fully recharged again.
But I could find nothing on the replacement cost of a Tesla battery.
The Model 3 Long Range warranty is for at least 70 percent range at 120K miles
Tesla sells a Model S (and X I assume) warranty for at least 70 percent capability for 8
years and unlimited miles.
Based on this, I find it very hard to believe your statement of "Automobile lithium packs
have to be exchanged every couple of years in a car, costing 10s of thousands of dollars.
"
Here's an example of Tesla owners debating battery replacement costs. Main takeaways: it
costs a lot, and you really aren't expected to have to do it. The battery should last the
life of the car. If it does not for some reason, your vehicle is essentially totaled.
I have a 2013 Leaf, battery still has about 90% of life, so even if it degrades another 10%
in the next six years, it'll still be usable, for twelve years of use, which I would guess is
about average life span for a car. My guess is the battery tech has improved in the interim.
Price to replace it is around $7K. Keep in mind I've never had to change the oil, flush the
radiator or any of that other maintenance crap that sucks up a lot of time also.
Seems unlikely that majority of the middle class can afford EV's. Most new vehicles are sold
using a lot of debt. as loan durations increase. I believe the current trend to sell
inventory is with 84 month loans and there is increasing interest in 96 month loans as
interest rates move higher. Also dealer inventories have been very high since 2017:
https://www.autonews.com/article/20181015/RETAIL01/181019834/inventory-matches-slowing-market
I just don't believe the average Joe can afford an EV. In additional the US grid would
need add a heck of lot of infrastructure and power plants to support an EV transportation
system. My guess it would probably cost at least $1T USA (which we don't have). Since most of
the new power comes from NatGas, switching to EVs is re-arranging Deck chairs on the Titanic:
switching from Oil to NatGas for transportation. To move to a renewable power source to
support EV transportation is probably around $10T for the US, which is economically
unobtainable considering the looming debt & demographic problems.
Realistically the bucket bottom of the US Economy is likely to fall out during the 2020's,
as Debt & Demographics overwhelm the economy. US Nat Debt is now over $22T and increasing
by more than $1T per year ($1.4T in 2018). There is at least $100T in underfunded
entitlements & pensions. Its not as if the USA is going to go Soylent green on its
retirees to solve its financial problems.
That said EVs are dumb idea considering the amount of resources needed. The obvious choice
would be to focus on mass transportation and rebuilding the oil rail network that was
destroyed by air travel. It would made a lot of sense to start rebuilding rail &
railstations decades ago rail improvements take long time it has to be integrated with
working rail-lines (ie you cannot shutdown a highway or rail line to make improvements: You
have to work around the traffic). If every major town and city was connected it could bring
in local freight & move passengers. People could use their ICE vehicles to commute the
short distance to the nearest rail station. it would also reduce the need for long haul
trucking and switch most of the trucking to just local delivery.
The only reason people want EV is so they don't have to change!
Well said Tech Guy, absolutely 100% endorse what you've written above.
You're 'spot-on' in your assessment of costly infrastructure issues, unsustainable
government debts, and demographic problems. These factors will constrain EV production to
those that can afford them, which isn't the impoverished middle class anymore. EV's will
therefore remain a purchase option only for an upper-middle to upper-high class range
demographic.
You guys focus too much on the US. What I want to know is how do you expect for EVs to get
charged in Spain, and what are we supposed to do stretch battery life when we have 35 deg C
in long summer days and -5 deg C winter nights. And where is the country supposed to get that
electricity when the idiots who run the government don't like nuclear, nor natural gas?
Stephen Hren Wrote:
"Ethanol production consumes 40% of our corn crop."
Yup. Ethanol is just a subsidy to corn growers & its an energy sink since it take more
energy to fertialize, plant, harvest, ferment & distill than you get out with combustion.
Not to mention the depletion of aquifiers and fertializer\herbicide\pesticide runoffs that
end up in rivers, lakes and oceans.
Stephen Hren:
"As the switch to EVs continues, this food will be available to people rather than ICEs"
Nope. Most people cannot afford them, and EVs and Ethanol use the same power source:
NatGas. EVs will never go mainstream and probably largely disappear in the 2020s. Probably
Hybrids will remain on the market (for those that can afford them). Considering the entire US
vehicle economy survives on subprime auto loans, its just a matter of time before it just
implodes. The only people that can afford EVs are those making more than $100K per year.
"The study shows that the average buyer of a regular Ford Focus was 46 years old and had a
household income of $77,000 per year, as compared to the an annual household income of
$199,000 for the average, 43-year-old owner of Ford Focus electric."
The number of used cars sold are expected to reach 39.5 million, while new car sales are
expected to decline to 17.1 million. You have declining new car sales, probably because of
affordability.
Nissan has fulfilled its promise to introduce a long-range version of the Leaf electric car : the 2019 Leaf Plus will
go on sale this spring with a larger battery pack and a more powerful electric motor. But the
Nissan's new 62.0-kWh battery pack, although significantly bigger than the base Leaf's 40.0-kWh
pack, makes for an EPA range estimate of 226 miles -- below the Chevrolet Bolt EV's 238 miles,
the Kia Niro EV's 239 miles, and the Hyundai Kona Electric's 258 miles.
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Other than that crucial range figure, the Leaf Plus's other numbers are competitive with
those rivals. Its electric motor is more powerful than the base Leaf's 147-hp unit, producing
215 horsepower and 251 lb-ft of torque. This extra grunt should make it usefully quicker than
the base car, which already went from zero to 60 mph in a decent 7.4
seconds in our testing .
The concept of car ownership could change, too. Today, privately owned cars spend most of
their lives parked and unused. Self-driving cars of the future are expected to be on the
roads for a much bigger portion of the day -- once they drive you to work, they can drive
someone else to the grocery store. That means roads could be filled with fewer vehicles
overall.
Self-driving cars will hasten the switch from gasoline-powered automobiles to electric
vehicles. The sensors and computers calling the shots will need electrical power, rather than
horsepower that gasoline engines provide.
You probably never studied computer science in depth. One probably needs a degree in
electrical engineering to understand huge problems on this technological path. But some
problems are visible even for mere mortals: The problem with self-driving cars is that
computers are very stupid (let's put it politely handicapped) drivers that can't sense a lot
of things that human sense. They are good only for "normal" situations and limited traffic
scenarios, for example following the car in front of you at (10+your speed) or greater
distance at speeds higher than 25 miles per hour. In congested bumper-to-bumper traffic with
crazy from spending 4 hours on the road human drivers cutting you left and right, they are
useless unless they can communicate with the car in front of you and the car behind you
getting their "intentions" beforehand. This is probably possible using Bluetooth or WiFi, but
is far ahead of us and requires developing protocols and standardizing actions taken by
self-driving cars across various manufacturers. The maximum you can envision now is
autonomous delivery of an empty car (no passengers) as a very low speed (like Google maps
cars) to the driver.
Self-driving cars will hasten the switch from gasoline-powered automobiles to electric
vehicles. The sensors and computers calling the shots will need electrical power, rather
than horsepower that gasoline engines provide.
I like your enthusiasm, but from an engineering point of view, this solution is less
attractive than driving cars on natural gas, and biodiesel. Right now early Tesla enthusiasts
are still not chased out of their expensive neighborhood, but soon they might suffer stigma
and find dead cats in their backyard, especially if other people air conditioning goes out in
summer, or electrical heating at winter due to their hobby ;-). Early Tesla buyers are either
"conspicuous consumption" junkies or the followers some secular cult of the "Second coming of
the electric cars." Rational person right now probably would buy a hybrid. In California as
far as I can tell this is mostly prestige issues that drive people to buy Tesla, especially
among IT specialists. Most of those people (for various reasons including inferiority
complex) are luxury car buyers anyway.
In 2016, there were about 222 million licensed drivers in the United States. Each driver
on average drives 13,474 miles each year. Now assuming 0.300 kilowatts per mile please (which
means no heating and air conditioning in those cars) and even distribution of those miles
during the year (so each driver drives 13,474/365 miles a day) calculate how much energy
needs to be produced for, say 80% of that car to be electric. Add 20% losses in transmission
and charging. Now divide by 12 hours as the most car will be charged at night, right?
Two problems:
1. How to generate so much energy for the cars needed each night? Are you advocating mass
buildup of nuclear power stations? Because neither solar nor wind can work without
compensating nuclear (gas powered -- you need rapid switch on/off) for night time in case of
the electric car is owned by the majority of the population. East-West high voltage lines can
help, but in a very limited way (only three hours difference). Who will pay for this giant
infrastructure project?
2. Liability questions arising are very complex. The question to you: when self-driving
car electronics detects a child is running directly in front of the car and determines that
it can't stop in time and will hit the child unless it crashes the car into the pole and
possibly kills one of the passengers in the front seats, whom it should save: passengers of
the car or the child?
I would imagine the elderly will be scrambling all over themselves to purchase the medical equivalent of Siri or Sarah(?)
for Android that will listen to them with precise voice-to-text, listen to their breath and pulse, use low-cost Test-on-a-Chip
with personalized AI to a global medical FAQ and Amazon Pharmacy and transdermal implant to keep them precisely medicated without
the intervention of a 3x more expensive and #3 cause of malpractice death medical/hospice for-profit wealth-extraction USAryan
Vampirocracy.
"... "the deception is about to catch up to TSLA. Elon's Musk erratic behavior suggests that he sees it the same way." ..."
"... Lehman threatened short sellers, refused to raise capital (it even bought back stock), and management publicly suggested it would go private. Months later, shareholders, creditors, employees and the global economy paid a big price when management's reckless behavior led to bankruptcy." ..."
"... "There are many parallels to TSLA. In 2013, TSLA was on the brink of failure. TSLA's cash reserves fell to a dangerously low level and CEO Elon Musk secretly and desperately tried to sell the company," ..."
"... "Rather than communicating the truth to shareholders, Mr. Musk bluffed his way through the crisis." ..."
"... "large revenue and earnings disappointment" ..."
The 'deception' around electric car maker Tesla will catch up to the company soon, according
to hedge fund manager David Einhorn. He compared Elon Musk's behavior to Lehman Brothers
executives shortly before the bank's demise. In a letter to investors, Einhorn wrote that like
the investment bank that famously collapsed a decade ago "the deception is about to catch
up to TSLA. Elon's Musk erratic behavior suggests that he sees it the same way."
According to Einhorn, " Lehman threatened short sellers, refused to raise capital (it
even bought back stock), and management publicly suggested it would go private. Months later,
shareholders, creditors, employees and the global economy paid a big price when management's
reckless behavior led to bankruptcy."
Lehman Brothers was one of the largest investment banks in the US, whose collapse triggered
a global financial crisis of 2008. Einhorn is known for his short-selling of Tesla stock. In
other words, he makes bets that Tesla shares would fall in price.
Bets against Tesla have been good for Einhorn's Greenlight Capital as the carmaker's stock
plunged nearly 25 percent during the third quarter. Einhorn's fund has been burning through
money, too – a 25 percent loss for the year despite the record gains in S&P 500.
According to Einhorn, Tesla has been acting in many ways like Lehman Brothers, which
attacked Einhorn when he said that the bank was a risk to the financial system. A few months
later Lehman collapsed.
"There are many parallels to TSLA. In 2013, TSLA was on the brink of failure. TSLA's
cash reserves fell to a dangerously low level and CEO Elon Musk secretly and desperately tried
to sell the company," he said. "Rather than communicating the truth to shareholders,
Mr. Musk bluffed his way through the crisis."
The hedge fund manager predicts that Tesla would post a "large revenue and earnings
disappointment" in its fourth quarter. Tesla has burnt through $3.5 billion since the
beginning of the year, but Elon Musk hinted that Tesla may soon be profitable in recent emails
to employees that were leaked to the media.
Congrats. Sounds like a good swing trade in light of the fact that the trend
is your friend.
I am getting in on the great bear raid against Tesla, which I've been agnostic
on (mostly ignoring it) other than being skeptical. Did a lot of research over
the weekend, and the findings were quite disturbing. Musk will be lucky to avoid
a prison sentence.
Tesla is going to zero, barring something like Musk getting a large commitment
from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
There are no shares available to short, but puts suit me just fine. JP Morgan
Chase will be coming out with Tesla credit default swaps as well. That said
actually selling the swaps could be a problem.
On a different note, Tesla is going to zero. The company has a number of
severe problems:
• Tesla is burning through one billion per quarter and is likely to run out
of cash this year
• It is the only company of its size (in the market) offering high yield debt
and stock offerings to accredited investors (which do not require SEC disclosure)
• Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly refused to meet with Elon Musk
when he was in Saudi Arabia
• Elon Musk has violated federal securities, labor, and OSHA laws
• Musk and many other current and former executives have signed false documents
and thus committed perjury
• The Model 3 is a disaster and was panned by Consumer Reports, Car and Driver,
and Edmund's
• The self-dealing merger with Solar City would likely not have been approved
by shareholders without Musk's vaporware demonstration of solar roof tiles that
do not exist (securities fraud)
• Half of Tesla's output is exported, leaving it very vulnerable to trade retaliation
• Quality problems continue to be severe, and Tesla has now resorted to partnering
with local body shops for post-production fixes
• Extreme shortage of spare parts means Teslas can be out of service for months
• Tesla takes months to refund customer deposits
• Numerous accounting problems, leading to 86 questions from the SEC for the
last fiscal year, compared to zero for Ford Motor
• Tesla "autopilot" units keep crashing
• Highest accident and fatality statistics in its vehicle class (new luxury
vehicles)
• Model S wheels and suspensions keep cracking
• Difficulty of exiting vehicle in the absence of electrical power (no mechanical
door handles) led to children literally being burned alive
• A flood of competition is inbound, including the 600 horsepower Porsche Misson-E
going into production at Zuffenhausen next year
• Tesla's zero emission credits are set to expire, just as other automakers
start harvesting them
Every freely available share is now short–not joking. You can't even short
the stock anymore generally, though puts are of course available.
Musk himself is likely to be personally wiped out as well, as he has borrowed
against 40% of his shares. He'll face a very ugly margin call when the stock
starts sliding. Additionally, he's likely to personally face both civil and
criminal liability.
I bought some Tesla shares as the company as dipping a few weeks ago.
Hedge your long position with some puts. Only reason I am not short is that
there are no shares available to short. I did buy puts however.
Congrats for putting your money where your mouth is. By next year this time
you may be featured on @Bagholderquotes :).
The criticism of lack of profitability is sound & fair, but I also think
most of the overheated commentary has been irrational and overtly emotional.
This has been true. Most Tesla criticism up until now has come from two camps:
1. Gearheads with gasoline flowing in their veins who hate EVs. I belong
to this group (my daily driver has a 450 horsepower V-8 and I hate fuel economy
and EVs), though I avoided getting irrational about Tesla.
2. The Zero Hedge doomerist crowd.
There have, however, been two major exceptions. Jim Chanos and Bob Lutz.
Jim Chanos is a legendary short seller who nailed Enron and Valeant (though
he lost some credibility by betting on a China crash that never happened). Chanos
states that the only times he's seen so many executive departures before are
Enron and Valeant.
Bob Lutz likely needs no introduction to you. And while Lutz is a car guy
(invented the Dodge Viper), he says the greatest achievement of his career was
the Chevy Volt and that EVs are inevitable. Furthermore he highly praised the
Model S. Lutz has bluntly called Tesla a personality cult that's going bankrupt.
I expect Tesla to gradually improve net profitability as time goes on.
Musk has prioritised volume expansion over profits and I think it is fair
to say that he underestimated how tough it would be.
Tesla can't improve its net profitability because it has no profitability
to begin with, even if we accept Tesla's fictitious gross margins and channel
stuffing (e.g. "selling" batteries to The Boring Company).
Musk has indeed prioritized volume production, and his failure is due to
his arrogance. This arrogance is typical of Silicon Valley as a class. They
assume they know better than any other industry, failing to realize their success
is due to monopoly and lack of regulation (welcome to the auto industry boys!).
Musk deliberately recruited executives with no experience in the automotive
industry, and he attempted to fully automate production (e.g. his infamous alien
dreadnought remark). If Musk weren't so arrogant, he would've learn that Roger
Smith attempted this in the '80s and went so far as to buy FANUC. It was a complete
disaster. Sandy Munro describes robots as blind one-armed idiots, and notes
that not only can they not do everything but one must design the product itself
for robotic production.
This arrogance is directly culpable for Tesla's huge capital costs, as essentially
Tesla bought far more capital equipment than it can actually use or is required
in automaking. Musk said he was going to build half a million cars this year.
He'll be lucky to hit 200,000.
Even aside from Tesla's financial woes, regulatory violations, massive civil
liability, and outright criminality a massive flood of competition is inbound.
Volkswagen is currently converting twenty assembly plants to EV production,
Daimler is investing twenty billion euros in it by 2022, and GM is putting over
20 all electric vehicles into production over the next five years.
Then there's the fact that the Model 3 turns out to be something of a dog.
Consumer Reports, which called the Model S the best car it has ever evaluated,
noted that the Model 3 has a greater average stopping distance than the Ford
F-150.
What's the story for Tesla surviving? A company that appears to be under
SEC investigation somehow raises $20 billion in the next few years, achieves
mass production, eliminates its severe quality problems, doesn't get sued by
all the people it killed, and beats the competition handily?
Then there's the fact that Musk appears to be personally melting down. Feuding
with Warren Buffet, attacking the press Trump-style, and dating someone named
"Grimes" who is an "anti-imperialist" singer (?!).
I highly encourage you to check out Fintwitter on this (the only Twitter
that can compete with Frogtwitter). No one does scuttlebutt like bears.
I don't see the supercharger network as a major competitive edge at all.
People interested in long-distance driving don't buy EVs. I can "recharge" any
of my vehicles in one minute.
And the rest of the industry is not standing still on this. The German automakers
and Ford Europe are partnering with Shell to create their own network in Europe.
Many other efforts underway in America and Asia as well. These efforts involve
automakers, oil companies, power utilities, and in some cases governments. An
ocean of capital is available for this.
EVs will not completely take over unless the government forces it, but I
agree they will comprise a large percentage of new auto sales in the next decade.
Maybe even a majority.
The thing is that these EVs will not come from Tesla, unless Tesla survives
as a brand of a global OEM (I see GM and Ford as likely candidates for acquiring
Tesla).
Remember the auto industry is the most brutally competitive industry on the
planet.
A media ratings website is something Trump should've done.
In Musk's case it is ridiculous because the media has been polishing his
knob non-stop until his disastrous performance on the last earnings call.
He's also angry that the press is reporting on the alarming work conditions
at Tesla's Fremont assembly plant, including some poor schmuck who suffered
an arc flash explosion that melted all his skin because Tesla refused to de-energize
the high voltage equipment he was working on (a violation of NFPA 70, OSHA,
and CalOSHA).
Financial journalism is mostly solid as Peter Brimelow will be happy to tell
you.
You'll be happy to know that Teslemmings are accusing the Wall Street Journal
reporter Charley Grant of being a RUSSIAN TROLL .
My knowledge only dates to last weekend really. Got tired of hearing about
Musk and decided to do some scuttlebutt.
Space X is a private company, so I'm unaware of its financials or ownership
structure. I suspect it is not profitable as it raised capital as recently as
last year, but in principal there is nothing wrong with its business model.
Its technical and commercial achievements are impressive. Unlike the situation
with Tesla, Musk actually recruited experienced aerospace executives and engineers
for Space X instead of Snapchat retreads (not joking–some dipshit from Snapchat
is now running the Autopilot program).
The collapse of Tesla will do two things to Space X:
1 – Musk has borrowed against 40% of his Tesla shares, likely to finance
his other businesses and fund his lavish lifestyle (Bel Air and London mansions,
Gulfstream G650, etc.). This means he'll face a crushing margin call, possibly
forcing him to sell his shares in Space X.
2 – It will destroy his halo, which is source of his success. This is why
Musk committed securities fraud in order to have Tesla acquire Solar City, which
was rapidly headed for bankruptcy. With his reputation in tatters, it will call
into question his leadership of Space X. Certainly ideas like going to Mars
with other people's money will be out.
There is also a real possibility that Musk will face felony prosecution,
in which case he certainly won't be running Space X.
A lot of the Tesla bears assume there's something wrong with Space X as well,
but I don't think this is warranted. One guy who is documenting all the Model
S suspension failures has invented a half-cocked conspiracy theory that Space
X's achievements are fictitious. It's pretty common for short sellers to get
emotional during a great bear raid, which is part of the fun.
Some resources for you all on Tesla's impending collapse, starting with FinTwitter:
FinTwitter Resources
Mark Spiegel, Managing Partner of Stanphyl capital and Tesla bear
The normal thing is you settle your issues (legal, financial, etc.),
find out who really cares about you (in Musk's case, this might be down
to just his brother and Thiel), and start over.
Musk is a very talented man, and at the end of the day he will be all
right. He isn't Elizabeth Holmes, he's Icarus with a fatal attraction to
capital intensive industries. Musk appears to be guilty of violating a number
of federal laws, but he's not Jeff Skilling.
Preston Tucker for instance, the Musk of the 1940s, went right back to
work. As Tucker walked out of the court room he was unphased, quipping that
even Henry Ford failed the first two times around.
He ultimately found new investors in Brazil to back a new sports car.
Unfortunately Tucker died a premature death.
While "autopilot" does not amount to "self-driving" cars, self driving
cars have absolutely no business being touted except on roads made specifically
or certified for self driving cars. Frankly, I'm hugely skeptical of self
driving cars until the cars communicate with side road sensors and maybe
with the other cars
Tesla could now own 100% of an electric car factory in China, says
government
Good place for someone who thinks his employees ought to work 100 hours
a week.
Kyle Bass won big betting against on the lowest growth area in the world:
the EU. He lost a bit of money and a lot of credibility trying to short
Japan (long known as the sucker bet.) Betting on a China crash is inherently
flawed, because China has been transformed by the friendly attitude and
assistance of successive American governments, which facilitated the economic
growth of China following China-USSR military clashes in the late sixties.
Developing China has been seen as a way of weakening Russia. But the years
of allowing China to drive a coach and horses through international trade
has created a klepto-merchantilist decepticon monster piling up huge trade
imbalances. And instead of the Chinese government buying advanced US products
2025 program aims to make them technological leaders as well
China is going to transform itself into an unbeatable megastate, and
will not run out of steam. To prevent itself being supplanted as the most
powerful state in the word America will take action against the interests
of the greedy globalising hyper-capitalist elite and diplomatic shills running
their country into the ground. The first signs are already there that American
self preservation is emerging from the deep state. The US will see that
the trade and technology restriction it will try first will not be enough.
As things get nasty, China will resort to overt military pressure on the
rest of the world, or maybe it will give up its objective of global domination
and rely on everyone being nice to it!
A lot of Tesla skepticism is the mirror image of Tesla and Musk fanboyism.
That is it's based largely on irrational "player hating". A lot of the skepticism
and hate against Musk is from conservatives or right-wingers who associate
him with the left because of his popularity among many liberals. Also a
lot of financial types hate him because they're paper pushers and he's an
industrialist. Hedge funders and other financial types regard themselves
as being at the top of the social hierarchy, so an engineer and industrialist
building stuff makes paper pushers like themselves look bad.
-The production ramp up, while bumpy, is brisk
-While losses keep increasing, Tesla's opex as percentage of sales continues
to drop
-Thus far it has the only widespread high energy charging network
-While other automakers excel at mass production, they'll face bottlenecks
in ramping up EV production as well (notice GM's pace with the Volt and
Bolt) until well into the next decade
Hedge funders and other financial types regard themselves as being
at the top of the social hierarchy, so an engineer and industrialist
building stuff makes paper pushers like themselves look bad.
Plenty of asset managers are long Tesla and are practically fanboys of
Musk. Musk himself engages in quite a bit of "paper pushing" since he's
had to raise capital so many times.
"Paper pusher" is an irrational criticism of the finance sector. Allocating
capital is a very important job.
Whether it's an irrational criticism or not depends on one's values and
views on political economy. To some, the financial sector has manifestly
failed at allocating capital properly and is filled with rent seeking. Others
will point to its size and the capitalization of financial markets as evidence
of its value and importance.
What's the evidence that it has failed at allocating capital successfully?
No shortage of rent-seeking of course. But if there's one thing I've
learned it's that bagholders are gonna bag. This isn't some hypothetical either, look at countries without sophisticated
financial markets. People are forced to save by speculating in real estate,
and credit is often not available to business unless the state makes it
available (perfectly reasonable in such economies to be fair).
Since the 80s, the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio has been
much higher than the historical norm, higher than when the US had higher
rates of growth. There have been several bubbles, and consumer debt has
risen significantly while income has stagnated and startup formation is
at a 40 year low. Capital allocation has been very unproductive. It's caused
lots of asset price inflation and increased debt without producing new assets
and income streams. Capital allocation is highly centralized and it has
the same problems communist economies have with central planning where capital
is centralized in the state. A lot of unproductive activity and rent seeking.
In financialized economies with inflated asset prices, people have low
savings and can't even afford to buy real estate or can only afford it by
taking on lots of debt and having to depend on further price inflation so
that they don't go underwater. In countries with financial repression, public
debt tends to be low and interest rates tend to be low and capital gets
directed towards industry.
Since the 80s, the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio has been
much higher than the historical norm, higher than when the US had higher
rates of growth.
Stock prices were unusually low in the 1970s, as epitomized by BusinessWeek's
famous 1979 The Death of Equities cover.
In addition to reversion to the mean, several other factors made stocks
more valuable since that time.
The collapse of inflation and interest rates increased the net present
value of stocks, the rise of emerging markets with poor domestic capital
markets increased foreign demand for stocks, America's persistent trade
deficit further increased foreign demand for American assets, and the low-cost
trading and 401k revolutions.
There have been several bubbles
So what? Since the pop of the last bubble the S&P 500 with dividends
reinvested has returned over 400%.
and consumer debt has risen significantly
And? One man's debt is another man's asset.
income has stagnated
Correction, wages have stagnated. Capital income has soared. Entirely
expected consequence of union busting, mass immigration, and offshoring.
startup formation is at a 40 year low
And this is the fault of Wall Street how? If you haven't noticed VC is
throwing money at startups.
Capital allocation has been very unproductive.
Evidence? Certainly return on capital and return on equity haven't been
poor.
It's caused lots of asset price inflation and increased debt without
producing new assets and income streams.
Increased debt by definition creates new assets. Remember than one man's
debt is another man's asset.
Capital allocation is highly centralized and it has the same problems
communist economies have with central planning where capital is centralized
in the state.
Dude, have you even been to Costco? No lines for toilet paper there.
A lot of unproductive activity and rent seeking.
Meaning what exactly?
In financialized economies
The fuck does this mean?
inflated asset prices
At what level are asset prices inflated?
people have low savings
Personal choice. In some respects a consequence of sophisticated financial
markets–people rely on credit instead of savings. Hence why people buy houses
and cars with loans.
can't even afford to buy real estate or can only afford it by taking
on lots of debt and having to depend on further price inflation so that
they don't go underwater
Yes, this is called a mortgage. A financially rational decision given
the opportunity cost of committing so much capital upfront. Unsurprisingly,
this decision does involve a bit of risk. Big whoop. You think returns should
be guaranteed?
In countries with financial repression
The fuck does this mean?
public debt tends to be low
So what? The federal government is a higher quality borrower than any
household, so perhaps we should thank the government for bearing the burden
of credit expansion.
interest rates tend to be low
You mean like 3% on the ten year?
capital gets directed towards industry
You mean like Tesla? Wonder where they got their capital
Well like I said earlier, this is a matter of one's values and views
on political economy. If one prefers asset price inflation and a capital
structure of heavily indebted households and young adults, then there's
nothing wrong and everything is rosy.
Household income overall, not just wages, has stagnated.
Startup formation is still at a 40 year low, despite all the noise about
venture capital and Silicon Valley.
ROC and ROE are based on corporate income, which are at historical highs.
The rest of your comment is just econ 101 and biz school corp finance
and accounting 101 hand waving to justify the status quo.
Your whole argument in the original post is that Tesla and SpaceX could
not get the capital that they have without Musk committing fraud and violating
a bunch of laws. In other words, two new industrial firms with tremendous
brand value and advancing decades ahead of the competition (
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/05/every-3-5-years-spacex-is-adding-a-decade-lead-on-competitors.html
) could not have been capitalized otherwise.
Tesla's a company that should never have been. The whole concept is bullshit.
The electric car can not compete with the internal combustion engine the
energy density is not there.
I do not believe that Tesla is likely to produce profits in the foreseeable
future that justify its current valuation. However, a German engineering
service company has analysed a Tesla 3 model and found that the materials
cost of a car is around US-$ 18.000 and the cost of production can be estimated
at around US-$ 10.000, so the gross margin should be ok if they manage to
get production volume up.
Agreed that Tesla is probably going down the tubes, but what about the
effect on other technology stocks?
No-one really knows when Tesla will go down, but when it does, it's going
to impact the whole of Tech sector investment. For example, it's true that
a company like Amazon makes a profit, but it's also got a lot of fantasy
built into its share price (as pointed out in detail by David Stockman):
I wouldn't even grant such naif glibness Econ 101; it's more closely
resembles some nursery school "wisdom" and amounts to something like saying
that one man's fire is another's construction project.
I'll be the first to admit that under certain circumstances, debt
can be good, but the key word is "can" as I'm sure you'll agree.
Debt, like fire, capitalism, and communism (note the lower case "c").
is nothing more than a tool and whether any of those things is good or not
depends on a lot of other factors as you so correctly point out. Anyone
who makes such a cringe-worthy comment as "debt is good" or its equivalent
is not to be taken seriously and I quit reading his comment after that.
Why should anyone waste his time reading some author who has so little
to offer? People take 'Ol Thor seriously???
This goes to show how idiotic "investors" really are. Tesla was a No
Go from the very start. It was a failed business plan before it ever got
up & running. The technology will never be affordable to the vast majority
of the unwashed despite creative credit schemes. That means only the so-called
1%ers would be the target market and before too long that market would be
saturated and conquered and growth in profit and earnings would cease. The
reasonings given for tanking this stock by "investors" doesn't even mention
this. They're fucking clueless.
You want a growth industry for our time? A good long-term investment,
or long-term these days, with a business plan that will provide growth for
at least several decades? Invest in my company, Euthanasia, Inc.
. That's where the money is. You'll make gobs of money, significant double
digit ROI, and in 20 to 30 years when you're as wealthy as Trump if not
wealthier, there will be nothing, and no one, left to buy with all that
money. They'll, and it, will be gone. No one left to wipe your ass so you'll
have to use the money that was them and it to wipe it instead until you
defecate for the very last time.
I'm not even entirely sure whether anyone went to the moon these
days.
I'm entirely sure we didn't.
According to
Wiki
, the rate of payload to initial mass of the Apollo missions was roughly
1 to 25 from Earth to lower Earth orbit, but about 1 to 3 from Earth orbit
to lunar orbit. Assuming Earth orbit was 200 miles above Earth, less than
10% of the total energy required to escape Earth's gravity had been applied
once orbit was reached. Therefore, somehow the engines became about 100
times more fuel-efficient when going from Earth orbit to the moon.
There are many more astonishing details. One is that NASA
lost all the tapes of the lunar missions – allegedly the tapes were
"reused". Another is that the dosage of radiation measured on board the
lunar missions was
no different
from those of typical Earth orbit missions. Considering that the lunar
missions would have had to go through the van Allen radiation belt, they
should have received a significantly higher dosage.
You're trolling but fundamentally the notion of the "dark factory" or
the completely automated factory was hardly beyond belief, or else it wouldn't
have been attempted so many times in the first place. Its a lesson that
we learn, often at considerable cost, that the wetware of the brain is still
remarkably efficient and capable of things that our machines aren't, but
the central conceit of it: that we can make things from processes done by
repetitive functions is hardly impossible.
Its essentially the very background of programming: single use methods
and black box classes to manipulate data, then provide useful and interesting
results. It just so happens that in manufacturing in the real world that
there's much more variation and less control over both inputs and outputs,
but I am sure that every single person with a Six Sigma or ITIL cert has
at least given a passing thought to it. The entire point of such confined
processes is to turn humans into rough approximations of machines; why not
use machines for that purposes?
I'm always amazed at how there are so many fatalities and injuries
due to operator error on passenger trains – there really should be none.
Because it's all still in the hands of a driver, who has a fairly monotonous
job and tends to drift off from time to time. Automation is easily possible
on a technical level, but the driver is needed as an ultimate legal scapegoat
so that when SHTF, the company as a whole is not held liable. There's also
the interesting observation that due to computers having potential blind
spots, a human being is always needed and, paradoxically, the only way to
keep the human being engaged is to have them handle many of the easy tasks
that the AI could actually do better.
The problem is that Musk ran this company like a tech product where scaling
does not require massive capital and correcting mistakes means patching
lines of code, not massive recalls or people burning alive.
If Musk was smart, he would have combined his experience in tech and
entrepreneurship with the experience of a legit manufacturer.
If Musk kept production small and put out quality products, he could
have sold the company to Ford or Toyota and scaled production massively
with experienced people.
Musk would have made billions, and Tesla would likely be a leader in
EVs going forward for decades. Instead Musk got greedy and said we don't
need to sell out. With our market cap we are already the same size as Ford.
Well, enjoy prison Elon.
Well like I said earlier, this is a matter of one's values and views
on political economy. If one prefers asset price inflation and a capital
structure of heavily indebted households and young adults, then there's
nothing wrong and everything is rosy.
What precisely do you mean by values in this context? What are your values?
And, to repeat Thorfinsson's earlier question-dismissal of your faith, what
the hell is "asset price inflation"? Asset prices go up in accordance with
expected future returns and the current interest rate curve. Sometimes price
bubbles form; there is no reason to believe that we are currently in the
midst of one in the stock market. That current rates are low, implies a
high present value for future flows, and a testament to the desirability
of U.S T-bonds and corporate credit in general.
Household income overall, not just wages, has stagnated.
Startup formation is still at a 40 year low, despite all the noise
about venture capital and Silicon Valley.
Startup formation everywhere demonstrates high time- clustering. Why
is that a fault of the financial sector?
ROC and ROE are based on corporate income, which are at historical
highs.
Yes, this is true. Labour share has gone down in relative terms. Perhaps
many categories of labour will continue to devalue, replaced by automation.
We may at some point need to do a cost-benefit analysis of guaranteed minimum
income. I remain somewhat circumspect of the notion.
The rest of your comment is just econ 101 and biz school corp finance
and accounting 101 hand waving to justify the status quo.
Which portions?
Perhaps, it is precisely a lack of understanding econ 101. which leads
to an inevitable reliance on the cult of Liquidationist Ron Paulisms.
Your whole argument in the original post is that Tesla and SpaceX
could not get the capital that they have without Musk committing fraud
and violating a bunch of laws. In other words, two new industrial firms
with tremendous brand value and advancing decades ahead of the competition
(
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/05/every-3-5-years-spacex-is-adding-a-decade-lead-on-competitors.html
) could not have been capitalized otherwise.
That was hardly the entirety of the argument. I've just started looking
at Tesla in depth, in order to handicap a long-term short position and I
conclude that it is a great short. Objectively, his capex and opex are completely
highly, highly, unwarranted, even for a new technology venture. He broke
and bent a few laws to burn investor capital. As a result, top talent is
exiting the company. Musk however, does not see it for he is in the grips
of a bad case of G'd complex.
Musk is not Bezos. He does not have the vision he thinks he's got. Market
will not tolerate this sort of extraordinary corporate profligacy for more
than another year in my reckoning. I think his best bet might be to seek
a collaboration with Daimler and focus on the battery business.
I wouldn't even grant such naif glibness Econ 101; it's more closely
resembles some nursery school "wisdom" and amounts to something like
saying that one man's fire is another's construction project.
Try not to be too glib yourself. Hit the econ 101 books, would be my
advice to you. There is a world of difference between personal debt, single
company corporate debt, and, economy-wide sovereign debt. The trouble with
your faith is that you deliberately ignore two basic econ 101 concepts:
individual optimal debt ratios, and, thereafter, the fallacy of composition
as it applies to public or sovereign debt.
The question of debt and Savings more generally, has deeply psychological
underpinnings connected to language. [For another time]
Anyone who makes such a cringe-worthy comment as "debt is good" or
its equivalent is not to be taken seriously and I quit reading his
comment a fter that.
That would explain a great deal of your typically frantic behaviour.
You have the laughable habit of erecting strawmen. "Debt is good" is not
a statement anyone on the rational side of economics has ever claimed in
isolation. Properly understood, debt is an instrument to smooth inter-temporal
investments and consumption.
Worth watching for anyone looking to get a sense of Tesla as a car. The
short version: Battery up -- crap; Battery down -- remarkable.
The stuff Tesla can't get right is old tech; the stuff that is good is
electric & electronic. I prefer the short narrative but the timing is too
hard. Tesla has proved itself brilliant at raising money. It's market cap
is $46B.
People love Tesla. I can't be sure about the timing. Otherwise I would
be short.
One way to construct a short is through the purchase of a longer dated
put, as you might already know. If that is more premium than you are looking
to spend, then one can look at put spreads.
The history of auto making is littered with dead entrepreneurs. I have
to hand it to Musk, he has balls. He capitalized on or, is responsible for
the reinvigorated interest in EVs and, he took advantage of all the government
incentives that followed. I don't know much about Tesla's manufacturing
abilities. I doubt Ford or GM will be interested in buying anything more
than the Tesla brand name, which is a clever one.
I wonder? Does the Tesla family receive royalties? I doubt it. Maybe this
turn towards electric vehicles will renew interest in cheap if not free
electric power. Will it finally be admitted that the universe along with
everything in it, such as the sun, is electric. Does anyone else find it
odd that since the 1920s nothing much has changed in the field of electronics.
I hear it isn't properly taught. Not even at MIT.
I am probably making a mistake diving into the weeds with you people
again, but basically you people are pointing out flaws in how the economy
has developed in the past generation which are not the fault of the financial
sector.
The economic damage to the middle and working classes have been caused
by five things:
• "Free trade" (deindustrialization)
• Mass immigration
• Union-busting
• Increasing monopoly power
• The healthcare and education rackets
Which of these are the financial sector to blame for exactly, and how?
By shifting your goalposts from wages to household income (ignoring that
the average household size has declined), yet then your turn around and
point out corporate income is historically high. My claim was only that
income has risen. It's just that income has gone to capital rather than
labor in the past generation. That's a political issue.
Musk violated securities laws (likely) in getting Solar City and Tesla
to merge. Beyond that he has risen capital based on the promise of new products
and increasing production. He hasn't delivered as fast as he promised. That
isn't securities fraud, business is hard. Particularly the automotive business.
Critics of the financial sector are claiming they're just paper pushers
who don't allocate capital to industry, yet here we have a glaring example
of where capital markets raise MASSIVE amounts of capital for an entirely
new industry.
There is a world of difference between personal debt, single company
corporate debt, and, economy-wide sovereign debt.
Now that's funny coming from you,Mave!
I was the one who pointed out,to you, the fact that there
was a world of difference between various kinds of debt, e.g., public vs
private debt. Up until I clued you in on that elementary fact, you stood
by your witless comment that "debt is good."
It's as corny and silly as Rand's utterly contemptible and sappy claim
that greed is good.
Try to keep up, will ya?
PS: What does your hero, Krugman say about debt?
Note to those who don't know what this is about, it's a feud between
me 'n The Mave, who is such a guru in econ 101 that he bids us read Krugman
if we want to understand "eekonomiks" as he does.
I mean, really, doesn't that reveal the level on which that one's thought
processes attempt to function?
That would explain a great deal of your typically frantic behaviour.
You have the laughable habit of erecting strawmen.
And that is a fine example of projection.
And speaking of strawman arguments, I responded to this, which is a direct
quote.:
One man's debt is another man's asset.
You would do well to look up the meaning of the word, "strawman."
The statement, as quoted, is evidence of an incapacity to analyze simple
concepts, and it indicates to me that he has nothing to offer me. It's really
quite simple, but keep trying.
Tesla would be profitable by now if it hadn't attempted to build an "alien
dreadnought" fully automated production line and hadn't bothered with the
Model X or Model 3. Other diversions like R&D for a fictitious semi aren't
helpful either.
EVs will be affordable in the next decade as global battery production
ramps up.
But most of these EVs will not be Teslas. They'll be from the traditional
OEMs and some new Chinese companies.
Yes, this is true. Labour share has gone down in relative terms.
Perhaps many categories of labour will continue to devalue, replaced
by automation. We may at some point need to do a cost-benefit analysis
of guaranteed minimum income. I remain somewhat circumspect of the notion.
The automation thing is bullshit handwaving sold by The Ecommunist as
a convenient excuse. The same publication that tells us we need massive
immigration.
We've been "automating" since Watt invented a functional steam engine
and Hargreaves invented the spinning jenny.
Even earlier, really. The Middle Ages saw the invention of the mouldboard
plough and the padded harness, increasing the productivity of agriculture.
Automation increases the value of human labor, though it does cause occupational
and sector displacement.
Guaranteed minimum income is the Silicon Valley version of bread & circuses.
The economic damage to the middle and working classes have been caused
by five things:
Only five things?
You think various scams and frauds such as bailouts, foreign "aid" and
skyrocketing public debt (used criminally in most cases ) have had no effect,
or are they covered by one or more of your five?
The Treasury Department made a profit on the bailout.
Foreign aid is much lower than it was during the golden days of the middle
class, and it's paid out of tax revenues (and bond sales) which are primarily
paid by the wealthy.
I'm opposed to both, but don't see how either harm the middle and working
classes.
I watched that interview a while back, I wish they asked him when his
car came off the line, I think he got one of the early cars, with Tesla
its a bad idea to buy the first cars built, wait for six months or a year
until they have fixed all the problems, after that I think the quality is
far better
The Saudis plan to float Aramco next year for that to be a success they
will want high oil prices, the frackers in the US may cause them problems,
but if the Saudis and the Russians want high prices they should be able
to get close to $100 a barrel if they work together
That should help Tesla and EV sales in general, today I passed my local
filling station on the way to work, petrol was €1.37 per litre and Diesel
was €1.47 per litre, with prices like that EVs have a bright future in Europe
and Asia
Also if Tesla can last long enough to build their Truck they will turn
that whole industry on its head
I'm not even entirely sure whether anyone went to the moon these
days.
I'm entirely sure we didn't.
And, there it goes. Ka-dink, swish, swirl, galook! Straight into the
Wackadoodle Dumper.
Do I recall correctly there being some sort of 80′s social wisdom about
the end of any discussion being the point at which someone was compared
to Hitler? Or somebody called someone a Nazi?
Nowadays, it's the point at which some ignorant jackass asserts a conspiracy
-- usually some variation on the voluminous and multi-fantastic 9/11 conspiracy
collections, but there's been a recent upsurge in moon landing conspiracies.
Electric trucks are a particularly dumb idea other than niche applications
like port trucking (where you could just build a narrow gauge railroad instead).
I'm opposed to both, but don't see how either harm the middle and
working classes.
You don't? Well, fancy that.
The explosive growth of the middle class, and its accelerating acquisition
of assets, is noteworthy. In no time at all, the middle class will re-acquire
the 95% of gross national wealth held by the to-be-pitied "1%". Oh, woe
be to the rich! They die off so swiftly, so unfairly.
The middle class grows fat with the undeserved profits they obtain from
exploiting the wealthy class. It's obscene. There oughta be a law!
Automation increases the value of human labor, though it does cause
occupational and sector displacement.
Isn't that what I said in: "Perhaps many categories of labour
will continue to devalue, " ?
Of course, automation started with the Wheel and labour to capital substitution
increases the marginal productivity of Labour [thus value of Labour]. Nothing
to do with what the Economist says [I don't usually read them].
As I also wrote I am circumspect of the idea of GMI. What I do know is
that the dislocations on account of capital/tech substitution is ratcheting
up very rapidly and that means in the interim we very likely will not see
any significant rise in wages for many categories of labour. How long these
dislocations remain, at what point we have a sufficiently well-endowed Labour
Force, I cannot predict.
I don't think so, if Tesla can deliver their truck with close to the
claimed specs then they will clearly change the whole industry, trunks only
get about 8mpg, so switching to electric power gives massive saving in fuel
and maintenance costs
from what we know plenty of companies with large fleets of trucks have
placed orders with Tesla, assuming Tesla do the job right and the trucks
run well after six months or a year someone will run the numbers for electric
Vs Diesel and there will only be one winner
In practice, owing to widespread atomophobia, fossil fuel energy is required
to produce hydrogen.
Even if atomophobes were sent to concentration camps (as they should
be), why would we want to invest massive amounts of capital for this project?
Because Toyota is enamored?
As I also wrote I am circumspect of the idea of GMI. What I do know
is that the dislocations on account of capital/tech substitution is
ratcheting up very rapidly and that means in the interim we very likely
will not see any significant rise in wages for many categories of labour.
How long these dislocations remain, at what point we have a sufficiently
well-endowed Labour Force, I cannot predict.
This is still nonsense. The biggest drop in wages occurred in the 1980s,
when union-busting kicked into high gear but the manufacturing base was
in tact (and frequently protected, against Reagan's own instincts).
The biggest loss in manufacturing jobs was in the 2000s, conveniently
right after China joined the WTO.
American manufacturing isn't even that automated. Robot density is significantly
lower than leaders like Japan, Germany, and South Korea.
Most of the deindustrialization effect is by now played out, and wages
would start rising again if immigration were actually clamped down on.
What's the evidence for "ratcheting up very rapidly"? Total factor productivity
growth isn't all that high these days.
There was recently an anon on this blog who was obviously an Indian.
He spoke of Dharma, etc. He is the only other fellow but you who I've heard
use the term "white trashionalist", which is a pretty odd coincidence.
Technically, the use of a battery of over seven thousand small lithium
cells ("2170s" – not much bigger than flashlight cells) to power a car feels
very wrong. Wrong because of the labor intensity of manufacture (even if
robotic); wrong because of the multiplication factor upon the reliability.
And just plain inelegant from an engineering point of view.
Still, and all, I know from first hand that courageous new ventures must
necessarily attract monumental criticism until they are finally proved successful:
it is so much easier just to say "no" to a new idea.
Somebody said "you can tell the pioneers by the arrows in their backs".
This is still nonsense. The biggest drop in wages occurred in the
1980s, when union-busting kicked into high gear but the manufacturing
base was in tact (and frequently protected, against Reagan's own instincts).
However, here is a question for you. If you decry the breakup of labour
unions, would you decry as well, a de-cartelisation of Banking? If not,
why not? [Banking is cartelised. Try obtaining a banking license]
Most of the deindustrialization effect is by now played out, and
wages would start rising again if immigration were actually clamped
down on.
That statement is nonsense. I am not a proponent of unrestricted immigration.
I support merit-based immigration. However, wages would not at all start
rising inevitably if immigration were severely restricted tomorrow. There
are many reasons for it, monopsony power of corporates is one big reason.
Forget Hydrogen powered cars, its a joke for people who don't understand
basic physics
Well, maybe. Petroleum will have the edge for another ten years, at least.
Long-term, however, some other energy source will be required. Fuel cells,
or some derivative thereof, may be a possibility. Solar energy for the separation
of water into H and O is free, although the implementation of method is
not.
er . 'White Trashionalist' is a term that has been used since the 90s.
Any basic Google search will confirm this.
If you took off your Gimp suit and got out of the cage once in a while,
you might start to become acquainted with the outside world, and why normal
white people like me avoid you at all costs.
1. Free trade means no tariff risks -- the rich get richer.
2. Immigration lowers labor costs -- the rich get richer.
3. Union busting lowers labor costs -- the rich get richer.
4. Monopolies increase profits directly -- the rich get richer.
5. Healthcare and its associated sub-industries are phenomenally profitable
-- the rich get richer.
I don't deplore the breakup of labor unions since I'm on the capital-management
side. American (and worse, British) labor unions fomented endless trouble
when they were powerful. Just pointing out that union busting obviously
had a major impact.
As for banking, I do support de-cartelisation.
Monopsony power and geographic arbitrage are certainly part of the picture.
Only two in the top ten are in the financial sector, and these days Buffet
is into a lot more than that. No bankers or asset managers.
No shit the rich are getting richer, Sherlock. That isn't the subject
of discussion at all. You're just an idiot like all these other doomerist
clowns.
I'm tired of replying to you morons who don't know shit from shinola.
Sam Shama can deal with you blockheads if he pleases.
You are an idiot. Petroleum will deplete, doofuss. Fuel
cells may be one option, and technologies for producing H from water are
open to development. Solar power has, currently, and I emphasize "currently",
the best profile. Ground-based solar panels are NOT the only option.
Fusion is also a possibility -- dicey, but still a possibility.
Excellent, and predictable! You have declared your expertise to be absolutely
unquestionable, denied all argument to the contrary, and you exit the lists
triumphantly.
SpaceX is obviously being funded by the USG. I can't fly a $25.00 drone
within 1000 yards of any airport, but the government stands by while some
private company flies objects into space? Not buying it.
Those "five things" are concomitant with the massive gains to the financial
sector and increase in its size. That is prima facie evidence right there.
Furthermore, we know financial interests and powerful individuals from the
financial sector have promoted those five things.
I didn't shift goalposts. Wages have stagnated, and so have household
incomes. Household size may have declined, but so what? Most households
used to have one income which was sufficient to support a wife and children.
It's not an example if, as you say, it only happened because of fraud
and illegal activity.
You're the idiot, its possible to buy a fuel cell Mirai in California
now but few people want one because there is no refuelling network, who
wants to buy a car that can't drive anywhere, at the same time the sales
of EVs continue to rise
I NEVER said petroleum would not deplete, but because of fracking its
not something to worry about yet
Using Solar power to create Hydrogen from water is a dumb idea, nobody
who understands the physics would do it, so its you who is the idiot
Forget about Hydrogen powered cars they will NEVER be sold in large numbers
Given my ancestral history, family traditions and values, no. It
has been instilled in me since birth as immoral and dishonorable.
Well, I can understand your tradition but not your perspective. Many
traditions are meant to be broken, but that aside, a hatred for finance,
wilfully conceals from the mind that which is so starkly obvious. None of
what you busy yourself with in your daily life, as in here and now in the
pursuit of keyboard games, would have hardly been possible without modern
finance.
Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, etc all required venture capital and then financial
engineering to get to where they are today. IBM needed the merger of four
companies, public stock issuance with the investment banking talent of Charles
Flint to gain its early incorporation. Do you think all of that would've
been possible without the financial sector? Not a chance.
Take our most gracious host. He is a brilliant man, a trained theoretical
physicist who wrote a piece of great software to value mortgage-backed securities
and then sold his company to another finance company called Moody's to become
independently wealthy. He now uses his wealth to promote free speech – a
very honourable purpose indeed. Hat tip. On occasion, he takes pot shots
at finance; a case, if ever there was one, of the socialite turning up her
nose at the very thing that made her a socialite!
Now, mortgage-backed securities are exactly the sort of financial innovation
that makes finance an indispensable part of any modern economy. How else
could one have high homeownership? This is not to claim that abuses do not
occur. They most certainly do. But show me an abuse-free Industry and I
will gift you a unicorn.
There is plenty of excellent public transit in negro infested cities.
The problem is the negro riders drivers mechanics and managers and heads
of the agencies.
Railroads have been pretty much 100% electrified the whole world over
for nearly 70 years now (except for a handful of tourist and "living museum"
steam trains).
Yet, except for a few very high density traffic segments and where socialist
bureaucracies imposed it such as the old Soviet Union, most railroads still
find it more efficient to have their electric locomotives carry their own
power plants with them than to use and maintain a central grid to provide
power to the locomotives.
Most Countries with modern railroads run electric trains powered by over
head wires, eg the French TGV, German ICE, thats the way any state or private
railway operates if they invest for the longterm
You seem to be talking about Diesel electric, thats something different,
and NO its not more efficient
What that has to do with Tesla, Fuel cells or Hydrogen you neglected
to say
I'd like to see an actual costed bill of materials.
Assuming it's true, it requires $6 billion capex and 150 weeks of 10,000
cars produced per week.
That's half a million cars a year, which of course need to be sold and
serviced. What's the global total addressable market (TAM) for compact executive
sedan (sedan market is crumbling) EVs?
Combined 2017 sales for the BMW 3-series, Mercedes Benz C-class, and
Audi A4 in the USA, Europe, and China was about 975,000 units.
Let's assume the global TAM for compact executive sedans is 2 million
units. Do one quarter of these buyers want EVs? Of those who do, will they
all choose the Model 3? Many, probably most, luxury car buyers have very
poor tolerance for quality and service problems.
And as Tesla also cannot be price competitive in Europe (10% tariff)
or China (25% tariff) without local assembly plants, most of these sales
will have to be made in North America. Countries like Norway are likely
to phase out or reduce their silly EV subsidies, which in any case will
be available to competitors. Tesla can also forget about major sales in
Japan (ever), Korea (ever), or India (without local assembly).
The truck is vaporware, so I wouldn't put much stock in Tesla's claimed
specs.
Most trucking, by ton miles, is long haul trucking.
The claimed 80% range (there will rarely be time to charge to 100%, so
80% "Megacharger" needs to be employed) is only 400 miles. After that, it's
a half-hour recharge.
The Megacharger itself is also dubious–one megawatt is a lot of power.
What kind of electric connectors and safety provisions will be employed?
Musk claims they'll be solar-powered. Really–a one megawatt solar array
at every truck stop? In reality they'll of course be grid connected.
Currently Tesla charges a quarter per kilowatt hour for its supercharger
stations. Based on one megawatt output and 30 minutes charging, the Semi
will take 30,000 kilowatt hour charge. That will cost $7,500. Recharging
from ordinary utility power would "only" cost $3,000.
A new Peterbilt can carry 300 gallons of diesel, which gives a fully
loaded truck a range of 1,800 miles. Filling those two 150 gallon tanks
is only $1,000.
So under realistic conditions energy costs for a new Peterbilt are 34
times lower than the Tesla Semi. Best case conditions, let's say in the
Pacific Northwest on ordinary utility power, "only" ten times.
This isn't like the Model S where recharging it costs you $10 and thus
beats even the most fuel efficient cars on the road.
The basic point that is being missed by this entire discussion is that
the inconvenience of having to plug your car to your house for 4 hours to
"refill" it is worth it only if what you save on gasoline makes the car
cheaper than owning an ICE.
When gasoline is $3 a gallon there are few electric vehicles that can
make this happen. You can get used Nissans for around $10,000.
Theoretically the Tesla Semi needs an 1,100 kwh battery bank.
That's $220 for 400 miles on the "Megacharger"–about the same as the
Peterbilt.
So energy cost is at parity. Range however is shorter and capex is higher
(battery alone almost as much as a new Peterbilt). Given Tesla's quality
issues, opex almost certainly higher as well.
Diesel trucks also have a lot more room to improve their energy efficiency.
There are for instance no hybrid semi trucks with regenerative braking yet,
but there will be. Trucks could also employ combined cycle engines, which
aren't practical in passenger cars owing to space issues.
In other words electric trucks only make good sense for niche applications
like port trucking and inner cities with air pollution concerns. They might
of course be mandated.
The recharging issue doesn't seem like a big deal for typical car users,
who mostly just commute and run errands. Just plug it in at night. If you
want to take a road trip, rent a car.
But they're not suitable for people like me, who need to drive hundreds
of miles (or longer) at a stretch a few times per month.
There's also a hard ceiling on how many EVs can be sold beyond that.
You have the "what if" buyers (look at all the people who buy trucks just
in case they need to move a buddy's couch), and then you have the gasoline-fueled
gearheads who hate EVs and refuse to buy them (also me).
In China it seems likely EVs will be mandated, but will this happen elsewhere?
Britain and France mandating 100% EV sales by 2040 is a joke–like government
policy won't be altered in a 22 year timespan.
Well, I can understand your tradition but not your perspective.
Perspective? Hatred? Where do you get this stuff?
I've been around for a few years, worked for large and small corporations,
in small towns and large metroplexes, from mailroom to CIO. I have yet to
encounter a professional in the "finance" industry who was, or is, an honest
man. You certainly have the option to pursue such a career. I choose not
to.
The financial sector makes billions from student loans used to pay tuition
to the educational racketeers.
Union busting was part of the corporate raising of the pension funds
and the corporate raiders who acquired and disassembled the big corporations
The .50 . 35 zoro interest rates are an evil thing done by the financial
sector. I don't know the motivation of that but zero interest rates are
definitely the fault of the financial sector
AGREE. An all-electric sedan is next on our list and perfectly fits our
needs.
Also, it seems that some EVs around here come with lease offers as good
as internal-combustion vehicles. So I'm not sure that the upfront cost is
greater all the time.
Using Solar power to create Hydrogen from water is a dumb idea, nobody
who understands the physics would do it, so its you who is the idiot
When petroleum depletes, how long will coal and NG last, whether for
power plants or hydrogen production? The remaining choices will be solar,
nuclear, or fusion -- all for electric power.
What's it going to be? Personally, I have a sneaky suspicion that somewhere
in flyover country a lot of progress is being made on laser-controlled fusion,
or some combo of magnetic bottle and laser.
What's more, I'll bet that we won't see a replacement power source until
some entity, under any of many names, is going to make a lot of money with
it.
The recharging issue doesn't seem like a big deal for typical car
users, who mostly just commute and run errands. Just plug it in at night.
If you want to take a road trip, rent a car.
Actually refueling is an inconvenience for me, it'd be simpler to just
plug it in for the night. Except, of course, on longer trips.
Regarding longer trips, currently it's difficult with an electric vehicle.
But maybe in a couple decades ranges will be double what they are, and most
drivers need stops after 500 kilometers to eat and go to the bathroom anyway.
So I guess fully electric vehicles will be fully usable for most users.
I suspect internal combustion engines will be prohibited from entering
a number of rich NIMBY localities. So eventually you will need a hybrid
with a fully electric mode to be able to go to some of your destinations.
Fully gasoline cars will therefore have only limited utility. A lot of people
will buy the cheaper electric only versions, and eventually these will be
the only versions on offer.
This will also be a reason for the electric trucks. Already electric
trolley-buses (often with batteries) are popular in cities. No one likes
diesel smoke, who wants his children to inhale it? Prohibiting diesel or
even all ICE vehicles will increase real estate prices. So local governments
will have an incentive to do that. Legally it's already possible in Germany,
and I suspect it will be possible elsewhere, too. Even the threat of it
was enough to drastically reduce demand for diesel cars in Europe. Once
demand is reduced, the incentive to develop them will be weaker, and eventually
they will be abandoned.
But the big picture is that there are at least 200 million regularly
used passenger vehicles in the United States. I actually look the exact
numbers up occasionally when I do the math. Maybe it is 300 million.
Every year, between 12 and 16 million new vehicles are added to this
and an equal number scrapped.
The buyers you describe are a tiny minority of this total.
We have to also consider the number of urban dwellers who wish to own
a car, but park on the street in places like Boston and for whom plugging
a car in overnight may be a serious issue.
And also there will be the undoubtedly growing number of Uber-type vehicles.
I foresee the EV market as being primarily of a luxury/toy character
for the next decade with an undeterminable number of taxi/fleet/Uber vehicles
added.
Tesla will most likely be a failure in this environment.
The Treasury Department made a profit on the bailout.
That's what they tell us. They always try to bullshit us.
Foreign aid is much lower than it was during the golden days of the
middle class, and it's paid out of tax revenues (and bond sales) which
are primarily paid by the wealthy.
And where do the wealthy get their money? At whose expense do they obtain
their monopolies and monopsonies and oligopolies and oligopsonies?
Do you really not think the US is devolving into a 2 class society?
Perceptive people have been noticing its development for a long time.:
I witnessed the momentous changes and participated
in them. While they were occurring I saw something
else that filled me with dread. I saw the government
of the United States enter into a struggle with the
trusts, the railroads and the banks, and I watched while
the business forces won the contest. I saw the forms
of republican government decay through disuse, and I
saw them betrayed by the very men who were sworn
to preserve and uphold them. I saw the empire of
business, with its innumerable ramifications, grow up
around and above the structure of government.
- R. F. PETTIGREW, TRIUMPHANT PLUTOCRACY, The Story ofAmerican Public
Life from 1870 to 1920.
Here's something more recent, although Pettigrew's comment still applies.:
Men haven't got the freedom today that they had when the Constitution
was written In that time, men could go into their own business. They
could follow farming and they could do this and that. Today, young men
in college are not planning on individual development, as much as getting
a job. They have someone else raise the money, and then they do the
work. And men haven't the freedom because big business doesn't give
it to them.
Your second attempt is far better but you're still too high on the recharge
cost, have another go at it
After that try to figure out the difference in maintenance costs over
the life of the truck, if you can get these numbers right it will start
to make sense to you
There are hundreds of thousands shares of TSLA available for short and
the short fee rate was 3.14% at the end of Friday (2018-06-01), is this
article a short pump like Muddy Water kind of analysis?
Yeah I do see your point on fusion, its only a matter of time before
some nerd or a group of nerds crack it, but I suspect the future will be
powered by Solar PV, the cost keeps dropping and its easy and quick to install
That's what they tell us. They always try to bullshit us.
If you don't accept the audited figures of the Treasury Department, it's
not possible to discuss TARP's profitability unless you have other figures
which suggest the government suffered a loss.
Which in macroeconomic terms wouldn't have been a bad thing at the time
(stimulus), but certainly would increase the injustice.
And where do the wealthy get their money? At whose expense do they
obtain their monopolies and monopsonies and oligopolies and oligopsonies?
#1 – Software, specifically PC operating systems and office software
#2 – Online retail and webhosting
#3 – Investing, largest operations being manufacturing, transportation (BNSF),
and insurance
#4 – Social media (advertising)
#5 – Enterprise software (databases)
#6 – Diversified, but mostly energy
#8 – Financial news
#9 – Search (advertising)
#10 – Search (advertising)
I can go into more detail on each.
Bill Gates: IBM fucked up and let him own DOS
Jeff Bezos: Raised capital from venture capital and an IPO, financed
expansion thereafter out of cashflow. Net worth is also inflated based on
an unrealistic expectation of hockey stick earnings trajectory.
Suckerberg: Stole the idea from the Winkelvoss twins, raised capital
from VC. Lucked out when MySpace turned into a black ghetto.
Larry Ellison: Unsure if VC was involved, IPO in '86 was essential.
Came out with the best database during the critical 90s
Bloomberg: Came out with a superior product for traders who had
never used computers before
Page & Brin: Superior search product, raised seed money through
VC, universities, and military-industrial complex
The people who "suffer"? Consumers and competitors. Though hard to see
how Jeff Bezos harms consumers. Likewise the real consumers of Facebook
and Google (advertisers) don't suffer either (the suckers who use the platforms
are a different story).
Do you really not think the US is devolving into a 2 class society?
When did I say it isn't? Might be more than two classes, but I basically
agree and so do the data.
Pettigrew describes a time which is somewhat like our own.
As for Rankin, blaming "Big Business" for this is more or less a tautology.
The idealized freedom of early America was possible because of the boundless
amounts of land. Capital tends to concentration, and this wasn't actually
a novel observation by Marx. People have known this for thousands of years.
The mid-20th century was an odd time of relative egalitarianism which
developed out of unique historical conditions. It's not likely to be repeated.
manorchurch, the other day you kindly promised to ignore me in the future.
Please abide by it, or at least refrain from answering my comments, if all
you have to offer is name-calling. Thank you.
Let's start at home, in DETROIT, where apparently this writer has never
visited except on the pages of Car & Driver. Roger Smith? Are you kidding?
Detroit is the world capital of incompetence. Roger Smith? Why not Ford's
"genius" Donald Petersen (who publicly admitted being a Mensa member)?
I sold robots to Detroit in the 80's. If you never entered an assembly
plant or parts plant, you should shut the fuck up about what they were then
or now. I have dealt with every type of manufacturing and most types of
service company in my career, none have been remotely as dysfunctional as
auto manufacturing.
Re Tesla, yes, the Model 3 is following the Model X and original Roadster
into a crapfest. But the fanboys don't care. The Model S can still smoke
a Ferrari in the 1/4mi. So the pop media will continue giving Musk a pass
and the gearheads (real ones anyway) will continue to marvel (but probably
never buy). I would be shocked if our pathetic anarcho-tyrannical government
found the balls to call Musk on his shenanigans especially given its own
shenanigans with Government Motors and the UAW.
You mention Ford Europe but not GM (Opel & Vauxhall), wonder why..
Bob Lutz? The dude's like 90 now. Come on. I can walk to his house and
see if he knows whether he's home or not if it helps. But I haven't seen
him on a motorcycle in years or flying for years and those are his passions
in life.
And Ford? Have you ever really looked at the results of a feng shui Chairman
on an industrial company like ole Henry built? The apples have fallen very
far from the tree. Handing the reigns to Mark Field, who lives in Naples,
Florida, was a typically incompetent move by feng shui Billy (the landscaping
at his house occupies him apparently more than the functionality of his
great grandfathers company). Put it like this, Ford is every bit as competently
run as it's sister company the Detroit Lions. Class B stock!
The only things I can endorse in this piece are (1) Toyota has its shit
together more than Detroit (or Honda apparently given their incompetence
in F1), and (2) electrics will not fully replace internal combustion without
government mandates (what kind of idiot would buy a Model S over the slower
Ferrari V12s)?
Tesla Tier 2 Supercharger cost is 25 cents a kilowatt hour in most states.
What's wrong with the figure?
In theory an EV has lower maintenance costs owing to the absence of an
internal combustion engine and complex transmission. In practice Teslas
have higher maintenance costs than conventional vehicles owing to their
poor quality control.
Let's start at home, in DETROIT, where apparently this writer has
never visited except on the pages of Car & Driver. Roger Smith? Are
you kidding? Detroit is the world capital of incompetence. Roger Smith?
By your own admission, Elon Musk chose to copy Roger Smith's disastrous
manufacturing strategy of the 1980s. It's likely he had never heard of this,
as if he had he would not have proceeded with the "alien dreadnought".
Why not Ford's "genius" Donald Petersen (who publicly admitted being
a Mensa member)?
During Petersen's time in the Ford C-suite the company introduced the
Taurus, Escort (North America), and Explorer.
I sold robots to Detroit in the 80's. If you never entered an assembly
plant or parts plant, you should shut the fuck up about what they were
then or now. I have dealt with every type of manufacturing and most
types of service company in my career, none have been remotely as dysfunctional
as auto manufacturing.
I have visited a number of assembly plants.
Probably a salesman (actually, a lot of salesmen) thirty years younger
than you sold robots to Musk.
The global auto industry, warts and all, produced almost one hundred
million cars last year. What other industry produces complex machines on
such a massive scale?
You mention Ford Europe but not GM (Opel & Vauxhall), wonder why..
I'm well aware GM gave up on Europe. None the less "New GM" has posted
a cumulative of $70 billion in profits since it and Tesla IPO'd in the same
year.
Bob Lutz? The dude's like 90 now. Come on. I can walk to his house
and see if he knows whether he's home or not if it helps. But I haven't
seen him on a motorcycle in years or flying for years and those are
his passions in life.
Other than the hybrid diversion (last thing Tesla needs), what about
this is wrong?
And Ford? Have you ever really looked at the results of a feng shui
Chairman on an industrial company like ole Henry built? The apples have
fallen very far from the tree. Handing the reigns to Mark Field, who
lives in Naples, Florida, was a typically incompetent move by feng shui
Billy (the landscaping at his house occupies him apparently more than
the functionality of his great grandfathers company). Put it like this,
Ford is every bit as competently run as it's sister company the Detroit
Lions. Class B stock!
Bill Ford is indeed a dipshit. He's even a vegan .
None the less Ford manages to build six million cars a year and has vast
resources.
As you allude to later, it's not just Ford and GM. There are lots
of automakers with vast resources.
The only things I can endorse in this piece are (1) Toyota has its
shit together more than Detroit (or Honda apparently given their incompetence
in F1), and (2) electrics will not fully replace internal combustion
without government mandates (what kind of idiot would buy a Model S
over the slower Ferrari V12s)?
Toyota is late to the EV party. But I have a feeling it won't take them
long to catch up with their eleven-figure annual profits and $25 billion
in the bank.
Its wrong because you assume the Megachargers will be priced the same,
we don't know this yet
Second I suspect most of the trucks will be charged over night for far
less than 25cents per kilowatt, the Tesla truck will easily beat Diesel
trucks on running costs, no doubt about that IMO, thats why Tesla have over
2000 orders, the industry won't be slow to dump the ICE
with Tesla any brand its a bad idea to buy the
first cars built, wait for six months or a year until they have fixed
all the problems, after that I think the quality is far better
FIFY
BTW, you can see this play out in the market if you watch the manufacturer
auctions. Look at the number of manufacturer buyback units in the lanes.
But, true, we don't know what the price will be yet.
If charged overnight you're right, though again those trucks won't come
from Tesla.
Diesel trucks could match these energy costs by adopting combined cycle
hybrid powertrains, and perhaps moving to natural gas. Of course then the
upfront capital cost advantage presumably disappears.
The "orders" (truck is vaporware and will never enter production) might
be down to running costs, but don't forget hype and trend following.
Charlie Munger likes to talk about when in the 80s Exxon bought a fertilizer
company. All of the other oil majors followed and bought their own fertilizer
plants. It turned into a fiasco.
Tesla and SpaceX are the shiny stars of the American technology, it cannot
fail in front of the rising power of China. Most of the Americans believe
in that and pinning their hope on Musk to turn Make American Great dream
come true.
I don't think it fair to call the Megachargers vapourware, they will
be built
Why won't the Tesla trucks be charged over night ?
ah OK you think the whole thing is never going to happen, fair enough
only time will tell I suppose, but if Tesla show even a small profit by
the end of the year they will last until 2019 and we will see the trucks
on the road
Second I suspect most of the trucks will be charged over night for
far less than 25cents per kilowatt, the Tesla truck will easily beat
Diesel trucks on running costs, no doubt about that IMO, thats why Tesla
have over 2000 orders, the industry won't be slow to dump the ICE
They need to develop roadside swappable batteries or inductive charging
while underway before we see OTR tractor widespread adoption. 2K units is
nothing in that market. And unlike early adopters of electric autos, early
adopters of electric tractors will be betting their livelihood on the reliability
of the machine and range is a much bigger issue since even city trucks are
frequently run all day every day. Also, have they come up with reefer trailers
(or boxes) yet?
SpaceX is very different to Tesla, Teslas future is in doubt, SpaceX
clearly lead the world in rocket technology, most people think Musk is bullshitting
about sending people to Mars but he's well on the way now, the only company
close to SpaceX is Blue Origin and they won't reach orbit until 2020 if
it all goes well for them
Has anyone seen a Tesla Megacharger? It doesn't exist. Hence it's vaporware.
That doesn't mean it couldn't be built or anything, obviously there's nothing
intrinsically impossible about producing a megawatt charger.
Why won't the Tesla trucks be charged over night ?
My prediction is that long haul trucking will move towards using trucks
24 hours a day once self-driving technology gets good enough and the human
driver can sleep on the road. Letting a truck sit overnight is such a waste.
Alternatively fleets can swap drivers, but obviously that's a bit complicated
which is why it's not really done now. Plus in North America at least most
trucks are owner-operated (different in Europe of course, don't know how
it works in Asia).
ah OK you think the whole thing is never going to happen, fair enough
only time will tell I suppose, but if Tesla show even a small profit
by the end of the year they will last until 2019 and we will see the
trucks on the road
Tesla has already admitted the truck is not currently under "active development",
which gets to the heart of the problem of the company. They've obviously
proven they can engineer great products and have tremendous star power,
but they're not very good at anything else.
Based on Tesla's production track record it's exceedingly unlikely they'll
post a profit at the end of this year.
That's not to say there won't be electric trucks. You've already made
a great case as to why there will be electric trucks.
The suicidal Tesla was a convert to Islam. Belgium's full of them. Lucky
that it did not try to board a train like that crazy shooter in the Clint
Eastwood film.
True enough, but they have a very monopolistic look about them. On the
one hand monopolies are great (very profitable) but on the other, they allow
price gouging since there's no competition – hence the legislation.
Monopolies can delay the fateful day by buying politicians ( the present
bought and paid for Congress), but longer term they need a dictatorship
(of the proletariat, of big business, or Counter Culturals or Zionists or
anything really) to shut down the public, with some kind of "Homeland Security"
to detain dissidents.
This is where we are now, with the antidote being the breakup of the
Union. Each Federal State fixes its own spending, taxation and debt issuance
(disowning the FED), and requires by law, active citizen participation and
voting to determine policy (e.g. no votes or budget for an Iran war).
I agree that the mid 20th century middle working class was anomaly that
will never be repeated unless a miracle happens and the US population goes
down to 20o million
As if mortgage finance preceded people living in homes. And forget all
the bullshit spewed about how much home ownership is indispensable for a
society: American culture (people enjoying the actual way they live) was
far better pre-1900 than it is today.
One additional nail in Tesla's coffin could conceivably come from the
failure of Global Warming to materialize as predicted. Indeed, the 17-year-long
'pause' in global warming continues, even though the amount of CO2 in the
Earth's atmosphere is now beyond 400 ppm.
Yet, to date, there have been no environmental catastrophies tied to
anthropogenic global warming. Dire predictions from the 'warmist community'
have been a bust.
Keep in mind also that the natural forces and variables that steer our
planet's climate and weather are immense and, in some cases, not fully understood.
Mysteries abound. The interactive effects of these natural forces are chaotic,
unpredictable, and presently beyond the reach of even any supercomputer.
Climate mysteries continue.
If catastrophic, anthropogenic global warming does not arrive as predicted
(very possible) then the carbon taxes and pro-EV tax breaks might come to
a sudden and surprising halt. This will further undermine Tesla's rent-seeking
economic strategy.
It seems Tesla is going to defile the name of famous inventor? His name
shall be the synonym for the smart selling of sweet foam, in an extremely
advanced packaging. Will the Tesla family sue EM for this shame?
By your own admission, Elon Musk chose to copy Roger Smith's disastrous
manufacturing strategy of the 1980s. It's likely he had never heard
of this, as if he had he would not have proceeded with the "alien dreadnought".
Not at all. Smith's epic failure wasn't in attempting to automate, but
in attempting to change Detroit. The robots weren't the problem. They put
wheels on cars and torqued the lug nuts. They welded panels. They tacked
off primed bodies before being painted. They applied paint and clear coat.
The problem was in the laborers who worked the floor and sabotaged the robots
or simply just didn't do their jobs.
I've seen hundreds of auto workers asleep on the assembly line. Asleep.
Or nodding off on dope. Massive signs in Ford bathrooms "employees caught
using drugs on premise will be referred". Books have surely been written
on the insanity of the UAW. If not, there's a mountain of material just
waiting.
I had constant customer calls in the 80's about workers screwing up my
robots and destroying both units on the line as well as severely damaging
my machines, taking them out of operation (and thus stopping the line) until
I could send crews to fix them. Routine maintenance wasn't done either and
fully half the machines were less than useless at any given time, resulting
in rework rates that were no better than before the machines were installed.
Electric vehicles are a more energy efficient form of transport, so it
will be cheaper in the long-term scale – whether there is man-made global
warming or not. There would be less chance for subsidies in the latter case,
but the intrinsically more energy efficient transport will eventually win
on costs without subsidies.
Although main advantage in my opinion is more simply moving emission
fumes away from population centers.
Alternatively fleets can swap drivers, but obviously that's a bit
complicated which is why it's not really done now. Plus in North America
at least most trucks are owner-operated (different in Europe of course,
don't know how it works in Asia).
Driving teams are common as chrome in the OTR biz. It's another major
obstacle for electrics as a diesel fill takes 20 minutes and the rig is
back on the road with one team member snoozing in the sleeper and one behind
the wheel. JIT manufacturing and produce demand it.
Self driving OTR tractors are an interesting subject. Who will insure
them? Private auto liability is one thing, company owned tractors are another.
My belief is that government would have to step in and limit liability claims
against AI drivers for this to ever work. And with the Democratic Party
run by trial lawyers
"Elon Musk is now warning that unless we want to become these computer's
"pets", we must ourselves merge with AI (artificial intelligence). Intel
says that by 2020 human brains will contain chips which will run the computers
to "prevent" this AI takeover.
These kinds of fear-provoking statements reflect the old Masonic project
advancement technique of problem-reaction-solution, or Ordo Ab Chao (Order
out of Chaos). They first create a problem, then fix it with a Draconian
solution which will advance their Great Work of Ages or New World Order."
Yes, thank you. It was one of the very central ideas Krugman wanted to
drive home, particularly for David Brooks' readership.
You insist on calling it funny, which is your prerogative. A sense of
humour is rather a personal taste, and I do understand your position. Better
than you or I go into the same routine, it might better serve purposes to
take a squint at some of the top comments:
Ron Mitchell
Dubin, CAAug. 21, 2015
Times Pick
Our Federal Budget is around $3.5 Trillion. Our GDP (national income) is
around $20 Trillion. Our nations net worth (savings and investments) is
around $80 Trillion. There is plenty of money available to borrow. If Growth
exceeds investments then the nation makes a profit.
122 Recommend
Joe From Boston
MassachusettsAug. 21, 2015
Times Pick
For all those fiscal conservative who have a big problem with government
debt (but who assure us that the government should behave like our individual
households), consider this:
Private debt for economically sound purposes, like buying a home or building
a business, that are expected to provide an economic return, are reasonable
debts.
Private debt for reasons that have, or are expected to provide, no economic
return, like going on a fancy vacation, are not reasonable debts if they
endanger one's ability to pay them back. I was raised with the precept that
"if you can't afford it, don't buy it."
Can you conservatives kindly explain why debt to build infrastructure
that we clearly need, like roads, bridges, the tunnel under the Hudson for
Amtrak, and so forth, are UNREASONABLE? They will generate an excess economic
return, as history has shown, for example with the interstate road system
and the railroads. They will also generate jobs that can only be performed
by local personnel, typically AMERICANS
David desJardins
Burlingame CAAug. 21, 2015
Times Pick
Maybe we should also mention that the balance sheet of the US government
is strongly positive. The tangible assets it owns (even ignoring future
tax revenue) are worth much more than its debt. Calling the government broke
is like calling a homeowner broke because he has a $1 million mortgage on
his $3 million home.
Other than the hybrid diversion (last thing Tesla needs), what about
this is wrong?
Um, $2/gal gas?
Detroit does this again and again and again. They were too stupid to
see that the Minority Mortgage Meltdown (TM Steve Sailer) would stuff their
business model. Too stupid to see that rising fuel prices would stuff their
reliance on pickups and body-on-frame SUVs for profitability. Too stupid
to see that models like the Taurus, apparently designed solely for fleet
sales, were unwanted by consumers who preferred the reliability of a Camry.
In the mid 2000's, dealers were dumping MSO SUV units at auction below factory
invoice – years before the financial collapse.
GM's recent profits are entirely at the expense of communities hosting
derelict abandoned toxic sites that were formerly GM factories as well as
non-UAW labor retirees who lost everything. Thanks Obola Feral Government.
No matter, Detroit incompetence will restore the status quo soon enough.
Saturn 2 maybe? A new, new type of car company..
Fuel prices are heading sharply back north at the same time the manufacturers
are abandoning sedans for SUVs and crossovers. Future "clunkers" when that
Feral program is rebooted.
As for the rush to EVs, it's ONLY due to Tesla's market valuation that
Detroit is producing crap like Volt/Bolt. I've seen Ford admit this and
I'm sure GM is on the same wavelength since independent thought in Detroit
died the day Heinz Prechter blew his brains out. Soon enough I expect to
see local storage lots filled with Bolt/Volt/Jolt/Dolt models just like
they used to be filled with EV-1s.
Since the comments have gone off topic, let me expound on a proposal
I submitted in 2001. I believe there is a low tech device that can be used
to generate electricity from fusion.
Build a "box" big enough and strong enough to contain a full blown thermal
nuclear explosion.
Such a box could also generate electricity from the permanent disposal
of high level nuclear waste such as spent fuel rods.
If you insist, I'll publish the proposal and some of the responses.
Those people you list owe their fortunes to network effect monopolies.
Their fortunes are based on rent-seeking due to the network effect aka network
externality aka natural monopoly.
A tax on net assets at a rate equal to the rate of interest on the national
debt that eliminates other forms of taxation will mitigate this private
sector rent seeking and help restore the egalitarian middle class society
of the mid 20th century.
The economic damage to the middle and working classes have been caused
by five things
No. Those things worsen the situation but are more or less reversible.
What is really painful and persists generation after generation is the cyclical
nature of our economic pattern of growth. When financial bubbles periodically
collapse they cause a great deal of human suffering, even to the rich, but
I don't believe that there is any natural law that demands that economic
growth must proceed through cycles of general expansion and general collapse.
At the same time, these "business cycles" of bubbles and crashes are difficult
to imagine in a world without fractional reserve banking.
Now, I don't know what the exact disadvantages of a full reserve banking
system would be. My knowledge is limited and I haven't had the time to think
or read about it in depth. But I get the impression that academics mostly
avoid discussing this issue. The fractional reserve banking issue is generally
(though not always) brought up by Libertarians so some appear to consider
it an unworthy matter of debate. Still, if we could manage to avoid the
plague of economic crises and depressions, we would all be much better off,
regardless of all those income distributions trends.
I iike the way Aldrin was physically attacking a 'Moon-landings never
happened' type some years ago.
OTOH, unlike your other intelocutor, I find the arguments interesting.
You use a very weak point, once out of the Earth's gravity well, it is
taking little energy to go further.
More interesting is that all of the Apollo astronauts (except the ones
burnt on the launch pad) had relatively long lives.
As you also say, why no radiation effects?
I have a nice program on my phone, from Russia, it is a 'day of the ISS'.
When I am watching it, I try to study Russian Cyrillic, but also thinking
'this looks like a space-ship, but it is not going anywhere, except low
orbit.'
Roscosmos was offering an Apollo 8 style flight around the Moon on a
modern Soyuz for many years, of course, very expensive, but well within
the means of space-fan tech billionaires and many others
No such flight was ever booked, surprising to me, and it is no longer
on offer, AFAIK.
Why?
Unlike you, I won't say 'the Moon landings never happened', but
Hell, O.J.Simpson did a Moon-landimg in Capricorn 1、
Another reason Tesla is a failed business model and always was, as any
auto manufacturing start-up would be at this juncture, is the fact that
as a species Human has reached Peak Mobility. We're on the downside of Mobility
now due to resource constraints. Mobility from here on out will only increase
in virtual world electronically via bits & bytes. And hey, they're working
on Teleportation so who knows, in 40 years Scotty may be beaming us to the
gold mines in the Congo where we can direct the African slaves digging away
in the dirt to exactly which nuggets we want for our gold toilets.
EVs have had forever now to prove themselves and sorry, it's just never
going to happen. The next latest & greatest technology related to Mobility
is in The Pipeline and EVs were squashed by the auto manufacturers for far
too long to the point it missed the Opportunity Window for scalable implementation.
If the Elite want the next latest & greatest in Mobility Technology,
they're going to have to pay dearly for it rather than doing what they've
done in the past and roll out scalable perverted facsimiles of the technology
to the masses in order to subsidize their Bells & Whistles versions. That
can't & won't happen with this next wave of cutting edge Mobility Technology.
It will be for the Elite only, and the Elite will have to pay dearly for
it.
The Working Class was, and still is, its own worst enemy. It bought into
the Myth that their Precious Little Darlings were all Einsteins waiting
to Self-Actualize and so they spent gobs of their hard-earned money to send
those Precious Little Darlings to University to kick-start that process
of Einsteinatization.
Guess what? It never materialized. Surprise-Surprise!!! Their Precious
Little Darlings, as it turns out, weren't Einsteins afterall, but instead
Unremarkable Cube Monkeys, Corporate Catamites if you will, with worthless
diplomas versus diploma-less Factory Floor Workers with the only difference
being, as a Cube Monkey you get to press the Internet Levers all day as
a perk and if you press the right ones, you get a banana, a rarity, if you're
lucky.
How did The Working Class expect to maintain itself if the jobs it was
working weren't good enough for the Little Einsteins it was raising? By
virtue of this fact, it forfeited any right to complain about its jobs disappearing
since it fueled the demand-destruction of those jobs in mythologically believing
its progeny were too good for such ignoble endeavors.
You use a very weak point, once out of the Earth's gravity well,
it is taking little energy to go further.
The point is that near Earth orbit is still within the gravity
well; reaching Earth orbit takes only a small fraction of the energy required
to actually leave the well.
As you also say, why no radiation effects?
Not necessarily radiation effects, but lunar missions should have resulted
in measurably higher readings on the dosimeters than Earth orbit missions.
Bicycles are the only advancement in human transportation.
Cars are actually slower. Slow as walking.
The model American puts in 1600 hours to get 7500 miles: less than
five miles per hour. In countries deprived of a transportation industry,
people manage to do the same, walking wherever they want to go, and
they allocate only 3 to 8 percent of their society's time budget to
traffic instead of 28 percent.
I salute your inventiveness, Mark. However, I believe the "thermonuclear
containment box", while useful for small applications, produces a mere googol
of terawatts over a 1500-year lifetime of power production.
Compare that trivial output to that of the "Congress-critter containment
box", which produces a googolplex of terawatts over an eternal lifetime.
I think you'll agree that nothing matches the pure heat output of massed
Congressional representatives. Throw in their loyal staffs, and the people
of Earth could spend weekends in the Andromeda galaxy, while never lacking
for air-conditioning.
But, do keep inventing, Mark. And send a few bucks every week to your
loyal, hard-working Congressperson.
The roof tiles raised some eye brows here in Wales. Tata Steel (& predecessors)
has been developing them for over 10 years. The problem is not a PV layer.
The problem is that 20 years of neglect on a roof requires very good coating
technology. Even coloured tiles, where Tata is teçhnical leader, are quite
demanding. Very few good players.
The electricity that EV's consume will have been subject to large conversion
losses and large transmission losses. Overall natural gas well/çoal mine
to rubber on the road needs economic renewables or baseload nukes to make
sense.
Biological hydrogen (think methane and ammonia) is the likely route if
hydrogen ever becomes economic. There are production sites now and a UK
railway company plans fuel cell locomotives shortly. That said locos are
going out of fashion in favour of mixed multiple units, Japanese style (electric
or diesel under every alternate cars). No good for a US freight railway.
Electric trucks are a particularly dumb idea other than niche applications
like port trucking (where you could just build a narrow gauge railroad
instead)
.
The electric trucks will start at the port like the containers did, then
spread out with the help of rebuilt hiway systems dedicated to that development
I think. Steel rails were great in their day, (before there was digital
systems to guide vehicles precisely and reliably,) that is what they do
by restraining the wheels to a particular long pre-established rote path.
(Some switching is allowed, little as possible.)
Rubber tire is king now. Check out the robots in this video of automatic
port.
Not how all the wheels steer for tight turning, and they are slow for
now, but will speed up later.
New rail road loading/discharge near the ships are automated too, double
stacked etc.
Narrow gauge is for mines in the old days, and amusement parks.
And they are expected to last a lot longer so amortization will be over
20+ years. Which is why they may become taxis for the masses while only
the rich, the rural and petrolheads own personal vehicles.
Electric motor is (a lot) more efficient at converting electrical energy
to mechanical energy, than internal combustion engine conversion of the
chemical energy in hydrocarbon, into thermal energy, into mechanical energy
.
You're right, there is a trick here.
The electrical energy itself has to be produced (and transported and
stored).
But natural gas, coal, fuel oil, and even petroleum electricity generation,
then to electric motor, is still not only a much more efficient energy conversion
process (than the ICE), but there are far more various sources– while sources
of petroleum are limited, and in many places require long transportation
to even get to the market.
The funny part is that, even with an extra step forward and a step backward,
petroleum electricity generation, to the electric motor, will still be more
efficient use of petrol to mechanical energy conversion (as far efficiency
of the initial power station conversion is so much better than the engine
in the car).
And we can already see reflected in the market the end of the whole comparison
– in lower costs per kilometer traveled in an electric vehicle than an internal
combustion engine powered vehicle.
On second thought, your objection to my gravity argument has merit –
I neglected the kinetic energy of the Earth orbit, which already amounts
to roughly one half of the energy required to leave Earth's gravity. Still,
if we assume roughly equal energy expenditure for reaching Earth orbit and
for going from there to the moon, then there remains a noticeable discrepancy
between 1/25 payload to Earth orbit and 1/3 payload from Earth orbit to
moon.
Biological hydrogen (think methane and ammonia) is the likely route
if hydrogen ever becomes economic.
I'm inclined to agree, emphasis on "if" hydrogen becomes the default.
There's power options enough for surface transportation and domestic
electric grid. As I said, I really do suspect there is a fusion power method
that will manifest itself when outages begin, and mucho money can be made.
Have you any thoughts on a replacement aircraft fuel?
One question I had in mind is what Model 3 owners think of their cars.
I mean, those whose cars haven't crashed yet, which is the vast majority.
One annoying stereotype is that Tesla owners are like vegans or crossfit
enthusiasts, they just can't stop talking about their hobby. This is actually
a good thing for the company. Its owners destroy their own reputations to
enhance that of the company. Nassim Taleb wrote that he bought a Tesla after
his neighbor has had one for a couple years and was still enthusiastic about
it.
The electricity that EV's [sic] consume will have been subject to
large conversion losses and large transmission losses.
Y es, this is an intractable problem that is further complicated
by inefficiencies introduced to the electrical grid by intermittent, unreliable
power sources such as wind turbines and solar arrays. It's like using a
very long, leaky hose on a gas pump to fill your tank. Some of the fuel
just spills on the ground, and never makes it to your car, but you
we pay for it anyway.
Batteries remain the other big problem with EVs. Current battery technology
does not give EVs adequate range to make them practical for anything but
local errands and light commuting. In addition, lithium ion batteries are
dirty to produce, but since most of the production is done off shore and
out of sight in China, the Greenies with more money than common sense
can feel all virtuous and superior hauling groceries -- or zipping out
to Starbucks for a frothy latte -- in their pricey EV.
Coal is our most abundant fuel. There may be several hundred years
worth of coal reserves , but green propaganda has convinced many scientific
ignoramuses that coal is too dirty to burn because it supposedly contributes
to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and that might lead to
runaway global warming where Earth could become like Venus.
Wc can thank Carl Sagan for some of that runaway science fiction.
The United States has about 25% of the world's proven coal reserves.
We could probably be entirely energy efficient if we burned our coal, which
can be done cleanly and efficiently in modern coal-fired power plants with
scrubbers and other technology to remove pollution.
Irrespective of the EPA's idiotic proclamations, CO₂ is not a pollutant.
However, carbon dioxide does help plants grow bigger and better while requiring
less H₂O, which is the reason many greenhouse operators elevate the CO₂
levels in their growing enclosures for a real greenhouse effect from the
mighty molecule.
In the meanwhile, the so-called "renewable" energy sources like wind
turbines and solar arrays can't carry their own weight, and must rely on
back-up conventional power plants fired by coal, oil, natural gas, or nuclear
fission for when the wind doesn't blow, and the sun doesn't shine. Even
with big loans and subsidies, operations like Solyndra have gone belly up,
costing taxpayers $535 million for that single boondoggle alone, thanks
to the poor man's friend waging his war on coal, Barrack Obama.
But of course, thorium reactors that will fit in the trunk of your EV
are coming real soon now , so there's a real hot tip for all
you stock market tycoons looking to make a bundle; just be careful where
you stick it.
The biogenic origin of oil is a theory. The competing abiotic or abiogenic
theory of the origin of petroleum argues that oil is produced naturally
in the bowels of the Earth, and wells up toward the surface where it accumulates
in the so-called reservoir rocks, or formations.
A mangled version of the abiogenic origin of oil was offered to the West
by Thomas Gold, but most of the original work was done by Russians and Ukrainians
during the Soviet era based on theories originally espoused by Von Humbolt,
Mendeleev, and others in the 19th century.
(Grammar note: Never use apostrophe+s -- ('s) -- to form plural
of nouns in English, except when forming the plural of lower case letters,
like p's and q's).
The biogenic origin of oil is a theory. The competing abiotic or
abiogenic theory of the origin of petroleum argues that oil is produced
naturally in the bowels of the Earth, and wells up toward the surface
where it accumulates in the so-called reservoir rocks, or formations.
Jeeze, bullshit doth verily abound. Petroleum is composed of organic
compounds from the breakdown of plants. First thing abiotic theory must
produce is an explanation of how rocks deep in the mantle manage to produce
organic compounds containing eukaryotic DNA.
how rocks deep in the mantle manage to produce organic compounds
containing eukaryotic DNA
I t's not a very strong argument. There are heat-loving microbes
that consume oil -- and some kind of microbe eats virtually everything else
-- so finding organic remains within the oil is no great surprise, and even
if they don't eat it, they might get caught up in it, like Smilodon
at La Brea, a cat with only 8 lives. Association does not prove causation
any more than the presence of fish in the sea proves that the fish created
the water.
NASA's Cassini spacecraft showed us that Saturn's moon Titan has sizable
surface lakes full of ethane, methane, and propane, proving incontrovertibly
that you don't need vegetation or the "breakdown of plants" to create the
so-called "fossil fuels."
Saturn's smoggy moon Titan has hundreds of times more natural gas
and other liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas
reserves on Earth, scientists said today.
We humans are still relative ignoramuses about Earth, and have only just
scratched the surface of our own planet, with the deepest drills going down
only about 40,000 ft. or so, while the fabled journey to the center of the
Earth would require a trip of about 4,000 miles straight down, so we aren't
quite there yet, but watch out! According to climate authority, almost-President,
inventor of the Internet, and green guru Al Gore, "The interior of the earth
is extremely hot, several millions of degrees."
Whew! No wonder he's worried about the Earth melting.
If hydrocarbons are created naturally on Titan, there is no reason to
doubt that they could be created naturally on Earth as well. In fact, as
far as we can tell, hydrocarbon molecules appear to be common and widespread
throughout the universe.
"Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are the most abundant complex
molecules in space.
As things get nasty, China will resort to overt military pressure
on the rest of the world, or maybe it will give up its objective of
global domination and rely on everyone being nice to it!
Economic domination, by for example China (or really anyone else) cannot
be stopped or even impeded by means of military pressure or diplomatic intrigue
– the two main tools favored by Washington. Biased reporting by the "Fake
News Media" is even more ineffective.
What WILL WORK is what worked in the 1980s in responding to Japan's rise:
the United States and Germany got their economic houses in order, and even
South Korea and Taiwan aggressively ramped up their quality and productivity
to get up to Japan's level.
It was a long process for all of these nations, but it was the only option.
E-Trade shows a 1% Hard to Borrow fee for Tesla, which isn't really bad
considering it's prorated over a year. It costs barely over a penny a day
per share to short.
Surely, one cannot blame the whole financial sector. But certain parts
of it would not survive without Government bail outs every 10-20 years.
Those parts are definitivly working in a parasitic manner by shifting their
risks on the general public by levereging their systemic importance ("too
big to fail" etc ).
Also, as one hears from some traders, the stock market is used less and
less to raise fresh capital for companies but operates more like a zero
sum casino game for speculators. Of course, speculation enables market liquidity
but this is only useful if it supports the primary of function of raising
capital for new ventures.
I have no problems with casino capitalism, since no one has to be harmed
if one chooses not to participate. But lets call a spade a spade and, more
importantly, let the banks bear the responsibility for their own actions.
That is, risks have to be shifted back to bank owners by higher equity requirements
and, possibly, stricter punishments for financial misbehavior. Some kind
of regulation is also needed in order to enable the regulating authorities
to swiftly enforce bankruptcy proceedings without hampering the systemic
functions that the financial sectors provides (by some pre-structering of
bank operations or something similar).
Unbelievably, there is talk of electric aeroplanes. I think this implies
a turbine somewhere with other systems such as propellers to be electric.
Enough kerosene can always be grown in a field.
Meanwhile, I am actually putting commercial effort into Thorium. Supplying
the materials for a molten salt reactor to be exact.
I just mentioned thorium elsewhere. I am doing work in the field.
EV's. A product of inattention when using a tablet, which forces apostrophes
where they are not wanted. That said, when actually typing they come mechanically
from my fingers at times. I have glaucoma so proof reading is not a strength.
Unbelievably, there is talk of electric aeroplanes. I think this
implies a turbine somewhere with other systems such as propellers to
be electric. Enough kerosene can always be grown in a field.
I figure the first sign of true petroleum depletion will be restrictions
on air travel by the unwashed and unanointed. Only the government, and the
military, of course, will be entitled to air travel. It takes an awful lot
of field-grown kerosene to fly airplanes.
Thorium will work for safe reactors. I'm still betting on fusion.
Musk and his accomplishments, views serves as an aspiration to our generation.
The big problem with his views – HE RUNS A BUSINESS AS A TECH STARTUP. In
tech scale is not a problem, you can scale from thousands to millions to
hundreds of millions or even billions of users (Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp
etc) in a relatively short period of time. In tech you can literally deliver
"crap" fast, lacking most of the functionality, but be the first one to
capture the market and gradually improve and patch the system.
If he had partnered with big car manufacturer he could have delivered on
promises by now. And have a successful enterprise in partnership with big
car manufacturer.
The theory of reflexivity is of limited use in my experience. However
TSLA is an example of positive reflexivity. As such it can 'defy gravity'
for an unknown period, and is immune to normal valuation metrics, I consider
it un-investable.
Listening to their annual meeting, this is a cause as much as a business.
A lot of owners are stockholders and vice versa. Its market cap is $50 Billion.
GM is $60 B and F is $47 B.
I could see it raising a LOT of capital and think it has a runway beyond
the model 3. They just need to scrape by with the 3. Fanbois will tolerate
no profits for a long time.
The meeting was more like a revival than a business meeting. For many
of the reasons that GM and F are bad businesses. TSLA is on a tilted playing
field. Consumer Reports changing its recommendation? It wouldn't happen
for anyone else. TSLA gets away with things that GM and Toyota have been
fined billions for.
Tesla is burning through one billion per quarter and is likely to
run out of cash this year
I haven't checked their cash burn, but $1B a quarter? Other than issuing
equity, they could do a convertible preferred again or a rights offering.
A flood of competition is inbound
This is the only risk I can see getting traction. The other stuff won't
happen until after it fails.
I started looking into this as a short–but it seems suicidal. You could
be both right and broke.
No, his opinions are interesting with plenty of good points, but he never
talks about the issue of autonomous cars, thats fine if he assumes that
autonomous cars are not possible any time soon, however, if autonomous cars
are possible then the car industry as we know it is about to change completely
and totally
Bravo. I thought exactly this years ago, but it seemed just simply pointless,
really even bothering to try to argue the toss with people who think they
know everything.
Time the governments told the truth. Think I've heard that somewhere
before, too.
2 – It will destroy his halo, which is source of his success. This
is why Musk committed securities fraud in order to have Tesla acquire
Solar City, which was rapidly headed for bankruptcy. With his reputation
in tatters, it will call into question his leadership of Space X. Certainly
ideas like going to Mars with other people's money will be out.
I'm certainly no SpaceXpert (haha), but I've done a lot of reading on
the subject, recently. Assuming his other ventures can't drag SpaceX down
financially (a safe assumption, from what little I've read on the
topic), Mars will be fine. He can get started for like a billion – far less
than cash-guzzler ULA is asking ($25 billion all-in, much of which has already
been spent on SLS without a single launch).
And by "get started," I mean land the seed colony on Mars. Really, it's
everything other than getting to Mars that's the problem.
Last I heard (as of about a month ago), SpaceX has pretty much no plan at
all for the colony itself. All the tech still needs to be designed.
But SpaceX doesn't need a Mars trip or a Mars colony. At all. It's just
Musk's aspiration. If the satellite cloud plan (the official name escapes
me ATM) works, SpaceX could be printing money within a few years. Even if
it doesn't, SpaceX is eating every other launch provider's lunch. The race
is very much theirs to lose.
A lot of the Tesla bears assume there's something wrong with Space
X as well, but I don't think this is warranted. One guy who is documenting
all the Model S suspension failures has invented a half-cocked conspiracy
theory that Space X's achievements are fictitious. It's pretty common
for short sellers to get emotional during a great bear raid, which is
part of the fun.
Anything's possible, but if so Musk has a lot of very serious aerospace
types totally snowed. And it's some sleight of hand he's pulling, steadily
dropping what SpaceX charges to launch.
SpaceX is obviously being funded by the USG. I can't fly a $25.00
drone within 1000 yards of any airport, but the government stands by
while some private company flies objects into space? Not buying it.
This makes literally no sense.
Tesla and SpaceX are the shiny stars of the American technology,
it cannot fail in front of the rising power of China. Most of the Americans
believe in that and pinning their hope on Musk to turn Make American
Great dream come true.
China has an admirable space program, but we must be forgiven for thinking
a chink nationalist is just letting his envy do the talking.
Also, at this point I think the Mars plan and the restarting of 2001
that Musk and SpaceX have done are bigger than Musk. I think both will
easily survive Musk leaving the picture entirely.
Yes, BFR and BFS are both still just concept drawings and marketing talk
as far as the public is concerned, but even if they were scrapped right
this minute, SpaceX could still get us to Mars with Falcon Heavy. But I
wouldn't bet against BFR and BFS.
Protip, the current SpaceX action, other than development of BFR/BFS,
is Block 5, the first version of Falcon 9 with a reusable core, and the
final planned version of the vehicle. SpaceX plans to reuse Block 5 cores
3 or 4 times this year. Long term, they plan to phase everything else out
as BFR/BFS come online.
An acquaintance in NYC just received his Model 3 delivered to him. Previously
he had a 2007 Audi (I'm unsure what model), and he's super happy with his
Model 3. He likes the driving experience (he's driving quite fast and aggressively),
the gadgets (he's a bit of a technophile, too), and he thinks maintenance
will be cheap, so that once he's paid the price upfront, it'll cost next
to nothing to him for another 10-20 years (depending on battery life, which
he expects to be actually two decades). He also likes the fact that it's
"good for the environment," as he put it.
Musk is the best thing that happened to America in the last several decades.
America should be proud.
Is he perfect ? are his businesses perfect ? who cares. What matters
is that he is a fantastic innovator who has no known rivals right now. And
HE is HERE, in the USA.
The Ford, Gm, Krysler elephants who have been making nothing but hideous
cars forever (ok, there might be a couple of exceptions here and there)
are campaigning like mad dogs against Tesla because, once again, Tesla is
a statement about those shit companies caught sleeping. It is pretty much
the same as in politics, where MSM spreads bull shit.
I can't say if all the allegations against Tesla are true or not but
they seem to be very much the same as attacks on other companies the financial
industry has done to destroy the owners then take over the company for peanuts.
My feeling is this is the same. No I can't prove it but it wouldn't surprise
me at all. Other commenters have quoted material and build prices for Tesla
cars that show they could make a very hefty profit if they can get the volume
up and they seem to be doing this.
Let's look at the attack on Tesla's lack of profits and then compare
to Amazon. Amazon lost money for a long, long time,[are they still losing
money??]. But somehow Tesla is treated different. Now anyone can put up
an online store but not everyone can build a car. It would seem building
a car is much more difficult than an online store.
It appears Amazon has made most of it's recent profits from cloud computing
and still loses money on online sales so their profits could be stripped
at any time by cloud computing competitors. Why is Musk considered a huge
rip of when Amazon lost money for over twenty years and is probably still
not making an online store profit yet Musk has been delivering???
I often wondered if Musk was Jewish. He says he's not. If he's not I
could see a mass Jewish attack on him to strip away his coming internet
service. A internet service that could be used as a distributed information
service with TV NOT controlled by the Jews. This would be reason enough
to attack him. Look at what happened to CNN and Turner. They filled him
full of lies, brought him in then stripped him of assets. Could this be
what is happening to Musk? They want to cut him off before he can get a
world wide satellite system up not controlled by the Jews. I don't know
if this is what's happening but it wouldn't surprise me.
Say, what ever happened to Elon Musk, owner of the USA's Great White Hope to replace the
Russian RD-180, SpaceX? Ever wonder?
Well, he is as umm eccentric as ever, recently firing off an alarming tweet that he is
thinking about taking the company (Tesla, not SpaceX) private at about a third above the
current share value, and that he has secured financing. This triggered a wave of unease, and
an SEC investigation, which might make you curious whether Musk will ever learn that while
his off-the-wall unusual behaviour was once endearing and inspirational, it is now becoming a
major liability and perhaps a barometer of his mental stability.
Here's an interesting discussion of his financial position, which I hope he reads, since
he seems to be completely unaware of the effect of some cataclysmically bad decisions.
It is looking more and more like all he really knows back-to-front is how to spend gobs of
money. People like to let you use their money to do that when they think you might be
brilliant, but their reluctance grows exponentially if you are perceived to be crazy.
The piece ends with an interesting observation; of Tesla's Board of Directors, nobody is a
car, manufacturing, sales or transportation expert.
The car manufacturing industry didn't arrive at where it is now – with bumps, mistakes,
casualties and even flat-out embarrassments like the Ford Edsel along the way – without
developing a whole culture of design, testing, manufacturing processes, test-marketing,
distribution networks and marketing. Elon Musk's problem is that he is completely ignorant of
the history of car-making – and in effect of manufacturing generally since much
manufacturing over the last 100 years has centred around car-making.
Musk could have consulted with or hired people from Ford or GM, in particular hiring those
employees who had ideas about managing those companies or creating new designs and design
concepts that had been knocked back by senior execs there because those ideas threatened
their (the senior guys, that is) power or level of control they had, but were still viable
financially. He should have done something similar to what a former Wall Street hedge fund
manager did, when he came to Australia and discovered that Mexican food restaurants here were
the pits: he set up a restaurant in Newtown called Guzman y Gomez, hired Mexican chefs to
teach local people how to cook Mexican food, and then he hired administrators and managers
from McDonald's, and investors in that company, to help set up the franchise restaurants in
other parts of Sydney.
The interesting thing now is that GYG has franchise restaurants in Singapore and Japan and
is looking at opening a franchise in Chicago. All this has been done without spending huge
amounts of money on marketing (which is what McDonald's used to do) and using a strategy of
opening stores in specific places (mostly areas that tourists, backpackers and students
frequent) and cooking as close to authentic Mexican food as is possible in Australia, given
that most ingredients aren't available here and Australians tend to prefer milder foods.
The problem with Musk and Tesla is too much ambition. The current fiasco has no connection to
the previous mode of operation: produce expensive vehicles like Model S. For some reason Musk
assumed he could transition to volume manufacturing of cheap(er) sedans without any long term
investment. That is why they are building defect ridden crap (punctured batteries, bumpers
that fall off 30 minutes after you pick up your car) under a tent in 3rd world unsanitary
conditions.
I guess Musk must be suffering the cliche megalomania disease. All that power went to his
head and he can't think straight. An emperor with no clothes.
I think at least a little of Musk's problem is that he borrows enormous amounts of money
using businesses which are not moneymakers as collateral. I like the Tesla; it seems like a
great car, and some people are very keen on it – it also puts the lie to the notion
that a car cannot be electric and also be sporty and fast. But Tesla is not profitable,
because Musk keeps borrowing more money and plowing it into new ideas.
But there is probably a lot of the crazy-emperor complex in there as well, and for that
you could hardly blame Musk. The American media feted him as some sort of incredible genius
and greeted everything that came from his mouth as a pearl of wisdom that the common man is
ill-suited to understand. Friends might have reined him in earlier, but he either has none or
does not listen to those he has.
I like the Tesla S too. But the Tesla 3 is a catastrophic failure by comparison. This
indicates a company going off the rails. As for endless borrowing and red ink status, that is
not all that bad. AMD had this pattern for most of its history. But it serves a vital role as
Intel's main competitor and seems to be doing well these days. Musk's Tesla could have had
this debt financing model as long as it produced a viable product. With the Tesla 3 it has
destroyed itself since any reputation for quality it had has flown out the window and Tesla
cannot even deliver the necessary volumes of the Model 3.
The shift will be to hybrids - not fully-electric. I don't know of ANY country that has
the infrastructure, let alone the electrical production capacity, to cover the needs of
all-electric vehicles.
Fossil fuelled vehicles will be with us for a LONG time to come.
Somehow the Saudis don't strike me as people who buy a.non gasoline car manufacturer
invested in a solar city failure for a pumped up price and ever postponed profits and barely
met production promises with faulty cars factory gated.
In an
email sent later to Tesla employees , Musk wrote, "a final decision has not yet been made,
but the reason for doing this is all about creating the environment for Tesla to operate
best."
He also said, "If the process ends the way I expect it will, a private Tesla would
ultimately be an enormous opportunity for all of us."
Sonnenfeld, senior associate dean at the Yale School of Management and a CNBC contributor,
said Tesla has operational problems and has lost 50 key staffers.
1. There is no funding This is the simplest Occam's Razor explanation. There simply is no
funding. Musk feels confident he can get financing and has had conversations with
individuals and funds It's possible Musk has had conversations with third parties about
financing a transaction and feels comfortable he could round up cash. A full buyout would cost
about $72 billion at $420 a share, though Musk, himself, owns 22 percent of the company and
suggested he would allow existing shareholders to maintain ownership, which would lower the
cost.
With Elon Musk refusing to name any of the parties from whom he has allegedly "secured funding" after launching a huge short squeeze
in Tesla yesterday with his now infamous Tesla "going private" series of tweets, it was only a matter of time before the regulators
- who have so far stubbornly ignored Tesla - started asking questions.
According to
the WSJ , that time is now, because the SEC has inquired with Tesla about Elon Musk's announcement that he may take the company
private " and whether his claim was factual ", or in other words, whether Musk lied when he said he had secured financing.
The regulator also asked why the disclosure which kept people glued to twitter for hours was made on the social network rather
than in a regulatory filing, and whether the firm believes the announcement complies with investor-protection rules.
According to the WSJ, the SEC inquiries - which originated from its San Francisco office so it will be relatively easy to visit
the Fremont office - suggest Tesla could come under an enforcement investigation if regulators develop evidence that Musk's tweet
was misleading or false.
"Frankly, the bigger issue is going to be whether the information is correct or not," said Ira Matetsky, a partner at Ganfer
& Shore in New York, who outlined questions the SEC might ask. "When Musk tweeted this, was he saying this was something that
was definitely going to happen? Something that might happen? How would a reasonable investor interpret that and was it consistent
with the facts as they existed at the time?" -
BBG
And while it is mostly semantics, so far it remains unclear if the SEC had opened a formal enforcement investigation based on
the answers it received from the company.
"To put that out unless he absolutely has financing secured and is ready to make the bid that could be market manipulation," Keith
Higgins, a Ropes & Gray partner who formerly led the SEC's corporation finance unit, told
Bloomberg . "He could be in big trouble if that turns out not to have been true."
The biggest risk for Musk is if regulators find that he made a statement only intending to goose his company's share price, or
as he likes to put it, "crush the shorts." Under US securities law, companies and corporate officers can (and will) be held liable
for making misstatements or omitting information that shareholders need to make informed investment decisions.
In his email to employees on Tuesday, instead of detailing the circumstances around the "pre-commited" going private deal, Musk
blamed short sellers and other pressures public markets put on companies as factors in announcing he wanted to take the company private.
However, that's not enough.
As
we noted earlier , one potential problem is that merely the intent of a "going private" transaction, triggers rule 13E-3, which
requires the company to file a Schedule
13E-3 with the SEC as well as furnish the required disclosures to the company's shareholders. Note: the rule is triggered in
either case, even if the intent to go private is ultimately unsuccessful.
13E-3 or no, the SEC will demand to know just what is going on, what the Board knew and when - recall it stated today that it
was made aware of Elon's plans last week and yet there was no mention of this in the 10-Q's "Recent Developments" section - and if
Musk was even sober and rational when he tweeted what he did.
Meanwhile, Tom Farley, the former President of the NYSE, had some advice for the SEC:
Dear @SEC_News, this is an easy one: ask TSLA to show you the agreement(s) signed by their funding source(s) by 5pm EST that
demonstrates the funding is "secured" and "certain." If there is no such agreement, require a statement by 5:30pm. Inspire market
confidence.
And while Musk has historically been extremely cavalier with his tweeting, this time it could cost: if found guilty of stock fraud,
he would surely be on the hook for billions as the lawsuits start piling in, with the worst case scenario giving Musk an unlimited
amount of time to tweet to his heart's content... from prison.
The stock dropped back under $370 on the news, and is rapidly approaching the $359.8676 conversion price of the $920 million of
convertible bond due March 2019, which some have speculated is the entire reason behind the "going private" spectacle.
Vote up! 3 Vote down! 1
In the beginning Tesla looked like a good business venture because of limited oil reserves in the world and the promise of
increasing oil prices.
The prospects for vast profits were very promising for the people who control US fiances, and Musk an insider bought a controlling
interest of the company.
Eight years ago Musk brought the company public to raise funds developing its then upcoming Model S electric car. However,
the company was also at the time awash in red ink. It had lost $290.2 million since its 2003 founding, and its first-quarter loss
in 2010 was $29.5 million, but a $465 million U.S. Department of Energy loan helped the company gain some momentum.
Musk's companies, Tesla Motors Inc., SolarCity Corp. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp., known as SpaceX, together have
benefited from an estimated $4.9 billion in government support. The figure underscores a common theme running through his emerging
empire: a public-private financing model underpinning long-shot start-ups.
It is government money being used and not exclusive private money for such risks, but what is the difference when the same
people control US finances, the Fed, and the government?
A year before Musk announced his recent intention to take Tesla Motors private all things seemed to go wrong for the company,
like thousands of Model 3s electric cars dormant in various parking lots as if they are not selling (as if they have really tried),
production delays, and numerous unprecedented numbers of Tesla autos catching fire with occupants dying - very dramatic. The stocks
stocks begin to fall and then Musk just recently announces his plans to go private.
What promise does Musk really see in his various models? Has this very connected man or the people behind him made efforts
to screw SH's by depressing share value?
He doesn't have close to the estimated 72 billion he would need to do it. Yeah, yeah, take
away his 20% and its still not even close. Estimates put his net worth in *just* the 20
billion range.
We'll see him in leg irons when Trump gets beat by Biden. Never.
U.S. insider trading prohibitions are based on English and American common law
prohibitions against fraud. In 1909, well before the Securities Exchange Act was passed, the
United States Supreme Court ruled that a corporate director who bought that company's stock
when he knew the stock's price was about to increase committed fraud by buying but not
disclosing his inside information.
Section 16(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 prohibits short-swing profits (from
any purchases and sales within any six-month period) made by corporate directors, officers,
or stockholders owning more than 10% of a firm's shares. Under Section 10(b) of the 1934 Act,
SEC Rule 10b-5, prohibits fraud related to securities trading.
Tesla, which has posted profit only in two quarters since becoming a public company eight
years ago, broke another record for quarterly net loss on Wednesday, smashing the previous
record of $709.6 million set in the
first quarter.
While the new milestone is only slightly higher than the previous one, the contrast is more
drastic in comparison to the same period last year. In 2017, the innovative tech company
reported a net loss of (only) $336 million in the second quarter.
While Tesla so far has been mostly losing money at a growing pace , Musk reiterated on
Wednesday he expects the company to become profitable as soon as the next quarter after it
boosts production of its Model 3 vehicle, envisioned for mass marketing.
After the results were posted, Tesla issued a statement saying that it plans to churn out
from 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles in the third quarter, an ambitious goal, given its recent
frantic scramble to increase output to 5,000 cars a week. While Tesla hit the long-delayed
target in June, the process put additional strain on the company, forcing it to spend millions
to ramp up production.
While the electric car maker has failed to generate profit for yet another quarter, the
trend has not apparently discouraged the market, with Tesla stock gaining 11 percent and
trading at $334.18 per share after the statement was released.
Positive signs that might have contributed to the optimism among investors is that the
company's cash burn slowed down, from $745.3 million in the first quarter to $739.5 million, in
the second one.
Musk previously dismissed speculations that his company would need to raise money to stay
afloat, promising back in April that it would be profitable in the third and fourth
quarters.
I'm a fan of Elon Musk because he does some incredibly cool things. However, half the time I
think he just likes to run with scissors because his life must not be interesting enough. The
author of Brotopia identified him as having gone to one of the now infamous Silicon
Valley sex parties -- in costume, no less -- and his excuse was that he didn't see the blatant
sex at the sex party.
Then there was the flame thrower thing. His company (Tesla) is in the most flammable state
in the union but he apparently decided it would be a fun idea to sell flame throwers.
Then there was the Tesla autopilot fiasco
. Even Consumer Reports
argued that when people that see the term "autopilot," they think they can turn the feature
on and then do whatever they want, without having to drive the car.
There is an old story about a guy who rented a motorhome and asked about cruise control, and
the rental rep told him it was like autopilot. He later drove off, set cruise control, and went
to the back of the motorhome to make coffee. It didn't end well for him or the motorhome. That
incident alone suggests that the one thing you never should call even advanced cruise control
(which is what the Tesla currently has) is "autopilot." In my opinion, Musk should be held
accountable for every death and injury to folks who treated Tesla Autopilot like it was
autopilot.
Then there was Musk's now famous conversation with financial analysts on a conference call.
They asked legitimate questions, and he went off the rails on them, causing a sharp drop in
Tesla valuation. That's just stupid.
Most recently, he flew a small submersible to the location where 12 Thai soccer players were
trapped in a cave. It did look like a poorly-thought-through PR stunt, and the lead diver, who
clearly was focused on getting the kids out, didn't want to mess with an untested piece of
tech. Not that it was a bad idea, but you'd consider the device a proof of concept -- not
something you'd risk a child's life on unless you had no other choice. That
wasn't the case .
Apparently, Musk didn't like being told no. When he pushed, the diver apparently told Musk
he could put the sub in an uncomfortable place in Musk's body. Musk's response was to go on
social media and accuse the diver of being a pedophile. That is not a term that is
interchangeable with "jerk." It has consequences, and social media is an international
platform. Were I Unsworth, the diver Musk attacked, I would sue Musk in France, where they are
really aggressive when it comes to penalizing false claims like this.
Musk manages on the ragged edge, which means that from a financial standpoint, his companies
are mostly one mistake away from going under. Tesla, in particular, doesn't look like it will
survive the decade. That suggests that rather than creating all of this drama, maybe focusing
on the basics of running the firms would be in Musk's and his companies' best interests.
"... " The spokesperson also added depending on the vehicle's configuration , Model 3 wait times are currently 1 to 3 months", but spokeshuman did not explain why no base models will ever be produced. ..."
"... " Tesla ditched reservations and opened up Model 3 sales to anyone for a $2,500 deposit." that's because reservations are refundable....as long as the cash holds out, sales deposits apparently not. ..."
Why Are "Thousands" of Teslas Sitting In a Field in California?
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 07/19/2018 - 16:14 129 SHARES
"There's so much inventory here, it's crazy."
When Tesla finally met its Model 3 production run rate target, astute investors and analysts
pointed out the use of the word "factory gated" in the company's press release: "Not only did
we factory gate 5000 Model 3's , but we also achieved the S & X production target for a
combined 7000 vehicle week!" Musk wrote in an email to his staff that week.
It was a term that Tesla hadn't used before.
Now, thanks to a couple of sleuths on Twitter, we may have just found out what the term
means. Twitter Tesla sleuth @ISpyTSLA, with the help of others, has been trying to figure out
exactly where all these vehicles are winding up. @ISpyTSLA found that it appears that
"thousands" of vehicles are being stored "in a field" 500 E Louise Ave, Lathrop, CA 95330.
Perhaps as a place to temporarily dump cars that should be 'off the books' or as some said,'
"There's so much inventory here, it's crazy."
The accompanying video appears to show "thousands" of Tesla vehicles just rusting in the
open air under the scorching California sun.
Additional video shows the Twitter users initial approach to the property, which appears to
have a gate with a warning sign that the premises are being video monitored.
The Twitter user notes that trucks seem to be bringing cars in, but not out. Follow up
Tweets noted that "there's no real
activity in the inventory lot" before noting that "some cars are coming out".
Meanwhile, as another Twitter user noted, another just as vast pile of Model 3s can be found
near the Burbank Hollywood Airport.
The reaction from Twitter was underwhelming.
Great News Lemmings! All of our 5K Burst week cars are sitting in a scrap heap. This is
GREAT news, we are going to make submarines out of them. Elon $TSLA
But why stash the cars there? Is it to optimize net working capital and give investors - and
auditors - the impression of more liquidity than is actually available?
Surely this will, or should, be one of the "boring" questions asked on the company's
conference, if PricewaterhouseCoopers doesn't ask first.
Meanwhile, Tesla already had to fend off a downgrade from Needham this morning, who warned
that Model 3 refunds were moving faster than deposits, something we documented
here over a month ago .
"Based on our checks, refunds are outpacing deposits as cancellations accelerate," wrote
analyst Rajvindra Gill in the note Thursday. "The reasons are varied: extended wait times,
the expiration of the $7,500 credit, and unavailability of the $35k base model."
"In August '17, TSLA cited a refund rate of 12%. Almost a year later, we believe it has
doubled and outpaced deposits. Model 3 wait times are currently 4-12 months and with base
model not available until mid-2019, consumers could wait until 2020," Gill added.
This morning Tesla refuted this, however, with the discovery of this new lot Tesla's PR
spin job for today may only be getting started.
There probably aren't any batteries in them. These cars are in various states of technical
completeness. Processes that were too time-consuming and parts that were not readily
available were skipped in order to complete their ridiculous publicity stunt. No one likely
knows the missing bits for any given car so they are junk. This is what happens when you are
able to do what you're doing because of lots of "other-people's money". 4th turning bitchez,
gross waste and abuse. All the big manufacturers are doing it, why shouldn't Tesla?
Elon Musk manufactures here in the USA. Most American car manufacturers, other than Ford, took bigly bailout money from American
taxpayers and then set up shop in racially homogenous, cheap-labor countries in China &
Latin America. Ford went straight to Mexico, bypassing the bailout cash.
"Profitable" American car manufacturers still do some production in the USA, mostly hiring
groups of young temps. They pay the youthful, blue-collar temp workers more than most
white-collar temp jobs around here offer.
About 5 years ago, a local car manufacturer was paying temps $17 per hour, as opposed to
the typical $10 per hour offered to white-collar non-college-grad office workers or $12 per
hour for white-collar college-grad office workers. I recently saw an article, suggesting that
the same American car manufacturer is now paying young temps even more, quite a bit more.
The article was adorned with a photo of an aging union worker, but no explanation was
provided about how this system really works, with the young temps hired to do the bulk of the
physically demanding labor. Due to senority, a small group of old union workers avoid that
work, doing the cushier tasks.
The liberal agenda pusher who wrote the article, sticking a photo on it with an especially
aged union worker, was probably promoting the faulty idea that America needs more immigration
to fill those jobs due to an aging population, when, in fact, the young Millennial generation
is BIGGER than the aging Boomer generation.
Furthermore, American citizens often get on lists to fill those high-paying temp jobs in
car manufacturing. Applicants often have six-month waiting periods due to the massive number
of job seekers, chasing those rare, high-paying TEMPORARY jobs.
Much like state jobs, US citizens must wait to get a good-paying temp job with those car
manufacturers, and if the person who wrote the article had talked to temps who actually
worked those jobs, s/he would know it. But it might not matter; advocates of mass-scale
immigration gonna advocate.
Tne Media helped establish Musk as a cult figure. Reality is catching up with a false god, that is what's happening. At what point will Musk throw a kool aid party for MuskCar employees under the tent.
No its not what other car manufacturers do if they have so many orders to fill? only car
manufacturers forward producing and estimating demand need store them but most adjust
manufacturing levels to avoid it now as its expensive to store, and even non registered
vehicles decline in value and are subject to damage.
Tesla with back orders should have no need at all to store cars, with such a professed
backlog, so the fact they have is highly suspicious.
It might suggest to some analysts that the vehicles are not completed not safe or
something else is awry.
It doesn't even look like "thousands" of cars to me. A quick drone flyover would clear
this question up. And sure, this is what all car manufacturers do. Transshipment, rework, whatever. I mean,
what else would you do? Put a tent over them? Everything about Tesla is stupid, and I'm enjoying their failure. But stories like this
give credence to Musk's paranoid assertions that the world is out to destroy him.
Back in the old days of software we called it 'shipping bricks'. The new version of the
software wasn't ready, but we booked orders, so we slapped labels on blank disks, but em in
boxes with manuals and sent em out. Customer called a few days later when the software was
ready, and we said, 'oh sorry, must have gotten a defective one, we are fed exing a new disk
in the mail.
These may look like Teslas, but they didn't pass tests or are unsellable for some reason,
so they count them as 'gated inventory' Same thing
The increase in TSLA market cap more than covered the few thousand "cars" Tesla needs to
hide that will never actually be sold, well until Elon called a hero a pedophile.
This is how the great publicly traded con economy works. You aren't producing product to
sell, you are only manufacturing a story to sell stock. Since stock based compensation makes
you a billionaire even if your company loses billions of dollars, what incentive is there to
turn a profit?
You end up with more scams than productive corporations. If there was no stock market,
Walmart would exist, but Amazon would not. Walmart is profitable in the billions of dollars,
Amazon is not. Bezos could not be worth $150billion without the scam of publicly traded
shares because it would take a few thousand years to pay out $150billion to Bezos from
Amazon's profit.
Meanwhile Walmart could pay a few executives $1 billion per year and have plenty of profit
left. Why is one company worth $250 billion, less than half revenue and the other near $850
billion with less than $200 billion in revenue?
Not only Tesla is "storing" cars. All the majors appear to be doing the same. I live near
Flint MI and you would NOT BELIEVE the number of lot's, fields, and empty spaces in the area
that are FULL of late model vehicles. I suspect most are lease returns that are being kept
out of the market to keep prices elevated. I have a 21 year old pick up truck. It is paid
for. I would buy a newer truck but they are way too expensive. We have a newer SUV, also paid
for. When the "big 3" decide to sell some of those lease returns at a reasonable price I MAY
look at buying one. I WILL NOT BUY ONE for the prices they want. I just purchased a nice home
for less than $40K so why would I buy a depreciating asset for the same amount?
Tesla delayed some deliveries until July, probably so that they could reach 200K cars sold
this quarter and have the $7500 tax credit until Q4. But now that they've sold 200K, it makes
no sense to hang onto them unless they don't have a buyer. Maybe that's why they opened the
Model 3 builder site to everyone? Could it really be that they've run through all of the
Model 3 preorders because most people who signed up to buy a $35K car aren't interested in
paying $49K minimum as it is now?
This is a reasonable interpretation. Best case for Musk. In islolation (lol) it doesn't
seem fatal.
But even so, he has higher inventory control costs. His labor costs have proven higher
too. Down the line these cars have no dealer network to service or repair them, and to
provide it is [would cost] billions.
Yea and the Tesla tards are all gaga over the 30% profit margin the 3 will bring as
indicated by those that tear down and analyze the vehicle. We're all gonna be rich when Tesla
stock hits 10,000 by the end of the year. Booya. What you delusional Musk lovers should do is
learn the difference between GROSS PROFIT, which is that touted 30%, and NET PROFIT. Gross
profit only includes the direct costs to produce the car, materials and labor, but does not
include selling, general, and administrative which will consume that 30% "profit" and then
some. General expenses such as warranty work, electricity, paying engineers and secretaries
and other non direct manufacturing personnel such as material handlers and plant cleanup and
trash disposal and maintenance people etc, "free charging", R&D, interest on the debt,
sales offices, etc etc. In the past your boy could brag about the cash pile on hand most of
which was accumulated for PR purposes by delaying payment to suppliers.
Not since "Who Killed the Electric Car" have so many with axes to grind began fueling this
bazaar anti-Tesla barrage. Musk is part of "those who do" while "those that can't" SHIT ALL
OVER EVERYBODY who can.
Behind this is a hedge fund with a heavy short position, oil industry think tanks, and
just plain shits parading on some fucking adolescent thing called "Twitter".
Have you dumb asses looked at the quantities of warehoused traditional cars by all other
manufacturers? Youtube it if you don't believe. As to you haters and inflammatory dickheads,
it's time to stop whacking it and eat the fucking cracker.
You really are delusional. "Who Killed the Electric Car' is nothing but a hit piece on GM.
GM killed their own electric not the electric industry like idiots want to believe. Their car
although state of the art at the time had little range with the old tech batteries that were
available at the time and would have been extremely expensive to build as it had no parts in
common with other vehicles in their line. Plus at the time there was absolutely no public
demand for electrics. The current flurry of electrics coming on the market is not because of
Tesla, as you cult members want to believe, but from the hugely funded enviros pushing for
the elimination of all ICE cars. In Germany and a few other countries they have passed or are
in the process of legislating no new ICE cars to be sold by a certain date, anywhere from
2025 to 2030 depending on country, and all ICE cars off the road by 2050 or other dates
depending on country.
Recently there was a complete fiction hit piece that oil companies outspend enviros by 10
to 1 on lobbying. Enviro organizations such as Sierra Club, World Wildlife Fund, Greenpeace,
Tom Steyer and other billionaires, and other enviro groups spend most of their budgets, which
is in the billions, on lobbying. Under Obama his EPA pursued a "sue and settle" policy to
encourage enviro groups to sue the EPA which would settle quickly as a way to get funds into
the enviros pockets. Not to mention the hundreds of billions given to enviros by governments
around the world. The Obama EPA refused to release to Congress the science on which their
rulings were made because most of that "science" was bullshit written by enviro activists.
The EPA advisors were all enviro activists. When Trump put Pruitt in charge of the EPA you
clowns claimed he was anti science when he shit canned the activist old boy network and set
up debates from all sides. Under Pruitt they took money destined for activists and used it
clean up real pollution in Superfund sites which the Obama EPA ignored.
The other manufacturers can afford to warehouse cars as they make real profits. They also
have to buy "pollution permits" to sell their cars in Commiefornia, which ends up in Tesla's
pockets even though they pollute worse the ICE though not directly. As it is your boy is no
different than the other manufacturers yet, except for ZH and other sites willing to print
the truth, the general media, especially tech sites, can't get enough of licking Musk's balls
and stroking his ego by wrongly calling him a genius who is going to change the world. Every
single market your boy is in from Powerwalls to solar panels to cars there is experienced and
well funded competition but yet the delusional refuse to believe it. His factory of the
future, which was going to change the way cars are built, was a huge failure as in many
procedures humans are better than robots which is why other car companies still employ
humans. Your boy who was going to change the way cars are sold is opening dealerships. Plus
Tesla is opening large numbers of repair shops contrary to the belief of many Tesla fanbois
that Tesla's run forever without any repairs.
Boy did I scratch off your scab! Feeling accused? BTW cut back on "enviro-whatever" ok,
'cus it really sounds stupid. Your writing is dense, machine like, staid, crystalized, like a
walking dead pedantic. Your reality is your own, there in your hermit crab shell, I wish you
a constant stream of nutritional plankton, return to your place on the coral wreath.
Notice you came back with nothing but name calling and a writing style critique. Another
content free liberal, once you scratch one layer deep past the talking points.
Production does not always mean demand. In today's' ideology, production pays the rent, as
long as the feds keep bailing you out. For years there have been photos of new car
graveyards. It gives the charts something good to say.
"We produced 7,000 cars this week" gives the illusion of high demand for product, while not
indicating who the buyers are. Part of the Sales illusion.
1 Problem. Tesla Vehicles Are Made From Aluminum and Aluminum Alloys. So They Do Not Rust
! This Tells Me Someone Didn't Do The Proper Research or Proof Reading .
Yeah, well if you actually DO proper research you'll find that only iron and steel rust.
Aluminum corrodes, forms a thin layer of oxidized aluminum over its surface which does
protect further surface corrosion. However, in a salt environment, even a teeny little bit of
salt and water, like say salt found in desert areas, will cause severe corrosion where the
aluminum turns to dust. If it rains in Lathrop followed by lots of wind, any and all
unprotected aluminum WILL turn to dust and that right quick if left that way. Ask any Navy or
Marine Corps pilot or any Navy or Marine Corps aircraft maintenance person whose served at
sea and flew or worked on any number of aircraft. So thanks for the "they do not rust"
warning so that "someone" could do Proper Research or Proof Reading. Good tip.
" The spokesperson also added depending on the vehicle's configuration , Model 3 wait
times are currently 1 to 3 months", but spokeshuman did not explain why no base models will
ever be produced.
" Tesla ditched reservations and opened up Model 3 sales to anyone for a $2,500 deposit."
that's because reservations are refundable....as long as the cash holds out, sales deposits
apparently not.
I left our М3 parked in our driveway at the Jersey
Shore for the last 48 hours. Checked the app and had
only 62 miles of range! When I parked it Friday
afternoon it had about 180. What am I doing wrong!
It's been super hot here. Is this usual? Is there a
setting I need to look at?
It seems that widespread suspicions that Tesla CEO Elon Musk resorted to cutting corners in
his pursuit of ramping up Model 3 production to meet his lofty production targets may be
valid.
Martin Tripp - the former Tesla engineer who on
June 20 was sued by Tesla for trying to "sabotage" the company - is alleging several
egregious safety violations that, if true, could destroy what remains of Musk's tattered
credibility.
In an email sent by Meissner Associates, a law firm which has represented whistleblowers to
the SEC and which was retained by the whistleblower, Tripp alleged that Tesla made
misstatements to investors about placing batteries with holes punctured in them into vehicles
to help pad out its Model 3 production numbers in pursuit of Musk's goal of producing 5,000
Model 3s a week.
He also alleged that Tesla placed battery cells too close together and didn't properly
secure them, raising the risk of future combustion, and that the company "systematically"
reused parts that had been deemed to be scrap or waste.
Tripp's claims remind us of some inconsistencies
highlighted by Vertical Group's Gordon Johnson , who pointed out that some of the
supposedly "finished" cars had been labeled "factory gated", meaning they still required
additional testing and quality inspections.
So far Tesla shares appear unaffected by the report.
I think we are seeing more and more the calling card of a sociopath / psychopath. Not
surprising to us here, but to the wider population. Again, as with several other examples -
simple honesty would have been smarter, yet the guy lies through his teeth. Hilary Clinton
syndrome. A pathological need to lie even when it will work out badly for you.
They certainly ger erratic and lash out when they get challenged. As the heat gets turned
up, especially when questioning their intelligence, the LOCO dial gets cranked.
Nothing new here. All great innovators have experienced the negative and disparaging
onslaught from the unwashed illiterate rabble who lash out in jealous fury accompanied by a
liberal dose of envy at those people who lead rather than grovel in the shit dropped by the
herd.
That's not innovation- it's marketing. A Nissan Leaf does the same thing for $35K but some
soulless Silicon Valley millionaire needs to buy a Tesla to feel validated. It's just a bunch
of batteries wired together to power an electric motor- it was done basically the same way
140 years ago.
Elon is blasting off a rocket next week and even offered a sub to the Thai Government to
assist with the rescue of those youngsters from that flooded cave.
Was your submarine in the shop?
I just think people are piling on a bit too heavy on the guy.
Interesting that you call him a visionary. Firstly as has been noted above that electric
cars were among some of the very first automobiles built. So nothing new there.
The United States government through the DOE were conducting research during Bush 43's
tenure in the area of fuel cells and fuel cell powered automobiles. Pretty visionary stuff
that. Yeah spare me the issues surrounding fuel cells, I know them all. However as soon as
Obama turned up guess who was first in line to see to it that the US Government subsidized
battery powered autos and stopped all work on fuel cell powered vehicles. Why that would be
Musk; visionary, savior of the planet, greenie all the way. Why then lobby Barry and his ilk
to kill off fuel cells. Musk wanted no part in a competitive alternative, some might argue a
better one.
By the way if you want an example of Musk's commitment to the environment take a look at
the Fremont factory via any of the mapping applications. It's very apparent that Telsa is
certainly only committed to the betterment of the climate through words and not deeds. No
recycling at that plant.
Whistle blowers - whom I refer to as honest, diligent employees - are the only real
protection consumers and investors have to defend themselves from a congress that caters to
corporations and banks. We can support them this fall by firing every complicit house member
and 1/3 of the senate. In January, we could have a house of representatives working for us.
In two years, we could have a majority of the senate truly representing the people of our
nation.
While Elon has various character defects that make him a grating personality, he has still
managed to create the first new car company to be seen in many decades. I am no fan, but it
is still impressive.
we stress to our readers that just because TSLA
makes
a Model 3 car
–
with competition coming and buyers tired of "waiting"
– does not mean
demand
for that car exists.
I've been thinking / saying this for
months.
5000 a week is 250,000 units a year. There are only 6 models in North America
that sell >/= 250K units a year. They may be able to produce 5,000 units a week,
but they can't SELL 5,000 units a week. Pull it. This charade is getting really
old.
They will have to start a dealer network to park all those cars somewhere.
Then package all the dealer debt into some exotic debt instrument and sell it
to the Muppets as AAA asset-backed paper with above market yield!
Later the
Fed will have t buy that shit back to hide the crimes and stupidity of
government actions and "save the system".
Even with some churn in the list T is sustaining over 400,000 confirmed orders
on the books. At 5000 per week that is 80 weeks work to get to the last one.
The churn in orders is likely due to people maxing their wait time
expectations, but as the waiting list diminishes wait time will reduce and
more folk will decide to buy.
Try driving an electric car - you will never want a FF car again. Then it
becomes a case of which EV to get. If one has a choice and the money then a
Tesla is the best. If money-constrained then there are other choices. I
think T will be around for a while to satisfy the top end of the market.
Nissan Leaf, eGolf etc will work better for others but the Big T will stay
on top, IMHO.
The chief engineer is gone, and he was doing production
engineering. That is, the assembly line. Elon shoved him aside to do this hail
mary pass - assembling them by hand in a tent.
So now he's gone, and there are actually several top positions vacant.
Fortunately, one of them is in accounting so for a while here Musk can use some
not-so-GAAP ledgering.
Seeing the top production engineer leave during a period of rapid production
engineering overhaul... what could go wrong?
Musk cavalier attitude has resulted in Tesla becoming one of the world's
most-shorted stocks. Unfortunately, for the shorts, shares are up almost 30% in
the past month mainly as a result of Musk's antics and toying with those of
little faith. More about this in the article below.
This is way too optimistic. First of all in comparison with a
good hybrid like Camry hybrid Tesla is not that great. With 50 miles per gallon
you need 6 gallons for 300 miles. So at $32 you break even with Tesla (which
costs two time more) and at $3 you lose one dollar per gallon. You need to burn
30K gallons to break even with Tesla. That's 150K miles.
I have been a zero hedge reader for 9 years. I have at times been a fierce critic
of Elon Musk (especially with Solar City)
I have owned a Model 3 for 3 months..
you can ask me any question if you want... but my perspective:
- Handling is amazing. The car handles better than a BMW 3 series. Consumer
Reports compared it to a Porsche Boxter.
- Power is amazing. 0 to 60 time is 5.1 seconds. That is comparable to a BMW
340I
- Operaring cost are amazing. The cost to add 300 miles of range where I live
in SoCal (where electricity is expensive) is $10-$12 ($0.12 per kWh at night).
Again.. how much would it cost to drive 300 miles on a comparable gasoline car?
- there is pretty much no maintenance schedule (battery fluid every 60k mike
and brake fluid every 30k miles)
- Autopilot is amazing. I drive from LA to SD pretty much 100 percent on
autopilot. Is it self driving? No. Do you need to pay attention? Yes. Does it do
a damn good job at centering the car on its lane? It really does you would be
surprised. Are there limitations with it? Yes there are.. stationary objects are
one example. Are stationary objects a major problem when you use autopilot as
designed (on the freeway)? usually not.. and by keeping good following distances
and paying attention that is not a problem. All the instances of accidents
published in the media have been by people who were not paying attention at all.
I paid $57.5k + TTL for that. I intentionally left out tax incentives because
those will be phased out. Ask yourself.. is it really more expensive than a
comparable 3 series when you take into account the above? I don't think so.
That is my major criticism with tesla bears. You can't compare a model 3 to.
$18k focus. Not saying that everything that Elon musk does is good. Using tesla
as a piggy bank to Bail out Solarcity and SpaceX.. I certainly do not agree with
that.
Now let's talk about reliability. Well so far I have run into 2 issues:
electronics under the seat exposed l, and spontaneous crack on the pano roof
(know defects in earlier model), both issues were promptly resolved. It's too
early to tell but for now it's better than my Scion FRS.
A Tesla vehicle caught fire, apparently "out of the blue," while sitting in California
traffic. Video of the incident has been shared by US actress Mary McCormack whose husband was
in the electric car at the time. McCormack said her husband was in traffic on Santa Monica
Boulevard when the vehicle suddenly caught fire. There was "no accident" and the blaze
came completely "out of the blue," she said.
@Tesla This
is what happened to my husband and his car today. No accident,out of the blue, in traffic
on Santa Monica Blvd. Thank you to the kind couple who flagged him down and told him to
pull over. And thank god my three little girls weren't in the car with him pic.twitter.com/O4tPs5ftVo
Passersby flagged down the driver who then got out of the vehicle. Video recorded at the
scene shows flames shooting from underneath the parked car.
The electric car did not have an autopilot feature and was a "normal Tesla,"according to McCormack.
Sheriff's Lt. William Nash in West Hollywood
said that deputies saw smoke coming from the electric vehicle and then fire. Firefighters
were called to extinguish the flames. Nash said the log entry cited the possibility of a faulty
battery, however, McCormack said on Twitter that they hadn't yet received an explanation for
the sudden blaze.
Tesla called the incident "an extraordinarily unusual occurrence" and said it was
investigating the matter.
The company is facing intense scrutiny after several incidents involving its vehicles. Last
month, a Tesla burst into flames after a fatal crash in Switzerland. In the US, investigations
were launched after a Model S crashed into a concrete wall and caught fire in Florida, killing
two teenagers. Another Model S, with an autopilot feature, crashed into the back of a firetruck
in South Jordan, Utah.
Tesla founder Elon Musk has criticized media
coverage of crashes involving his vehicles and claims the cars are at least 10 times less
likely than a gas car to catch fire, citing data from the National Fire Protection Association
and US Federal Highway Administration.
On a different note, Tesla is going to zero. The company has a number of severe problems:
• Tesla is burning through one billion per quarter and is likely to run out of cash
this year
• It is the only company of its size (in the market) offering high yield debt and stock
offerings to accredited investors (which do not require SEC disclosure)
• Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly refused to meet with Elon Musk when he was
in Saudi Arabia
• Elon Musk has violated federal securities, labor, and OSHA laws
• Musk and many other current and former executives have signed false documents and thus
committed perjury
• The Model 3 is a disaster and was panned by Consumer Reports, Car and Driver, and
Edmund's
• The self-dealing merger with Solar City would likely not have been approved by
shareholders without Musk's vaporware demonstration of solar roof tiles that do not exist
(securities fraud)
• Half of Tesla's output is exported, leaving it very vulnerable to trade
retaliation
• Quality problems continue to be severe, and Tesla has now resorted to partnering with
local body shops for post-production fixes
• Extreme shortage of spare parts means Teslas can be out of service for months
• Tesla takes months to refund customer deposits
• Numerous accounting problems, leading to 86 questions from the SEC for the last fiscal
year, compared to zero for Ford Motor
• Tesla "autopilot" units keep crashing
• Highest accident and fatality statistics in its vehicle class (new luxury
vehicles)
• Model S wheels and suspensions keep cracking
• Difficulty of exiting vehicle in the absence of electrical power (no mechanical door
handles) led to children literally being burned alive
• A flood of competition is inbound, including the 600 horsepower Porsche Misson-E going
into production at Zuffenhausen next year
• Tesla's zero emission credits are set to expire, just as other automakers start
harvesting them
Every freely available share is now short–not joking. You can't even short the stock
anymore generally, though puts are of course available.
Musk himself is likely to be personally wiped out as well, as he has borrowed against 40%
of his shares. He'll face a very ugly margin call when the stock starts sliding.
Additionally, he's likely to personally face both civil and criminal liability.
"... proudly tweeted last Friday about an over-the-air software update which improves the Tesla Model 3's crappy braking by 20 feet in a 60 mph stop. ..."
"... If you've ever had a personal computer suddenly freeze as a force-fed Microsoft OS update wipes everything, you know that "What could possibly go wrong" is more than a rhetorical question. ..."
' With their unproven, secretive technology that's fully hackable '
Mad genius Elon Musk -- our new Hawking, now that Hawking's left -- proudly tweeted
last Friday about an over-the-air software update which improves the Tesla Model 3's crappy
braking by 20 feet in a 60 mph stop.
If you've ever had a personal computer suddenly freeze as a force-fed Microsoft OS
update wipes everything, you know that "What could possibly go wrong" is more than a
rhetorical question.
"... Despite receiving all this government money, Musk's company has not shown demonstrable results. Yesterday, Bloomberg released a story under the headline "Tesla Doesn't Burn Fuel, It Burns Cash," detailing how the company spends $6,500 a minute and may run out of money by the end of the year. Just weeks ago, Moody's downgraded Tesla's credit rating due to its seeming inability to meet deadlines. Mr. Musk's estimate of producing 20,000 vehicles in December, for instance, turned into just over 2,400 in the entire fourth quarter. ..."
"... Norm Singleton is the chairman of Campaign for Liberty. ..."
Anyone familiar with the hit sitcom Seinfeld knows that Cosmo Kramer, the
rambunctious, eccentric neighbor of Jerry Seinfeld, had a lot of big ideas. From make-your-own-pizza parlors to
tie dispensers to the
infamous " mansierre
," Kramer was -- in his own mind -- a world-changing revolutionary.
Of course, aside from one notable exception ( the Regis Philbin-approved pop-out coffee table
book ), none of his ideas ever panned out. But lack of achievement is exactly what viewers
expected every week. The whole fun of Kramer was his dream-big mentality and the impracticality
that came with it.
No one on the show was senseless enough to support Kramer in his work. In fact, in one
episode, Leland fired
him even though he did not hold any standing position. Kramer couldn't even keep a job at a bagel store for
longer than a few days. It was his friends' open refrigerators that provided him with the life
support he needed to continue dreaming and inventing.
This comedy sitcom case study is ironically much more sensible than what occurs in real
life. There are plenty of Cosmo Kramers out in the world today with ideas that are even more
ambitious than anything Kramerica Industries could have
formulated. The only difference is that these individuals have armies of lobbyists that can
convince our spendthrift government to finance their ideas, even though they have yet to pass
any free-market smell tests.
Perhaps the most recent example of such a politically astute, Kramer-like figure is Elon
Musk. This larger-than-life media personality plans to do everything from sending men to the
moon and Mars, to creating a 700-miles-per-hour tunnel transportation system, to turbocharging
human brains by implanting computers.
All of these are excellent ideas, to be sure, but ones that bear significant amounts of
risk. Unfortunately, Mr. Musk does not seem willing to bear all the risk himself. His business
model revolves around hiring experts to navigate the waters of the Washington swamp to discover
ways to make the American people pick up the tab.
Take Tesla, for example. The car company was created to bring electric vehicles to the
general public en masse -- a mission that oddly requires over $1
million in lobbying expenditures annually. As a result, the cars are financed by over $280
million in federal tax incentives, including a $7,500 federal tax break, and tens of millions
more in state rebates and development fees.
Despite receiving all this government money, Musk's company has not shown demonstrable
results. Yesterday, Bloomberg released a story under the headline "Tesla Doesn't Burn
Fuel, It Burns Cash," detailing how the company spends $6,500 a minute and may run out of money
by the end of the year. Just weeks ago, Moody's
downgraded Tesla's credit rating due to its seeming inability to meet deadlines. Mr. Musk's
estimate of producing 20,000 vehicles in
December, for instance, turned into just over 2,400 in the entire fourth quarter.
It is no wonder that when these government subsidies die, electric vehicle sales plummet.
Three years ago, sales sunk by
more than 80 percent in the state of Georgia when the $5,000 state tax credit phased out.
Last year, sales declined by
60 percent when its EV tax breaks sharply fell. These empirical case studies do not paint a
positive picture of Tesla's future, especially given that its federal tax break is expected to phase out
sometime this year. Perhaps funding Kramer's big ball of oil in the name of alleviating
the world's spillage problems would have been just as, if not more, fruitful.
SpaceX is no better. Roughly 85 percent of its contracts come directly from the federal
government. The aerospace manufacturer hit a
then-personal record of $2 million in annual lobbying spending not long ago as it continued
its quest to conquer the stars. New York magazine once asked
"Are Elon Musk's Aggressive Lobbyists Bad for Silicon Valley? " but without them the
government-dependent company might not even exist.
SpaceX has already received roughly
$15 billion in subsidy guarantees from Texas, and despite
meeting just one sixth of the hiring goals it promised, it is requesting
$5 million more . Similarly, even though SpaceX has already received over $70 million from
the federal government to develop its BFR, the company would
like more on that front as well.
Meanwhile, just last week, NASA's Office of Inspector General found that SpaceX has raised the cost of some
launches by over 50 percent due to having "a better understanding of the costs involved after
several years of experience with cargo resupply missions." This new development means that the
government's deal -- already diluted by costly rocket failures -- continues to get worse and
worse.
And don't even get me started on SolarCity, Mr. Musk's solar panel company, which has still
not turned an annual profit despite receiving over $490
million in grants from the Treasury Department over the years and the government covering
30 percent of its installation costs.
As a free market capitalist, I am rooting for Mr. Musk to pull it together and succeed. But
I don't want the federal government to waste any more of Americans' hard-earned cash to make it
happen.
We will never know what the well-intentioned Cosmo Kramer could have accomplished had Jerry
and the rest of the gang cut him off from their refrigerators, homes, and other welfare as a
means of forcing him to follow through with his goals. However, we can still explore how taking
away such measures of comfort will affect Elon Musk's motivation and decision-making.
Ironically, it just may be the recipe for success that the ambitious CEO needs.
Norm Singleton is the chairman of Campaign for Liberty.
There are legitimate questions to ask regarding tesla, but SpaceX is a whole other issue.
Pretty much every rocket manufacturer gets massive government subsidies. SpaceX is not the
first and probably not the last. but their increase in price is still cost competitive
compared to other manufacturers.
Economic analysis often uses the term ceteris paribus -- all other things being equal -- but all other
things are not equal. The worker Tesla employed might have found employment elsewhere; it may have
even been more stable, safer employment that did not entail payment in Tesla equity, that is
subject to some uncertainty as to its ultimate value.
To highlight this point, it may be helpful
to consider the economic activity generated by Tesla's competitors in California. These
competitors' operations are being impaired by Tesla's sale of deeply subsidized cars in the state.
While Tesla's competitors do not manufacture cars in the state, they account for
1,366 dealerships
employing 140,596 jobs (that pay cash),
accounting for $8.56 billion in wages,
paying $9.38 billion in taxes, and
making $50 million of charitable contributions per year.
On a more minor point, the IHS Markit report assumes that the $2.1 billion in "wages" paid to
Tesla workers is spent in the California economy. As discussed above, the report includes in these
"wages" Tesla equity granted to employees without quantifying what percentage of wages this equity
represented. We are skeptical as to how many employees spent their Tesla stock to boost local
economic activity.
Cars are made of stuff . Software is made of bytes. While I don't say that Silicon
Valley squillionaire Tesla boss Elon Musk has stuff and bytes confused in his mind, it is true
that the unexpected materiality of the automobile is causinge his company problems, and may be
enough to sink it. Further, broadening focus from Tesla to the industry, the tendency of
electric vehicles (EVs) to de materialize -- by catching on fire -- will pose problems
for (publicly funded) local governments that nobody seems to be thinking about. I'll show the
first by looking at Tesla's attempt to automate the final assembly process; and the second by
looking at a recent Tesla battery fire.
In 2006 Tesla CEO Elon Musk published a 'top secret masterplan' on Tesla's website. It was
low on detail but the groundbreaking electric car company has stuck to it. Tesla, it said,
was going to '[1]create a low volume sports car, [2]use that money to develop a medium volume
car at a lower price and [3]use that money to create an affordable, high volume car'.
In Silicon Valley terms, Musk was going to create a manufacturing process that scaled
, a process where the only requirement to solve capacity problems is a frictionless capital
injection for bandwidth or servers (as opposed to, say, hiring and training workers). But now
we see that Tesla's process not scaling; that's why Tesla keeps not making Musk's
projections. A report from Bernstein analysts Max Warburton and Toni Sacconaghi ( noted at NC
here , and then at Business Insider (" The Robots Are Killing
Tesla ") explains why. Musk hoped to achieve the third phase of his master plan ("high
volume") through hyper-automation, including automating final assembly. It's not working.
Quoting Warburton and Sacconaghi (via
Twitter ):
We've noted Elon Musk's claims about reinventing auto production with interest. He's
talked about manufacturing being "a competitive advantage," about "the machine that builds
the machine," [ Wired ] and about
"manufacturing as the product." He has said " you can't have people in the production
line itself , otherwise you drop to people speed. So there will be no people in the
production process itself. People will maintain the machines, upgrade them, and deal with the
anomolies." These are bold claims. They have been accompanied by Tesla's huge capital
investments in the last two years We've noticed reports of hundreds of multi-axis Kuka robots
being purchases for Fremont (467 reported in just one batch -- we believe the total is far
greater). We've watched as Tesla bought outright a German automation design company
(Grohmann) to help it with its task.
[A]s Tesla has struggled to ramp Model 4 -- and as the company has sought to
optimistically discuss its assembly line design -- we've rather belatedly figured out what's
going on. The reason Tesla spent all this money, the reason it bought Grohmann, and the
reason it can't build Model 3's are all linked. Tesla has tried to hyper-automate Model 3
production. And like every historic attempt at high automation in the industry, it's
struggling.
In fact, Tesla's automation attempt is not only struggling; Warburton and Sacconaghi predict
it will fail. Here is why:
[Tesla] has also tried to automate final assembly . Tesla's approach to automation rings
alarm bells. If we look at the history of the auto industry, we can see that attempts to
automate final assembly haven't worked. Many OEMs have tried it in the past -- such as Fiat,
VW, and GM. They have all failed, often spectacularly. Anyone familiar with automobile
assembly knows this . .
[A]utomation is expensive -- and usually proves far less effective, highly inflexible, and
creates quality problems further down the line.
It's the materiality -- the bad welds, crooked bolts, misaligned fasteners, defective seals
-- that hyper-automantion cannot handle. Warburton concludes: "[A]utomation in final assembly
doesn't work." High-tech manufacturing expert
Roger Bohn agrees:
Fundamentally, Tesla has a product design and production process that are "not
manufacturable." That is, the product tolerances are considerably tighter than the process
variation. The result is that they produce lots of junk that must be scrapped or reworked.
They can partially reduce process variation by stopping more often to adjust machines, but
this causes downtime and creates "bottlenecks."
All this means that Tesla can't remove people from the production line. That means that
Tesla can't make Musk's projections. What that means, we'll see.
As a sidebar, it's worth noting that Tesa had the same issues with its battery manufacturing
plant.
CNBC in January:
Tesla's problems with battery production at the company's Gigafactory in Sparks, Nevada,
are worse than the company has acknowledged according to a number of current and former Tesla
employees.
Here is a description of the materiality of the battery-making process:
What does it take to make a Model 3 battery? Each battery pack contains four modules. And
each module contains seven bandoliers, or cooling tubes with a row of lithium-ion cells glued
to each side. Those cells have to be precisely aligned.
Manual assembly works for some parts of battery production, like bolting down and gluing
the "clamshells," or outer structures that hold a battery pack together.
But bandoliers are tough to put together by hand . Cells can be pushed a bit
too high or low, or otherwise drop out of alignment, as they're squeezed against the glue on
a cooling tube and packed into modules.
A current Gigafactory engineer recalled that in December, factory workers were manually
"slapping bandoliers together as fast as they possibly could," generating a lot of
scrap in the process.
Once the machines in the factory were able to crank out bandoliers as fast or faster than
the manual laborers, Tesla began sending Panasonic workers back to their employer, sources
said.
Today, Tesla is winding down manual assembly as much as possible at the
Gigafactory, a hopeful sign.
But one engineer who works there cautioned that the automated lines still can't run at
full capacity. "There's no redundancy, so when one thing goes wrong, everything shuts down.
And what's really concerning are the quality issues ."
Now, I can believe that in fact battery production will scale, simply because they are
orders of magnitude less complex than cars. Still, it's telling that we have the same issues at
both hyper-automated assembly lines. It's almost like management has a gigantic blind spot,
because the same problem keeps happening .
Battery Fires as an Externality
From Tesla's doomed quest for struggles with hyper-automation, let's turn to a
recent Tesla incident that points up a difficulty for the electric vehicle industry as a whole:
The death of Apple Engineer Wei Huang in his Tesla, and the subsequent battery fire. ABC
News describes the incident:
Huang was traveling at freeway speeds on the split along the Highway 101 and state Highway
85 junction, lost control and struck the middle barrier causing his vehicle to catch fire,
according to the CHP. A Sig-Alert was issued at 9:29 a.m., the time that the CHP was notified
of the crash.
After Huang's Tesla hit the median, it landed in the second left-most lane of southbound
Highway 101 and was hit by a white Mazda and consequently struck again by a gray Audi
traveling in the adjacent lane, CHP officials said.
(One can only conclude that Tesla -- and the entire EV industry -- dodged a bullet, in
public relations terms; there are no charred bodies strapped in the seats.)
Now, I'm not arguing that there's anything wrong with Tesla's battery design (though one
can't help but wonder if quality assurance problems at Tesla's GigaFactory were somehow
involved). Instead, I'd like to focus on what the emergency crews and the firefighters had to
do to put out the fire. From the
Mountain View Voice :
Emergency fire crews arrived at the crash shortly after 9:30 a.m., and found that the
front end of the Tesla had "substantial damage," exposing the vehicle's lithium ion battery
and causing it to catch fire, according to Mountain View Fire Chief Juan Diaz. Electric
vehicle fires are typically put out by blasting a large quantity of water -- 3,000 gallons --
directly on the battery to bring down the temperature of the cells, which can overheat and
reach temperatures of up to 900 degrees, he said.
Diaz said the department was put in a difficult situation. Fire crews had 500 gallons of
water at the scene, but getting any more would have required running 2,000 feet of thick fire
hose across Highway 101, which would have been catastrophic for traffic in both directions,
Diaz said. But letting the car continue to burn on a busy highway, destroying the battery,
would have been a bad choice as well, he said.
"In the middle of the Highway 101 freeway, that's not something we want to do," he said.
"And it's not good for the environment with the byproducts of combustion."
Fire crews used the available supply of water and contacted the
manufacturer of the vehicle , Palo Alto-based Tesla, to assist in getting the battery's
temperature under control. Diaz said the engineers essentially disassembled a portion of
the car battery on the spot , and that subsequent thermal imaging showed
that the battery was no longer unstable.
Fire engines escorted the tow truck that removed the Tesla all the way to the
impound yard out of an abundance of caution, Diaz said. Car batteries are capable of
reigniting for 24 hours after cooling.
The challenging situation was made worse by the significant damage caused by collision
itself. Diaz said that Tesla vehicles are built to be very safe, with features to help first
responders deal with lithium ion batteries that ignite, but in this case emergency crews
had no access to the battery's disconnect wires because they were destroyed on impact
[1]. This is the first time the department has dealt with this kind of problem, Diaz said,
and he commended his department's response to the dangerous situation.
(The story doesn't mention
something an observer noted : "Small explosions within the body of the #Tesla just now as
technicians remove damaged batteries.")
Catastrophic automobile accident happen all the time; I doubt very much that the crash that
killed Huang is in any way unusual, even though it involved multiple vehicles. What was unusual
in this case -- what demand special, indeed unique handling -- was the presence of an electric
vehicle, which required (1) six times the amount of water normally used, (2) the presence of an
engineer from the manufacturer (luckily close at hand in Palo Alto), (3) thermal imaging, and
(4) a firetruck escort.
Further, if you RTFM , you
will see that Tesla recommends that fire departments do even more than the Mountain View Fire
Department did. From Tesla's Model X
Emergency Response Guid e (PDF), page 22:
A burning or heated battery releases toxic vapors. These vapors include sulfuric acid,
oxides of carbon, nickel, lithium, copper, and cobalt. Responders should protect themselves
with full PPE, including self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA), and take appropriate
measures to protect civilians downwind from the incident. Use fog streams or
positive-pressure ventilation fans (PPV) to direct smoke and vapors.
So, (5) breathing apparatus, and (6) fog streams, whatever they are -- like a rock and roll
show? -- or big fans. Also, besides (7) something to cut the "first responder loop" with (page
15), (8) "insulated tools" (page 21), and (9) "a large open area" (page 21):
Always advise second responders that there is a risk of battery re-ignition. After Model X
has been involved in submersion, fire, or a collision that has compromised the high voltage
battery, always store the vehicle in an open area at least 50 ft (15 m) from any
exposure.
Presumably, you can't just stick a potentially flaming car in the parking lot behind the
station, so you need a fenced off, lit-up "open area," possibly guarded.
Right now, there aren't very many crashes involving electric vehicles; there were 17 million
new cars sold in 2017, of which 199,826 were EVs. Now, EVs may indeed
catch on fire less often than gasoline-fueled cars , but when they do, it looks like
substantially more resources from emergency responders and firefighters will be required to be
on hand at all times, including equipment, training, and infrastructure[2] (besides potential
medical issues for responders). So when the entire EV industry achieves scale, as it probably
will -- GM, after all, does know something about manufacturing -- there were be
considerable externalities. All this seems like rather a lot to expect of local governments,
even the most beneficent.
Conclusion
The EV industry has two problems: First, it looks like Tesla's hyper-automated EV
manufacturing process will fail (though the GigaFactory, being less complex, may succeed).
Since there are other manufacturers who have more functional views of the role humans should
play on the assembly line, likely the only people affected will be investors, short or long, in
what is, after all, a vanity project for Elon Musk. Second, if the Huang fire is any
indication, there will be significant externalities imposed on the public, especially their
local governments, as EVs become ubiquitous, which the Silicon Valley trade press ignores. In
each case, the materiality of the EV in the workplace -- whether at the point of its assembly
with human hands, or at the point of its disassembly through fire and rescue -- is a key factor
to examine.
NOTES
[1] Somebody should speak to Tesla's engineers about a design for disconnecting the battery
that fails when most needed.
[2] We don't seem to know exactly why lithium-ion batteries catch on fire.
MIT Technology Review , from coverage of a 2013 fire:
There is some real concern out there about the safety of lithium ion batteries, which is
understandable because there have been well reported cases of lithium ion batteries catching
fire. What's unnerving about many of these fires is that they seem to happen
spontaneously.
Yes, that's unnerving indeed. More:
First, the fire illustrated once again how difficult lithium ion battery fires are to put
out. Firefighters thought they had it put out, but it reignited. There are a couple of
schools of thought among battery experts about why this happens.
"A couple of schools of thought." That's unnerving, too.
In a battery fire, the main thing that's burning is the liquid electrolyte, which burns
best when it's exposed to air. One school of thought is that even in the absence of air there
other oxidants within the battery that can create and sustain a fire. It's thought that the
battery electrodes themselves can release oxygen, fueling the fire from within. If this is
the case, all firefighters can do is to work to keep the fire from spreading and wait for the
reactants to burn up.
Other research suggests that this isn't the case. Instead, what might happen is that even
once the fire is put out, the cells stay very hot and keep releasing more electrolyte in the
form of vapor. Once firefighters turn off the water and oxygen can once more come into
contact the vapor, it can reignite.
It seems clear that we need to do more tests and learn the best ways to put out battery
fires, especially as battery-powered cars proliferate.
It seems that in 2013, we don't really have a scientific basis for telling firefighters what
to do. Are there battery mavens in the readership who can bring us up to date on this
point?
EV will get better, and Tesla already gets good reviews, albeit with issues, at CR. Not
long ago they rated Tesla worlds best passenger car. Plus great reviews by owners.
Problems going from small production to big usually has serious problems. And much more
difficult for newbie with newbie tech. Rolls Royce jet engines essentially went under when
simply making bigger what they had been doing for decades.
They probably should have been funding with stock. Probably need 10b.
I really hope they make it. Solar with temp storage plus EV would solve a chunk of our
biggest problem, which is not how the rich treat workers but climate change, though
population is of course behind GW. But for EV to do their part people have to want to buy
them, and Tesla is the only one making that version.
Tesla gets good reviews at CR? Maybe for new car reviews, but long term reliability is
proving to be an issue. In 2015 the model S made news for getting a better-than-perfect score
on CR's new car review, but then ended up with a "not recommended" rating a few months later
due to reports of problems with reliability. Tesla is currently at war with Consumer Reports
over CR's "average" reliability rating for the model 3. CR hadn't driven a 3 yet, but the
rating was based on technology used in the current Model S, which the 3 borrows much
from.
As for Tesla being the only company making an EV people want to buy: the model 3 has been
outsold by the Chevy bolt for every month the 3 was available last year. In the 3's best
month, December, it was outsold by the Bolt 3,227 to 1,060.
I suspect a lot of people are so invested in the Tesla mystique they can't admit to
themselves they bought a pig in a poke and now they're holding the bag. It may be a little
while longer before they can admit that the emperor has no clothes. How's that for stringing
together cliches?
Those who live by the sword will die by the sword. Musk and his various enterprises appear
to subsist more on PR than oxygen. One day Musk tells us that AI will destroy the world, the
next he wants to build an underground hyperloop between various cities, later he explains
that the first batch of people he sends to Mars will likely die there (well, that does seem
rather likely). The technological feasibility of Musk's plans are never questioned by his
adherents. Rather, his ideas are wafted toward the heavens on tremulous clouds of hype.
It's been a while since Americans dreamed big about the future. Musk's contribution to
that could be a worthwhile thing. But the big, visible failure of a hype machine is the
opposite.
According to Lambert's post it appears that Musk bet his company's life on high automation
technology. Ironically, Musk was ensnared by the fog bank of hype surrounding the "Robots Are
Coming (For Your Job, Not Mine)" crowd. He inhaled the PR about robotic automation, that it
was inevitable and incipient and ready for prime time. Now he's choking on the fumes.
Automation isn't there yet. The machines aren't smart enough.
We don't even know what "smart" is, much less how to mechanize it. But an entire industry
calls itself that.
It occurs to me that Steve Jobs, despite his tremendous personal flaws, was a far superior
technologist than Musk. When Apple was working on the iPhone, Jobs never hyped a product that
didn't and couldn't exist. The iPhone was developed in strict secrecy. When Jobs presented it
to the public, it did exactly what he said it did. The iPhone was an iteration on existing
technology -- as opposed to iterating on non-existent technology -- and it was fresh, novel
and useful. Tesla didn't invent the electric car. It doesn't have a self-driving car, either,
because those don't exist, but it sure wants us to think it will, any day now. The moment we
stop believing, Tesla dies.
The car company is having trouble. But the space company is doing very well, and is most
definitely not existing solely in PR. It is executing again and again and again, lifting
cargo and satellites to orbit and returning the boosters to be reused. Oh and by the way,
Tesla did make electric cars cool because of the performance, styling, and mass
availability.
This is a bigger problem than you think
I've noted this elsewhere, but it's interesting to note that GM's Battery design, used on the
Chevy Bolt is actually less flammable.
Because Tesla's battery chemistry is much more flammable than GM's and it requires more
armor to deflect foreign objects.
In this case, it would seem that Tesla's armor has failed.
That's a big deal. The reason why is because electric motors and battery packs (the IP
that Tesla uses is owned by Panasonic) are available everywhere. Putting together batteries
is supposed to be Tesla's core competency, it's competitive advantage, for lack of a better
term.
If you read the analysis, GM has produced a simpler to manufacture, less flammable, and
only slightly less energy dense battery pack. That's on its first serious try too at a
mainstream EV. Seeing as how Tesla is not way ahead on battery technology, what advantages
does it have? Brand and marketing may be the only thing that I see.
Another matter – Tesla vs Toyota
Tesla is quite literally the un-Toyota.
It is ironic that Tesla took over the factory formerly occupied by NUMMI, an icon of the
Toyota Production System (TPS). In the early stages of Tesla production, Toyota sent top
people to help. Yet so much of Tesla's vision of manufacturing is completely contrary to
TPS: Spend large amounts of capital to automate everything possible. Rely on hiring many
engineers to make it work rather than carefully developing talent from within. Repair in
quality rather than designing and building in quality. Aim for an ultrafast assembly line
instead of building to the rate of customer demand (takt). Note that the idea of people
continuously improving does not seem to appear in the Tesla playbook. It seems like a
vision born of the machine paradigm, not Wheatley's living system paradigm. It is also
interesting that in the gigafactories "production hell," Elon Musk developed some
appreciation of the value of people in crisis management: "It has to some degree renewed my
faith in humanity that the rapid evolution of progress and the ability of people to adapt
rapidly is quite remarkable."
What Elon Musk is missing is exactly the point that has made Toyota so successful.
Toyota's living system approach is exactly what has been missing from Musk's mechanisitic
view and needs to be at the center of his vision, not as an occasional response to a
crisis. Toyota is a learning organization with a long memory. In 1979, Toyota launched the
Lexus LS400 with the most advanced automation in the company at its Tahara, Japan, plant,
including robots in assembly doing jobs normally done by people. Sales were below
expectations and the plant was underutilized. Toyota's reflection was that the high capital
costs were fixed and could not be adjusted to match demand.
Toyota prides itself on only building to actual demand and when demand is down the
company wants the flexibility to reduce costs to remain profitable. This is possible with
people. While Toyota provides long-term job security for its regular team members, it uses
a variable workforce of agency personnel who can be released in a sales downturn. It also
plans overtime, which can be eliminated. In the Great Recession Toyota cut management pay
and in some plants limited production team members to 35 paid hours a week. And Toyota can
always find useful things to do with team members not needed for production, but robots
simply sit idle. Since the Tahara experience, Toyota reduced automation rather than
accelerated it.
The difference is that Toyota is competent at making vehicles. Tesla not so much, at least
not at the moment, and it will have to learn from its mistakes if it is to survive.
Another irony here. Tesla actually brushed off Toyota's help. It's not well known, but
Toyota actually helped another high end car manufacturer that was struggling, Porsche, which
adapted many of the TPS' best practices.
I suspect that Yves, who has worked in Japan, might be able to chime in a bit on Kaizen as
well.
The luxury cars regularly require fixes before they can leave the factory, according to
the workers. Quality checks have routinely revealed defects in more than 90 percent of
Model S and Model X vehicles inspected after assembly, these individuals said, citing
figures from Tesla's internal tracking system as recently as October. Some of these people
told Reuters of seeing problems as far back as 2012.
Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) said its quality control process is unusually rigorous, designed to
flag and correct the tiniest imperfections. It declined to provide post-assembly defect
rates to Reuters or comment on those cited by employees.
The world's most efficient automakers, such as Toyota (7203.T), average
post-manufacturing fixes on fewer than 10 percent of their cars, according to industry
experts. Getting quality right during initial assembly is crucial, they said, because
repairs waste time and money.
Tesla now has a reputation for unreliable cars with poor fit and finish. That is entirely
self inflicted. They have been shipping beta products and have made a number of pretty bad
decisions.
Musk also is hysterically ant-union. GM made peace with the UAW 80 years ago. I guess
10-percenter liberals now are "post-union," so they and Musk are compatible.
I believe the Tesla pack design is based partly on the knowledge that li ion cells
sometimes spontaneously explode or catch on fire. The pack is made from a lot of small cells
in separated compartments, so if some cells go out or burn, they shouldn't send the whole
pack up in flames. I don't know what happens with GM which uses fewer but larger cells. I
think there have been some incidents of contained battery failures (don't know if fires were
involved) in Tesla cars. The car is still functional enough to tell the driver to pull over
and call Tesla's roadside assistance.
I wonder how often that crash attenuator has gotten hit and whether there have been
previous times when the attenuator has been subsequently hit in another accident before being
replaced after the first one. I've seen those things on the freeway before but didn't know
how they worked.
Yeah the model 3 assembly automation story sounds like a cautionary tale.
An extraordinary amount of money and intellect are consciously being spent to remove
humans from manufacturing and transportation rather than increasing safety and efficiency.
The intensity is frightening. The Tesla was brought to the dealer to fix the autopilot that
swiveled the car seven to 10 times toward the same exact barrier. Rather than turning
autopilot off, the Apple Engineer, I surmise, wanted to find and fix the bug. But, instead he
died in Silicon Valley's quest for a dystopian future without labor. A world without a
purpose in life for human beings.
That's a particularly American obsession. I'm visiting Tokyo, where the street trees are
meticulously pruned. That takes labor. In the US, the only attention a street tree gets is
when it dies and is cut down.
Don't forget all the dogs and drunks that pee on said trees, helping them "just die." And
the stamping feet that compact the root spaces. And the effects of all that other human
effluvium that lands on the canopy and infiltrates the soil.
The problem Tesla is having is they don't have an automated production process, otherwise
there wouldn't be so much rework at the plants and they wouldn't have such poor build
quality, while it does a long time to get that to work well, its not easy or over night, even
if you were producing large mass products(cars). none of the mainstream producers were
successful, but now all of them do so, and the quality is light years better than it was when
they didn't have automation. They also had have about 3 times as many workers as they do now
to produce fewer vehicles.
I won't say much about the lithium ion batteries except to say that if they spontaneously
ignite from time to time, then it is because they have been pushed into production before
they understood the science of how they work. I went looking for the video clip of that Tesla
fire and found another one from Germany a few months ago ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzfxZMXRG38
). Maybe Tesla just hates Fire Departments which is why one of their cars crashed into a big
red fire truck because the car couldn't "see" it.
It seems to be a dream of Silicon Valley to get rid of all workers and replace them with
robots guided by AIs. Elon's factory is just the latest attempt at pushing this agenda
forward and he had as much luck as an IBM engineer becoming a farmer. This is not something
that you can just keeping throwing engineers at and expect that problem to be solved. You
wonder if he has even heard of W. Edwards Deming or even the Japanese concept of kaizan.
Humans are where they are because they adapt. Machines don't
Maybe a quote here might help. The science fiction writer Robert A. Heinlein once wrote: "A
human being should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship,
design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the
dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new
problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die
gallantly. Specialization is for insects."
And may I add also for robot car assembly machines?
Well at 3:02PM on April 1st, @ElonMusk thought it would be fun for TSLA sharefholders if
he made an April Fool's joke on Twitter :
Tesla Goes Bankrupt Palo Alto, California, April 1, 2018 -- Despite intense efforts to
raise money, including a last-ditch mass sale of Easter Eggs, we are sad to report that
Tesla has gone completely and totally bankrupt. So bankrupt, you can't believe it.
As you can imagine the joke is getting mixed reviews.
The stories about how Tesla tried to push robotics and automation to unheard of levels in
the industry is particularly damning. It explains their inability to hit targets project
years out after consuming gobs of capital in an industry that is really mature. Maybe it also
explains the rats fleeing the ship, errr, the high level executives seeking greener pastures
(and potentially cashing in their options).
I was finally able to convince a college friend to retrieve his $1000 dollar down payment
on a Model 3. Said friend is a programmer who this winter said he can't wait until Tesla is
doing all the driving for us because people are so bad at driving. So he was firmly in the
eating out of Elon's palm camp. For him to come around and claim back is money is something
else. Granted, it's just one person, but I have to think other deposit holders are taking
similar action, or at least thinking about it with the recent news.
"... By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street ..."
"... When will investors get tired of feeding their capital into this cash-burn machine? ..."
"... Bankruptcy is becoming an increasingly common "exit" from leverage buyouts that private equity firms undertook during the boom before the Financial Crisis. And the pension obligations? Read ..."
Posted on March
29, 2018 by Yves SmithBy Wolf Richter, a San
Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive
international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street
When will investors get tired of feeding their capital into this cash-burn
machine?
Tesla shares plunged 8.2% during regular trading hours on Tuesday and another 2% in
after-hours trading to $272.50, below where they'd been a year ago ($277.45), and down 28% from
September 18, when the market still had hopes for the Model 3.
The unsecured junk bond due in 2025 with a 5.3% coupon – which Tesla sold last August
when its stock was still over $357 a share – dropped to a record low of 89 cents on the
dollar in after-hours trading.
During a nasty day on the stock market, wunderkind Tesla got hammered by Tesla reality.
At First It Was the NTSB
The National Transportation Safety Board
announced that it was sending investigators to California to investigate the fatal and
fiery crash of a Model X on Friday morning that had shut down a carpool ramp and two lanes of
Highway 101, the Silicon Valley artery, for almost six hours, twice as long as most accidents
of this type,
according to the California Highway Patrol. NTSB said it would examine various issues,
including the post-crash fire and removing the vehicle from the accident site.
This is the second NTSB field investigation into the crash of a Tesla this year. In January,
the NTSB opened an investigation into the crash of a Tesla -- apparently in semi-autonomous
mode -- and a fire truck.
In the accident on Friday, the Model X hit a freeway divider, then was hit by a Mazda, and
crashed into an Audi. The lithium-ion cells caught fire. The driver of the Tesla perished. The
fire department ended up calling Tesla to determine how to extinguish the fire, as the exposed
batteries were also an electrocution hazard.
Then It Was Moody's .
During after-hours trading, Tesla got hit on the credit side with a resounding
downgrade from Moody's , which specifically:
Moody's cites these reasons:
Tesla's ratings reflect the significant shortfall in the production rate of the company's
Model 3 electric vehicle.
Tesla produced only 2,425 Model 3s during the fourth quarter of 2017; it is currently
targeting a weekly production rate of 2,500 by the end of March, and 5,000 per week by the
end of June. This compares with the company's year-earlier production expectations of 5,000
per week by the end of 2017 and 10,000 by the end of 2018.
These are just Tesla targets. Tesla never hits its targets. It overpromises to hype its
shares. It didn't overpromise, however, its "manufacturing hell," as CEO Elon Musk put it so
eloquently. And the few Model 3s now driving around out there appear to be beta-versions with
scads of quality problems. Moody's goes on relentlessly:
The company also faces liquidity pressures due to its large negative free cash flow and
the pending maturities of convertible bonds ($230 million in November 2018 and $920 million
in March 2019).
The negative outlook reflects the likelihood that Tesla will have to undertake a large,
near-term capital raise in order to refund maturing obligations and avoid a liquidity
short-fall.
Tesla has a lot of debt. Among the $23 billion in liabilities are: $10.2 billion in
long-term debt and $854 million in customer deposits, according to its
annual report . Tesla also had considerable liquidity at the end of December, including
$3.4 billion in cash and securities, and a "moderate availability" under its $1.9 billion
asset-based loan facility (some of which has been burned up in Q1). But Moody's says that this
is " not adequate to cover :"
1. The approximately $500 million in minimum cash that we estimate Tesla must maintain for
normal operations;
2. A 2018 operating cash burn that will approximate $2 billion if Tesla maintains high
discretionary capital expenditures to increase capacity; and
3. Convertible debt maturities of approximately $1.2 billion through early 2019.
These cash needs will likely require Tesla to undertake a near-term capital raise
exceeding $2 billion. Moreover, if the company maintains its expected pace of expansion, it
will likely need to raise additional capital during the second half of 2019.
Moody's threatened that ratings could be cut even lower if:
Standard and Poor's rates Tesla B-, one notch above CCC, and on a par with Moody's lowered
B3 rating.
Despite the drop on Tuesday, Tesla's shares are still inexplicably above the single
digits, considering how much it loses year after year, for ten years in a row, with every sign
pointing to even bigger losses going forward, and how much investor-cash it burns at an
accelerating rate, year-after-year, and considering the endless false promises and hype and the
truly amazing "manufacturing hell" that is unequaled among automakers.
Once the true believers in this stock finally walk away and the shares go where they belong,
Tesla's debt will get in trouble. The reason is simple: The entire premise of the creditors is
that Tesla will always have a high share price, and so it can always sell more shares to raise
more money to service its debt. But once issuing more shares becomes difficult in an unwilling
market, creditors won't be able to figure out how on earth (not Mars) Tesla is going to pay
them interest and principal, with no new money coming in, while also burning several billions a
year on its operations.
Once this powerful cash-burn machine can no longer fuel itself by selling new shares and new
debt, it's a scenario for default. Moody's would then slap a "D" rating on the company and its
debt, by which time most investors have already watched their capital go up in smoke.
Bankruptcy is becoming an increasingly common "exit" from leverage buyouts that private
equity firms undertook during the boom before the Financial Crisis. And the pension
obligations? Read
PE Firm Cerberus Capital's "Rollup" Collapses into Bankruptcy
(theverge.com)BeauHD on Wednesday February 21, 2018
@06:10PM from the potentially-meritless dept. A new lawsuit from a former Tesla employee
claims the
company knowingly sold defective cars , and that the employee was demoted and eventually
fired after reporting the practice to his superiors. The lawsuit was filed in late January in
New Jersey Superior Court under the Conscientious Employee Protection
Act (CEPA). The Verge reports: The former employee, Adam Williams, worked for Tesla as a
regional manager in New Jersey dating back to late 2011. While there, he says he watched the
company fail "to disclose to consumers high-dollar, pre-delivery damage repairs" before
delivering its vehicles, according to the complaint. Instead, he says the company sold these
cars as "used," or labeled as "demo/loaner" vehicles. "There's no merit to this lawsuit. Mr.
Williams' description of how Tesla sells used or loaner vehicles is totally false and not how
we do things at Tesla," a representative for the company said in response to the lawsuit. "It's
also at odds with the fact that we rank highest in customer satisfaction of any car brand, with
more owners saying they'd buy a Tesla again than any other manufacturer. Mr. Williams was
terminated at Tesla for performance reasons, not for any other reason." The lawyer for the
plaintiff could not be reached in time for publish.
Williams says in the court filing that he reported this behavior in late 2016 and early
2017 to his supervisor, as well as Lenny Peake, Tesla's East Coast Regional Manager, and Jerome
Guillen, a company vice president. Shortly after that, he claims, he was demoted to service
manager of the Springfield, New Jersey Tesla store. He then says he was demoted again later in
the year to a "mobile manager" position and was ultimately fired in September 2017. In the
lawsuit, Williams argues that he was terminated for reporting the alleged lawbreaking
practices, and he should therefore be covered by CEPA's whistleblower protection.
(electrek.co)BeauHD on Monday February 26, 2018
@05:20PM from the what's-inside dept. Rei writes: With an estimated
8,670 Model 3s delivered , a race is on as competitors and owners work to figure out its
limits and explore the tech behind it. Many-time Tesla teardown expert "Ingineerix" has posted
a series of videos
and discussed
his findings on Reddit . Among them: what appears to be the industry's first switched reluctance
motor , a massive "smuggling compartment" allocated for a future front-wheel motor, no
physical fuses (all solid-state
), significant wiring harness length reductions via the use of multiple body controllers, a
swappable crash energy absorption system, a liquid-cooled compute unit, and redundant
controllers for all safety-related systems. He followed up by posting
a screenshot of the car tricked into "factory mode " to reveal its internal specs,
including a 1200A max discharge current, 370kW max discharge power, and a 76 kWh pack with
72,5kWh usable. Meanwhile, Munro and Associates tore down a Model 3 for an undisclosed, "
not
Tesla " client, releasing a video criticizing its build
quality and for difficulty in accessing the HV cables in the event of an accident (Munroe's
claims were dismissed by Ingineerix). Meanwhile, engineers from German automakers were
extremely
impressed by what they found during their teardown -- particularly the power electronics
system, which they described as "compact, expandable, fully integrated, modular, easily
accessible, well-protected, reasonably priced and astonishingly clever in many details." Other
owners have been putting their cars on dynamometers to measure their power. Drag Times suffered some skid
and measured a conflicting 281 / 327.6 hp with 552 lb-ft torque. Contrarily, Tesla Repair Channel found
consistent readings around 250hp when starting from 30mph, but consistently around 390 hp when
starting from 10mph. The reason for the discrepancy is not yet clear.
So, paying more and more US workers to work build the biggest factories in the world
employing tens if thousands new US workers is something you oppose?
You favor GE closing US factories in favor of building produces outside the US? Ditto
pretty much every other industrial corporation?
Apple closed factories in the US and contracted with factories in Asia because Jobs was an
idiot for building factories in the US, so he was fired by people like you. When he returned
to Apple which was left with pretty much on asset, "Apple". Tim Cook explained building
factories in the US was impossible because paying US workers to learn how to build products
and facctories was too costly.
Elon Musk has proved Tim Cook was correct, but he ignores people like you, and keeps
hiring more and more workers in the US to make stuff that you consider impossible to make,
especially in the US.
Tesla market cap is actually closely tied to the productive capital assets Tesla owns.
Apple market cap is many times higher than the productive assets Apple actually owns. When
the same factories in Asia making Apple products are able to flood the market with products
just like Apple products, but without the Apple logo, Apple market cap will crash. Just like
has happened with GE. Sears.
What you are accuse DrDick of opposing is not exactly what Musk does.
And BTW who trained his rocket engineers? Did they grow on trees? I think it was the
pre-cost-cutting aerospace private/public sector, i.e. mostly government funded.
Not to take away from the SpaceX achievements which are considerable, but saying he/they
can do a better job than the govt rings a bit hollow. The govt funded his talent base with
past projects, and then neolib/con led administrations defunded the non-military part of
aerospace.
In a way private enterprise *can* do a better job than the govt in some areas, because it
will not be hindered and defunded by the R party or their neolib competition, but the
ambitions of investors and other supporting stakeholders can reign more freely. Also the
private sector is allowed to cut more corners than the public sector which is held to higher
standards as regards procedure.
But this is more an indictment of "conservatives" and profiteers than publicly organized
efforts in general.
And the car factories. They have "issues" (yes complex technology logistics are not easy),
and there have been somewhat substantiated rumors about anti-union goings on.
I have no problem with techies per se (my son works for a software company), jut the ones
like Musk who think that because they understand that they have the answers to everything,
but actually understand nothing else.
At my local utility's rate of 14 cents/kWh, that works out to a total fuel cost for the year
of $530, or about 3.4 cents/mile. Contrast that to about $3,000 and 20 cents/mile for a
comparable car like the Mercedes S Class.
But the Model S actually used more electricity than the 5,074 kWh on the car's energy
meter.
For one thing, the charging process is only about 85 percent efficient. Which means that for
every 85 kWh used by the car, 100 kWh came through my electric meter. In reality, that
5,074-kWh number is actually more like 5,700 kWh.
In addition, my car's "vampire" power draw while parked and shut down averaged about 4.5 kWh
per day for the first 10 months, and then about 1 kWh per day after a software update two
months ago. I estimate the vampire draw sucked up an additional 1,400 kWh or so.
That brings total actual energy usage for the year: about 7,100 kWh--putting efficiency at
about 466 Wh/mile, or about 2.1 miles/kWh.
The vampire and charging losses bumped the year's real fuel cost up to $820, or about 5.3
cents per mile. Which is still barely a quarter of the fuel cost of a comparable gasoline
car.
... ... ...
Earlier this winter, during my first January with the car--which was followed by the coldest
February in recent history around these parts--I found that my energy usage nearly doubled for
the short local trips that I usually take.
... ... ...
•The side mirrors don't adjust when I shift into reverse, as they are supposed to do.
I'll have it looked at next time I'm in for service.
... ... ...
Swapping the battery
Frustrated by my 60-kWh car's lack of range between the few-and-far-between East Coast
Superchargers at Interstate speeds in cold weather, I upgraded my 60-kWh battery to an 85-kWh
pack in December.
At first, I was told by the factory that such a thing wasn't possible. But the service guys
at White Plains found a way. After just two days in the shop, I had my upgraded car back,
complete with its discreet chrome "85" emblem.
I'm delighted with the result.
A 2,500-mile Supercharger road trip to Florida and back was a breeze, rather than the
white-knuckle freeze-in-the-slow-lane ordeal of previous road trips with the smaller
battery.
1. The Limitations on Long Trips This is more a criticism of Tesla's limited Supercharger
network in the Northeast than of the car itself. But the fact is, after a year of ownership, I
still can't reasonably drive the Model S to visit friends in Maine, Vermont, and upstate New
York, nor to three of the colleges my daughter has applied to for next year.
My fingers are crossed that this problem will go away one of these days. Or years.
2. The Vampire It's not the money spent on wasted electricity over the year--maybe
$200--that bothers me so much. It's the idea that the supposed best car in the world has a
basic flaw that hasn't been totally fixed in far more than a year.
While a recent
software update reduced the vampire draw substantially, I still lose anywhere from 3 to 10
miles of range every single day. My Volt has no vampire losses whatsoever. In fact, no other
electric car has vampire losses, as far as I know.
May.13.13 | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)Nathan Weiss Long/short equity,
value, special situations, contrarian Get email alerts (200 followers)
On Thursday, I published an article about the
environmental merits of the the Tesla Model S , highlighting that I believe it is
effectively one of the most heavily polluting vehicles on the road. The article was met by a
barrage of attacks, the vast majority of which were by people who clearly did not read the
entire article. While we urge those with a sincere interest in our work to read our original
analysis, we also felt a simplified article with fewer, more basic calculations would result in
a more productive discussion about the environmental merits of the Tesla Model S.
The CO2 Generated Driving the Model S
Based on national average CO2 emissions calculations quoted by Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:
TSLA ), the Model S sedan
effectively emits 176g of CO2 per mile driven (622g of CO2 per kWh generated). To answer our
critics, we focus on the national average because Tesla is a mass-market car maker planning to
sell hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the United States over the next few years.
According to the footnotes on Tesla's website, their CO2 calculations are based on a Model S
consuming .283 kWh of electricity per mile driven - traveling 300 miles on a full charge of the
85 kWh battery. The reality is that in the 'real world,' drivers of the Tesla Model S have
reported higher energy consumption than Tesla and the EPA ratings suggest: By far the largest
single source of efficiency data from Model S owners is the 'L
ifetime Average Wh/Mile ' thread in the Tesla Motors forum, which reveals that the 48
owners of the 85 kWh Model S who posted to the thread realized average power consumption of
.367 kWh per mile driven (232 miles per 85 kWh) over 175,629 total miles. Contrary to claims
made in the comments about our previous article, we are not cherry-picking data! The 'Lifetime
Average Wh/Mile' thread is the largest collection of reported energy consumption by Model S
users and a fair representation of the vehicle's efficiency.
Using energy consumption of .367 kWh per mile driven rather than .283 kWh per mile driven,
the Model S effectively emits 228g of CO2 per mile driven. This puts the effective CO2
emissions of the Model S just above that of the Honda Civic Hybrid (202g per mile) and the
popular Prius V (212g per mile). Unfortunately, these calculations do not tell the whole story
of the Tesla Model S.
"... And over approx. 30 to 35 mph wind resistance exceeds rolling resistance & increases dramatically at each increment of velocity after that at an exponential rate. ..."
The Missing Piece in Plans for an All-Electric Vehicle Fleet: Electricity The New York Times has a
piece today
on barriers to the replacement of internal combustion-powered vehicles to an all-electric fleet in the United States. It talks about
production costs, the availability of key minerals and the need for a charging station infrastructure, but it oddly passes over the
most obvious impediment, at least from the perspective of climate change, the large increase it would require in electrical generating
capacity.
If the goal is, at it should be, rapid decarbonization of the economy, conversion to electric powertrains is worth doing only
if it results in the replacement of petroleum by renewable energy sources, so lets look at the arithmetic.
According to the latest version of Lawrence Livermore's invaluable
energy spaghetti diagram
, 25.7 quads of energy, in the form of petroleum, were used as inputs to the transportation sector. (A quad is a quadrillion BTUs,
approximately the amount of energy in eight billions gallons of gasoline.) Electric vehicles vary in their efficiency, and there
might be improvements on this front in the future, but lets use the common assumption that EV's are four times as energy efficient
as ICV's; that means we are looking at about 6.4 quads of added electrical demand.
Electricity output in 2016 was 12.6 quads, which implies we would need a bit over 50% more capacity to accommodate an all-electric
fleet. Of course, the actual expansion would be less than this because EV's could take advantage of off-peak capacity. Nevertheless,
from a decarbonization perspective, the critical constraint is not capacity as such but energy inputs as fuel. A natural gas plant
might be able to put out more electricity over a 24-hour cycle without additional capital investment, but only by burning more gas.
Those with greater expertise than I can summon can tell us how much efficiency we can squeeze from existing and prospective electrical
generating technology.
So somewhat more than 50% additional electricity is needed; how much of this can come from non-carbon sources? The most optimistic
scenario is one in which nuclear energy is included in this (non-carbon) mix, so assume the goal is simply to zero out coal and gas.
These two sources currently account for 62% of inputs into the electrical generating sector. No doubt we can get significant reductions
simply through efficiency measures; think of all those electrically-heated buildings leaking energy through poor insulation. If for
convenience we lump together increases in non-carbon inputs and efficiency savings, this would need to total 23.3 quads, the current
delivery of coal and gas to US electrical power stations, if the services provided by electricity use were to remain constant. If
a shift to EV's boosts electrical demand by, say, 40%, the need for renewable sources and efficiency savings would go up to 38.3
quads (23.3 current carbon input plus 15 new input), an increase of almost two-thirds. It is difficult see how this could be achieved
in the space of a generation or so, which is the timescale we face if we are to meet our declared carbon goals.
The bottom line as I see it is that, while a shift to electrical powertrains is necessary if we are to have motorized vehicles
in a post-carbon world, realistic scenarios for the electrical sector require a massive shrinkage of the number of such vehicles
we'll be able to operate, at least for the foreseeable future. This is unfortunate on two counts -- it will make it more difficult
to sustain living standards across the transition ahead of us, and it will increase the political barriers to getting the job done
-- but we won't make it go away by not seeing it for what it is.
Longtooth , December 20, 2017 12:30 pm
The myth that EV's solve or even can have a material positive effect on GHG reductions on a global basis is indeed predicated
on all additional required energy being supplied by renewables (zero carbon emissions sources). E.g that all surface transport
energy now reliant on fossil fuels will be replaced by renewables, excluding ocean transport.
Unfortunately for the fantasy there is no (absolutely no) theoretical scenario by any gov't agency on the planet, nor any credible
academic scientific analysis which shows this is even physically possible without the predominant global implementation of nuclear
energy production and then the consequent unresolvable problem of safely storing nuclear waste ad infinitum.
The ipcc reports, every 4 year's, describe 5 or 6 scenarios of which only 2 or 3 can reduce GHG emissions to thresholds sufficient
to maintain the global temperature rise below acceptable levels and "acceptable" has continued to increase over the years of the
ippc reports (predominantly because the published reports require gov't agents to sign off first effecting purely political interests).
Unfortunately (again) none of these 2 or 3 scenarios has ever been able to be shown as practically possible, again however
only with magic asterisks (carbon capture & storage) & massive increases in global nuclear energy production.
Even under those perfectly idealized conditions however there is no solution to the global costs and funding required to do
this, which is not even possible without amortizing the costs of implementation by the present two generations over multiple future
generations, and that has no actual or imagined solution at all and it still has no solution for nuclear energy waste disposal
ad ifinitum on this planet or even shipping it off to outer space (as has been proposed by some fantasies dreamers).
In other words the entire myth is founded on assumptions for which the means & methods have never been shown to be possible
without simply assuming "we'll figure it out along the way".
While this is the reality it is still imperative that the global community of humans try with all effort to do the possible.
Unfortunately (again) all available evidence is that the global community is absolutely fully dependent on fossils fuel sourced
energy to even maintain standards of living, much less improve them for the bulk of humanity that lags far, far behind the OECDs.
The reality is that the global population will have to be cut by at least half to realize a future planet inhabitable under
the conditions that have prevailed for moder humans. This will in fact occur in due course by starvation, the wars that will ensue
as a result of conflicts of interest as warming continues unabated, and increasing disease based deaths as warming continues.
I know this isn't the desired outcome of the myths that have been created to counter this reality.. what human wants to contemplate
it as real if they can avoid it by assuming it won't happen. What government wants to tell it's people & the rest of the globe's
people that our future progeny is collectively fucked, while we collectively decide to fuck them to maintain our own comforts
& conveniences, and fail to decide that to save our progenies semblance of enjoying life as we know it because we'ed have to sacrifice
now and refuse to do it.
One of the "nice " things about this approach is that none of us will be around to have to deal with it perhaps a few of the
generation now just being born, but only those from the third world, as the wealthiest nations continue on their merry path to
maintain and improve GPD and standards of living (albeit at increasingly greater levels of inequality),,, all of which requires
continued increases in fossil fuel consumption & GHG emissions
Gee I hope this comment wasn't a downer.
Jim A. , December 20, 2017 1:01 pm
Of course one of the effects of the "demand smoothing" that charging cars overnight has is that coal becomes more competitive
for supplying that power. And switching the power source for transportation from hydrocarbons (which gets energy from the creation
of carbon dioxide and water) to coal, (which gets energy from the creation of carbon dioxide alone) might well worsen the carbon
footprint of transportation.
Kaleberg , December 20, 2017 2:21 pm
Yes, moving away from fossil fuels is a big jump, and no one expects 100% replacement in the next 10 or even 20 years.. If
electric vehicles are four times as efficient as fossil fuel powered vehicles, then overall energy use would drop by 19.3 quads
from 25.7 quads to about 6.4 quads. Even if we continued to use fossil fuels for another generation or two, that would still be
a massive savings and one well worth pursuing.
If we assume a 30 year transition, one commensurate with the planned life span of the typical power generation facility, we
can imagine continuing the transition from coal to natural gas which cuts energy demand nearly 50%. (This is why we used 2.5 quads
less energy for power generation in 2016 as opposed to 2010.) This would give us lots of time to add that 6.4 quads of renewable
power. We're talking about adding 0.22 quads of capacity a year. That's about ten 1-gigawatt solar power plants a year. It's an
ambitious goal, but not an outrageous one.
One advantage of renewable power is that there has been a demonstrated learning curve. When the Chinese government decided
to build a solar power industry, for example, they brought costs down dramatically. Wind has worked similarly, though less dramatically.
We're even seeing the first large scale power storage schemes.
I really don't think that it will be energy issues that limit the number of motorized vehicles we'll have on the roads in 2050.
The more likely limits will be traffic capacity and population growth issues.
We can get the Chinese and the Germans to electrify us -- like we and the Germans wired Britain a hundred or so years ago while
the Brits made money with their money. Last I heard firing generators with gas to charge vehicle batteries has a multiply lower
carbon foot print than burning gasoline in engines -- we can just get on the good side of Vladimir Putin for the gas.
Longtooth , December 20, 2017 3:57 pm
Would any of you dreamers be willing to provide the credible source that shows real wold EV's are "four times more energy efficient
than ICE's"?
Joel , December 20, 2017 6:20 pm
Molten salt reactors?
Lyle , December 20, 2017 6:42 pm
You have to take the losses in generation into account in this unless you are doing the electrification to fight ground level
smog. the best fossil fuel plants run about 60% input energy(fuel) to output electricity (combined cycle gas plant). This site
shows auto energy losses :
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/atv.shtml
Note that it says power to the wheels is 16 to 25% but 4 to 7 % can be recouped by regenerative braking. In terms of useful energy
it cites also about 2% for HVAC fans heated seats etc as well as lighting.
Note that of course in cold weather the free heat source
from the ICE has gone away, and needs to be replaced by something, (perhaps a low temp heat pump, as electric heat would be prohibitive
in terms of power).
Using the least pessimistic numbers for electric cars and the most pessimistic for gasoline cars you get close
to 4 to 1 using combined cycle gas plants,
However to make things work this does require putting solar panels over all parking lots at work places so that the cars can charge
when the solar energy is maxed out, And/or putting a second car type battery in the home and much larger roof solar panels.
If pushing nukes, consider T=thorium reactors, more available and safer than uranium ones. As for zeroing out fossil fuels, this seems an unnecessay chimera. Go for substantial reduction with shift to cleaner nat gas
than coal and oil.
Longtooth , December 21, 2017 12:28 am
Lyle,
The information you cite states up front that the data are estimates from models & lab test cells, with nothing citing any, not
one comparison with real world tests on an extended variable population driving in variable traffic over time.
Further more the data states up front that it is based on a Nissan Leaf EV model estimates, which is far, far from real wold
anything, now or in future especially.
Like I said, can any dreamer cite real wold data showing a "four times energy efficiency" (per mile travelled per year on average).of
EV's relative to ICE's?
Even the modeled data uses highway average speed of only 48 mph, which might apply in congested hiway travel, but is otherwise
not near real wold average highway speeds for miles traveled proportioned to total miles traveled, even in the U.S. At real world
highway speeds wind resistance consumes 80% of energy applied at the engine / motor, and at those speeds EV energy consumption
increases relative to ICE's when at at lower speeds.
It should be fairly simple to find real world tests of several EV's driven by average drivers in annual driving uses (not just
daily commutes) conducted over a 2 or 3 year period, no? I mean EV energy input at the plug is easier to track than iCE's total
gasoline consumed over n miles since every EV on the planet keeps on-board data (kWh input).
So where's the data showing real world "4x energy efficiency per mile travelled" than ICE's? Good luck.
Longtooth , December 21, 2017 2:25 am
Them most comprehensive real world EvpV data has been conducted by Belgium on several EV models over two years.
"Electric vehicles and energy consumption based on real world electric vehicle fleet trip and charge data and its impact on
existing EV research models"
It compares the NEDC model (New European Driving Cycle -- the equivalent model estimating tool as used in the U.S.) to real
world energy consumption for EV's.
It concludes real world consumption for EV's ranges from 30% to 60% more than the NEDC estimates, which means the U.S. DOT
estimates Lyle cited for an idealized Nissan Leaf at relatively slow U.S. hiway speeds which gave a factor of 3.5x the energy
efficiency of EV's relative to ICE's is overstated by at least 50%!
So that the real world factor is no more than 1,75x less than half the fictional "four times" being propagandize by dreamers.
The actual average energy consumption was 0.213 kWh/km (approx. 0.35 kWh/mile (I use the close enough approximation of 0.6
miles/km for quickie calcs), & even these average speeds reflected lower speeds than the U.S. composite real world averages.
BTW, I was familiar already with other real world tests also conducted by Belgium earlier on fewer vehicles. I would cite those
tests as well, but my laptop disk drive failed the other day & my data recovery is taking time, though I think I might also have
a copy referenced in one of my emails of a couple of yeas ago. I've been using the wife's damned IPad with its hunt & peck pop-up
keyboard a real pain, since i've been a touch typist since 8th grade.
In any event all real world comprehensive tests all show far lower energy efficiencies for EV,s relative to the same models
applied to ICE's since the U.S. & Europe have decades of experience developing models that are in very close proximity to real
wold energy consumption, but nearly none yet on real wold EV's use.
You can google the above title to get the .pdf file.
The data is based on several vehicles totaling 94.7k km (approx. 57k miles) over two years. The most miles & most EV's, with
the most number of drivers to date.
Also BTW, I know several Tesla owners. They say that if they drive far more conservatively than normal, they get energy
consumptions
close to, but still higher than Tesla says in their literature. If they drive normally however their energy consumption is over
twice the advertised values, and for longer distance highway trips at 70 to 80 mph it's even less efficient per mile so that have
to plan carefully to be near a charging station, & then have to wait in a line for 30 minutes or more, plus another 30 minutes
or more to charge . since the other Tesla EV's all have about the same range coming from the same origination area.
Longtooth , December 21, 2017 3:15 am
FWIW:
Energy consumption is the familiar e = mc^2 where c = acceleration due to gravity & m = mass.
What most don't know however is that vehicle wind resistance at constant speed v requires the vehicle to actually be constantly
accelerating to overcome the wind resistance.
So since the energy consumed increases by the square of acceleration then traveling at constant velocity means you are consuming
energy at the square of acceleration just to maintain that velocity against wind resistance.
And over approx. 30 to 35 mph wind resistance exceeds rolling resistance & increases dramatically at each increment of velocity
after that at an exponential rate.
Thus almost all your vehicle'ss energy consumption is due to the acceleration, rather than its mass. The crying shame of it
all is that general driving habits include the highest rates of acceleration from stop at a stop sign or stop light, not to mention
stop & go traffic congestion.
Longtooth , December 21, 2017 4:25 am
The acceleration energy consumption is one reason that in the future you will see pure autonomous vehicle use (no private drivers)
with the same designs so that they can travel in a train at say 120 mph and consume nearly the same energy as traveling at half
that velocity.
This requires both near bumper to bumper separations AND body designs tailored to minimize wind resistance of any following
vehicle in the train. The only vehicle using most of the energy is the lead vehicle in a train to break the wind resistance.
Thus in future (sometime) autonomous vehicles will all travel in trains of say 20 vehicle minimums at constant velocities of
over 100 mph to maximize road capacities while minimizing energy consumption, & this will be by law of decree either that or everybody
will travel on mass transit vehicles. Say bye-bye to privately owned vehicles & individual drivers -- this will be mandated to
maintain the planet's habitable temperatures to acceptable levels.
Why the high speeds, you ask?
Assume a 20 mile segment of roadway between accessing & egressing it. Vehicle capacity is dictated by how many vehicles can
occupy the road, which is a direct function of vehicle separation distances, so separation distances must be minimized to maximize
vehicle capacity (road carrying capacity).
Next consider that there's zero value if all vehicles are not moving, so road vehilce capacity is then zero in function, even
though the max number of vehicles occupy the road.
Now consider that a vehicle operating at 20 mph occupies a space on that 20 mile segment for 60 minutes, but a vehicle operating
at 120 mph occupies a space on that 20 mile segment for just 10 minutes. Thus 6 times as many vehicles can occupy the 20 mile
segment traveling at 120 mph than at 20 mph, hence the road's vehicle carrying capacity increases linearly with velocity.
Moreover the vehicle traveling at 120 mph can now be put to use for another set of passengers or packages 6 times every hour
rather than just once as with the vehicle traveling at 20 mph, thus carrying 6 times as many people or goods per unit time.
This means demand for vehicles is 1/6th compared to vehicles traveling at 20 mph. So far fewer vehicles required for a given
size population, & far less roadway (lanes), while spending far less time in transit, thus far more productive in every regard.
If you require efficient use of energy, time, & resources then that's the future, so bye-bye "individualism" . it's only a
matter of time, and time is running short.
You can do the calcs yourself for any difference in train vehicle velocities. I just used 20 & 120 mph to make the illustration
more intuitive.
The population will continue to grow, densities of people will continue to increase, & distances required to travel to/from
places of productive endeavors will continue to increase, all the while consuming more & more energy / person to even just maintain
standards of living, much less improve them.
The only real solution is to dramatically increase efficiencies of resources & energy per person with increasing human densitities.
Lyle , December 21, 2017 8:49 am
Note that I was saying that it takes using the most optimistic set of facts from the surveys to get to 4x. Also the surveys
did not assume cold weather which will drastically hurt the electric vehicles as the electric heat will kill the range (or we
can go back to the no heat no cool model of the model T.)
Longtooth , December 21, 2017 2:43 pm
Lyle,
No. It takes the most optimist set of pure assumption, without regard to the actual facts at all, to get to 4x.. eg pure fantasy.
"... By Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author, with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street ..."
Posted on December 4,
2017 by Jerri-Lynn ScofieldBy
Wolf Richter, a San Francisco based executive, entrepreneur, start up specialist, and author,
with extensive international work experience. Originally published at Wolf Street
Today was the monthly moment of truth for automakers in the US. They reported the number of
new vehicles that their dealers delivered to their customers and that the automakers delivered
directly to large fleet customers. These are unit sales, not dollar sales, and they're
religiously followed by the industry.
Total sales in November rose 0.9% from a year ago to 1,393,010 new vehicles, according to
Autodata, which tracks these sales as they're reported by the automakers. Sales of cars dropped
8.2%. Sales of trucks – which include SUVs, crossovers, pickups, and vans – rose
6.6%. Strong replacement demand from the hurricane-affected areas in Texas papered over
weaknesses elsewhere. As always, there were winners and losers.
And one of the losers was Tesla.
First things first: There is nothing wrong with a tiny automaker trying to design, make, and
sell cool but expensive cars that a few thousand Americans might buy every month, and trying to
do so on a battleground dominated by giants. Porsche has been doing that for years. Porsche AG
is owned by Volkswagen AG, which is itself majority-owned by Porsche Automobil Holding SE.
Tesla is out there by itself.
And Tesla has put electric vehicles on the map. That was a
huge feat. EVs have been around since the 1800s, but given the challenges that batteries posed,
they simply didn't catch on until Tesla made EVs cool. Yet Tesla has to buy the battery cells
from battery makers, such as Panasonic.
Tesla isn't quite out there by itself, though. The Wall Street hype machine backs it up,
dousing it with billions of dollars on a regular basis to burn through as fast as it can. This
masterful hype has created a giant market capitalization of about $52 billion, more than most
automakers, including Ford ($50 billion). It's not far behind GM ($61 billion).
But Tesla – which
lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in November in the US, down
18% from a year ago.
There are all kinds of interesting aspects about this.
One: 3,590 vehicles amounts to a market share of only 0.26% , of the 1,393,010 new cars and
trucks sold in the US in November. Porsche outsold Tesla by 55% (5,555 new vehicles).
Two: Tesla doesn't report monthly deliveries . It wants to play with the big boys, but it
doesn't want people to know on a monthly basis just how crummy and by comparison
inconsequential its US sales numbers are. Opaque and dedicated to hype, it refuses to disclose
how many vehicles it delivered that month in the US. So the industry is estimating
Tesla's monthly US sales.
Tesla discloses unit sales data in its quarterly earnings reports, long after everyone has
already forgotten about the months in which they occurred.
Three: So how are Model 3 sales doing? Since Tesla doesn't disclose its monthly deliveries
in the US, the industry is guessing. The assembly line still isn't working. "Manufacturing
bottlenecks," as Tesla calls it, and "manufacturing hell," as Elon Musk calls it, rule the
day.
In Q3, Tesla delivered 220 handmade Model 3's. In October, it delivered about 145 handmade
units. In November, the assembly line still wasn't assembling cars. Inside
EVs estimates that Tesla delivered a whopping 345 units in November.
Four: This is where hype goes to die. In February 2017, Tesla hyped
these Model 3 production numbers for 2017:
Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to
steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth
quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.
November is solidly in the fourth quarter. 5,000 vehicles per week would mean over 20,000 a
month. OK, this is November and not December, so maybe 4,000 a week for a total of 16,000. We
got 345.
Even if the estimate of 345 is off by 100 units up or down, it doesn't even matter. And
December isn't looking much better. Because there is still no mass-produced Model 3.
Five: The bestselling Model S isn't best-selling anymore. Inside EVs estimates that
Tesla delivered 1,335 Model S in the US. This was far outpaced by the humble Model-3-killer the
Chevy Bolt. GM sold 2,987 Bolts in November. Tesla is also estimated to have delivered 1,875
Model X SUVs in the US. It took the Model S and the Model X combined to beat the humble
Bolt.
Six: The unglamorous Model-3-killer is number one . The Chevy Bolt faces no "production
bottlenecks" and no "manufacturing hell." It was rolled out gradually, starting in October 2016
in California and Oregon, with other states being added to the distribution plan over time. By
August 2017, the Bolt was available in all states. By September, 2,632 Bolts were sold in the
US; in October 2,781; and in November 2,987.
The Bolt became the best-selling EV in October and retained that crown in November. Nothing
was even close. November was the ninth month in a row of rising sales, as it should be for a
brand-new vehicle line. GM has sold 20,070 Bolts so far this year.
Seven: But the Bolt is just a flyspeck for GM. It's something to build the foundation for a
larger shift to EVs. It represented just 1.2% of GM's total deliveries in the US in November.
EVs are still just a niche product. And yet, even this flyspeck crushed every Tesla model
without fanfare.
Every automaker is preparing a lineup of EVs. Unlike Tesla, they have their supply chains
down pat, and they know how to get their assembly lines to function, and they know how to
mass-produce vehicles. There are already about two dozen EV models on the market in the US.
Like GM, these automakers are just using their EVs to lay the groundwork for the broader
shift.
Tesla has used two years of hype surrounding the Model 3 as a way to boost its share price.
This allows it to raise many more billions by selling more ludicrously overpriced shares to
gullible investors, and by selling more debt to institutional investors who believe that
Tesla's ability to sell still more ludicrously overpriced shares to gullible retail investors
will in effect guarantee the junk-rated debt they just bought. Few companies have ever been
able to perform that scheme at this masterful level.
Serious delinquencies in subprime auto loans have reached Lehman Moment proportions. But
there is no Financial Crisis. These are the boom times. Read Auto-Loan
Subprime Blows Up Lehman-Moment-Like
Elon Musk is little more than a snake-oil salesman. Not only is there the Tesla fiasco,
but there are his plans to send people to Mars by 2024. If that ever comes to fruition, those
who are sent will almost certainly die in the attempt. We simply do not know enough about the
dangers of space travel, and how to counteract them. Then there is the boondoggle that is the
Hyperloop. That is little more than science fiction, as this video shows: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNFesa01llk
Yes, and on the flip side, becoming supremely efficient at handling a supply chain with
only 25 moving parts sounds like it would be a total walk in the park for automakers who've
mastered handling one with "10000 moving parts" no?? Unless if you believe the PR that says
these giant "archaic" automakers will just stand by and watch as they're being "disrupted"
into oblivion, doubling down on ICE even as the nimble startup that is Tesla moves the market
in a different direction.
Catch phrases, sound bites and "David downs Goliath" tales that play well in the land of
software startups don't transfer well to industrial scale manufacturing. Tesla will require
more than hype to play with the big boys (who have massive balance sheets, supply chain
management,production and distribution know how not to be sneered at), much less become a big
boy itself. The giant automakers are not stupid, they're making their own forays into EVs (as
the chevy bolt case mentioned in the article illustrates) while recognizing that ICE, much as
we'd all like them to disappear tomorrow, will be around for a while to come still, that's
just the reality. While Tesla's potential isn't to be dismissed, it better not suffer from
the type of hubris that will be its undoing in the end.
PS: There was an article here a while back that made a persuasive argument about how
advances in battery technology won't necessarily be the biggest impediment to Tesla (and
other EV manufacturers) hitting their projected production outputs, but rather the locking up
of offtake agreements to guarantee the supply of sufficient raw materials (e.g. cobalt).
Tesla itself – Musk is what he is, opinions differ – has done quite a service
bringing EVs into the limelight. It would be helpful if the idiot market didn't overvalue his
company so much that the car part can't be spun off into the possession of a "real" car
company/companies.
If, for example, GM/Nissan got together and acquired Tesla's car stuff for what it is
really worth (pretty much the company-sized version of that "needs work" Corvette you are
eyeing in the local Craigslist) then with the Bolt/Leaf/Mod3 in a single showroom, and all
the IP now free to distribute among dedicated engineers, you would now have something.
But you can't get it for "what it's worth" due to the market idiocy. "It's the future"
doesn't mean you still won't go broke overpaying for it.
The entire push to EV's is such a misdirection. If we could have a 'do-over', go back to
1910 or so, and have Henry Ford chose and market an electric vehicle rather than a petroleum
powered vehicle, maybe our current situation would be better.
As it is, we're proposing that we take these millions of solo vehicles, all of which are
manufactured out of finite resources, using vast amounts of energy to manufacture and
transport to point of sale, and clogging the streets of our cities with grid-locking traffic,
thus generating calls to build more roads and overpasses, which use more scarce resources. So
what if they all become self-driving? Our local roads would become quieter and cleaner . but
what will happen back along the supply train?
We're all in denial. We don't want to let go of our lifestyle that allows us to get in our
car and drive off toward the horizon, adventure and a better life. Only, the horizon has
become a gigantic stinking tar sands wasteland and the better life a shaky mirage.
There were plenty of electric vehicles around back around 1910. The US had a fairly
extensive trolley system. The auto industry put them out of business, most likely
deliberately.
Now the 'sharing economy' is trying to reinvent the wheel so to speak, but in a far worse
manner than what already existed a century ago. Putting tens or hundreds of millions of
electric cars on the road to be 'shared' by app users is clearly not the answer.
What has been most distressing for me is how many renewable advocates and professionals
have put their hope in the Howard Hughes of the 21st century to help (or single-handedly
according to some) deliver us into a renewable energy future. Turns out he is a confidence
man of the highest order, scatterbrained to all hell, a union buster, tone deaf, possibly
racist/sexist based on employees, etc. etc. As far as being a leader for renewable energy
development he is more Ahab than Jean-Luc Picard.
Give me a federal program over an eccentric billionaire any day.
"Tesla – which lost $619 million in Q3 – delivered only 3,590 vehicles in
November in the US, down 18% from a year ago."
Wolf goes on to note that in February Tesla predicted "to steadily ramp production [of the
Model 3] to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000
vehicles per week at some point in 2018." In other words, their total all-models sales are
running at under 1000 per week, less than one-fifth the production rate they predicted for
the Model 3 alone as recently as February. Making Tesla's valuation downright
Bitcoinesque in its ludicrousness. And like BTC, it will surely ramp quite a ways higher
before the whole manic bubble collapses. And speaking of Bubble 3.0, another Wolf Street
piece:
Simple arrogance. Limited production of high margin luxury vehicles is an entirely
different business than mass production of no margin vehicles. There are 10s of thousands of
mechanical, civil, operational, industrial, and electrical engineers in the Detroit metro.
There are hundreds of independent tool-making firms employing 10s of thousands experienced
machinists. Rust-belt universities and community colleges add 1000s more talented workers
every year. They are capable of a billion dollar factory retooling in a few months. Tesla
lacks talent, experience, suppliers, and experience with suppliers to compete in the
mass-production side of the automotive industry.
Tesla is a very good example of why you don't offshore manufacturing. The relationship
networks between suppliers, experienced staff, and training institutions are incredibly
difficult to recreate.
"... Musk treats Tesla workers like garbage . For some, that's a problem. I don't applaud "pushing" that sort of "boundary" (although its common with Silicon Valley firms; see Amazon). ..."
"... Tesla's Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries ..."
"... even with mirrors ..."
"... interior design ..."
"... truck test driver ..."
"... it could compete on cost with trains. ..."
"... Please permit me a moment of dystopian tongue-in-cheek ;-) ..."
In this simple post I'm going to consider the Tesla Semi truck -- which Tesla CEO Elon Musk
announced November 16 to predictably credulous
laudable coverage , along with statements that
were said to be orders but were, in fact, not -- as a vehicle , and not a
financial vehicle[1]. (I also won't address the role for which the Semi may be most
appropriate: Line haul, short haul, port duty, etc., though I may address these supply chain
issues at a later date.) First, I'll look at the Semi's cab and wheels; then, I'll look at the
Semi at the truck stop and on the dock. In each case I'll rely heavily on the informed
commentary of the NC commentariat, as well as the wisdom of Hurbert Horan. First, though,
here's a look at the thing:
Starting with the cab, I'll requote this, from AutoBlog :
[W]e'll start with the central seating position.
A second reason I picked the image above: It shows that central seating position
clearly.
I don't see how that helps a trucker. I already get "a commanding view of the road" in a
traditional truck because I sit six feet above traffic. What I need is a commanding view of
my own truck, which the central seating position compromises. The worst [1]blind spot in a
tractor is next to the doors; in the Tesla Semi, I can't lean over to see if there's a Toyota
Corolla camped out beside me.
I just hope I'm not in that Toyota Corolla, even if it is a robot car!
The central seating position hampers my commanding view when I need that view most: when I
[2]back up. For any backing maneuver, I watch both sides of the trailer in my mirrors to make
sure I don't clobber anything, or I lean out of the truck to watch the trailer as I back.
Being able to physically watch the trailer – not camera images on screens – can
be the difference between making a clean back-up or making an insurance claim.
Furthermore, I can't see around [3]trucks in front of me without pulling halfway into
another lane. When I need to [4]exchange paperwork with the guard at a terminal, or the
police, I can't lean out the window to do so. Speaking of which, I have to believe one of the
windows on the Tesla Semi [5]rolls down, but I can't figure out which one. If, as it appears
from the renderings, the windows only vent, well that's unacceptable.
I've helpfully numbered the driver use cases that seem not to have been considered in the
design of the Tesla Semi's cab; five ([5]) seems like rather a lot, particularly since I get
the sense that the writer was just getting started.
NC commenter altandmain raises a second issue, again, visible from the Semi image: Clearance
(
see here as well ), also visible in the photograph above:
Look at the front and rear axles. It was no doubt for the sake of aerodynamics, but a
production version would have to have it raised or else the semi simply cannot operate as is.
Particularly in [1]hilly terrain, even trucks today can get stuck on the crest of a very
steep hill (it does happen in the industry). Very simply put, the production version cannot
be as aerodynamic.
[2]Snow will also be an issue with low clearance. This might be a big problem in Canada,
the northern US, Alaska, and northern Europe. Russia too, if Tesla ever intends to sell to
the Russians. Also, notice that the rear wheels are concealed. This could be an issue [3]if
the vehicle is stuck in the snow (ever see a car get stuck in the snow)? Trucks have more
ground pressure and as a result, are at a larger risk for "getting stuck" .
There must also be the ability to attach [4]moose bumpers. That is necessary in Canada and
northern US. I did not see anything on the images that would imply that a bumper provision
was available.
Here, too, I have helpfully numbered the use cases that the Tesla Semi's designers ignored;
four (4) also seems like rather a lot. No snow in Fremont, California, eh? Or moose, for that
matter.
Now, the suggestion has been made that getting us lost in the weeds like I just did is a
clever scheme by Tesla. Hubert writes:
Objective is to get people discussing minor design/implementation details in order to
convince people that these vehicles are inevitable and only a few years away from mass
production and widespread acceptance, and to distract from the fact that the underlying
technology doesn't exist, and even if it did the underlying economics are abysmal.
Plausible, but to me, this is a variation of The Eternal Question in DC: "Stupid, or
evil?"[2]. And frankly, I'd consider going with stupid. Tesla is a creature of Silicon Valley,
and there are plenty of software types who'd try -- and even succeed! I've watched it
happen! -- to take a wireframe that "looked cool" all the way through to production while
ignoring any and all User Interface/User Experiece inputs, out of sheer arrogance and
indifference to the needs of others. And when I look at all the obvious use cases Tesla missed
-- nine really obvious ones, after a pretty shallow examination -- it looks like one of those
software types was in charge of this project.[3] (Lots of these types work on the Internet of
Things.)
The Truck Stop and the Dock
One thing I've noticed about trucks is that they do a lot of parking and backing up and
maneuvering around obstacles. That makes mirrors very important. The Semi doesn't have mirrors.
It has cameras that display on screens. From fan site Teslarati :
Because the Tesla Semi doesn't have any side mirrors, video from these cameras likely
provide the driver with a birds eye view of both sides of the truck as seen from the interior
touchscreen displays. Kman also discovered a row of cameras mounted below and above the
massive windshield, and even more cameras discreetly mounted within Tesla Semi's headlight
assembly.
Some docks are easy to back into and the cameras would be fine for those. But a large
number of docks are extremely challenging to back into. Lighting at night causes glare and
cameras would have trouble with that, even with mirrors you occasionally have trouble. Really
difficult docks are the covered ones where you must back into a dark building from the sunny
outdoors and hit a dock while narrowly missing poles, walls and doors. The only way to see
anything is to get out and look and then stick your head out the window and look straight
back while backing in. The Tesla appears useless for that. Warehouses in underground caves
are especially difficult in this regard and you may have to back up quite a distance around
obstacles like rock pillars. I could tell you some stories about long distance backing a
semi, sometimes I do it from the highway up a half mile of twisting County road to my
driveway.
Altandmain makes an additional point. No backups:
one issue I see is that there are no manual backups. A camera can be covered by mud. If
you own a car and you have a backup camera on your car, you have some idea of the
limitations. There should be mirrors. Otherwise, the cameras don't always work in all
conditions. Plus the camera can die or face other problems.
No backups? For a computer system? Kidding, right?
And then, besides the cameras, there are those screens (Indignant programmer: "But
I work with screens all the time!") Autoblog once more
:
Another reason to have physical mirrors: so I can turn off, or turn down, the two giant
screens in the cab (screens which, by the way, hinder my view of the corners of my truck).
The light required to provide a useful camera image at night would kill my eyes during a full
drive shift. Doing an 11-hour stint in a dark cockpit in the glow of large digital screens
only works in anime and "Battlestar Galactica." I had one computer in both trucks I drove,
and unless I was using it, I turned the screen off.
I gained a tremendous respect for people who drive trucks for a living. It's difficult and
demanding work, and there are great dangers in driving an 80,000 lb vehicle in heavy traffic,
rain, snow, and city streets. The pay is low, the stress high, and long-haul drivers are
frequently away from home for weeks at a time. Despite all this, the truckers I met had
tremendous professionalism and pride in their work, and saw themselves as part of a
collective effort to get everyone (not just their own load) where they are going quickly and
safely.
Those are Musk's users, and if the Tesla is to be a real product -- instead of a bright
shiny object[4] dangled before the Wall Street touts analysts to detract from
the
Model 3's production woes , not that I'm cynical -- he could start by listening to them. If
you hose away all the technobabblish froth, and consider the truck as a truck , it
becomes readily apparent he hasn't. I'm sure I'll have more to say on this topic in the future,
especially on larger issues like batteries, charging, and the supply chain generally, but I
thought it was important to kick the Semi's tires first. As usual, comments from drivers and
allied professions most welcome!
It's probably best to view Thursday night's truck-and-pony show Hawthorne as a bit of
savvy marketing move, plus a down payment on the future of transport. "Given the production
issues around Tesla and its significant cash burn, it might be easy to discount this
announcement as more marketing than substance, but I expect Tesla will build this truck
eventually," said Michael Ramsey, an analyst at Gartner. "If the future is electric -- and it
likely will be at some point -- then laying the groundwork now is not a waste of time."
I'd expect more puffery from Gartner. Or perhaps that is the puffery?
Great summary. Ive seen a lot of articles telling me I should be afraid of autonomous
vehicles. I also s*** myself when I saw the cgi video of this bully steaming past a sedan on
a thin two lane road.
Maybe ill spend less leisure time on the road, leave it for work.
I mean to pose neurotic question: could they be scaring me on purpose?
While it may not be perfect, I applaud Tesla for trying to push boundaries and move us
away from fossil fuels. Even if Tesla fails as a company, they are pushing the traditional
car companies to offer electric cars at a much faster rate than anyone expected. I have a
sister in law in Texas whose family made their fortune in the oil business. She is
considering buying a Model X because it is the new status symbol. Well done Tesla.
Musk treats Tesla workers like garbage
. For some, that's a problem. I don't applaud "pushing" that sort of "boundary" (although its
common with Silicon Valley firms; see Amazon).
I haven't researched how electric vehicles net out environmentally.
Dear Lambert, if you have "proof" that Tesla workers are being treated like garbage, you
need to show us. It is NOT "common" in Silicon Valley to treat people like garbage. My wife
worked at Apple. She commuted by train to the valley. She was picked up at the train by
Apple, free of charge. They provide free child daycare. They have an extensive cafeteria
where employees eat very well at low rates. Their wages are above average and "flex hours"
allow employees to arrive any time in a wide window. Maybe you were referring to another
Silicone Valley since Amazon's headquarters is in Washington State. Please try to do more
research before you rush to publish.It makes you appear to be sort of "pushing something".
P.S. Tesla is not in Silicon Valley. It's in the east bay, Fremont to be exact.
Do consider reading the two links I supplied; feel free to take issue with them. After
that, consider getting your knee seen to.
* * *
On "Silicon Valley," let's not be tediously literal-minded. Wikipedia :
"Silicon Valley" has come to have two definitions: a geographic one, referring to Santa
Clara County, and a metonymical one, referring to all high-tech businesses in the Bay Area
or even in the United States.
Here's the definition of metonymy . I hope this helps.
I mentioned this vehicle with a relative, who has some experience with trucking (as do
others, actually). I brought up the central seating position, and he had the exact same
reaction. It's almost like Tesla is not concerned with testing this out with people who have
practical experience with trucking.
I am not kidding, or proud, when I say that I had the idea for center seating in a car
when I was five years old. That doesn't say much about this truck.
The only cars that I can think of with center seating are racing vehicles like the Mclaren
F1.
I've been thinking about this, and if I invert the bugs into features, it means the "Semi"
is designed for (future) automation, and the driver is sitting in the center to handle any
emergencies, so ultimately we're looking at a robot truck. (Which is still dumb, because that
Toyota is an emergency.)
But it's really not clear to me that robot trucks are a thing, any more than robot cars,
if we look at the use cases readers keep supplying. Of course, the object could be that every
business not accessible by robot truck should wither and die .
Everybody is focused on visual mirrors and cameras. However, if this is to be
semi-autonomous or autonomous, then other sensors like radar will be necessary and may be the
justification for the center seating. The radar should provide continuous coverage around the
truck in all but the worst weather conditions. So the camera images would provide a visual
depiction of the object, but the radar would tell the driver where it is and should eliminate
blind spots. If needed, they could even do IR sensors or night vision cameras as well.
The only way a central driving position makes sense is if Tesla plans to make the vehicle
autonomous from the very beginning. That way the 'driver' is just another passenger,
conveniently redundant in the glorious digital future! All the issues mentioned about cameras
would apply to self driving as well. Why do I suddenly feel even less comfortable with the
prospect of sharing the road or loading dock with self driving trucks in bad weather?
Looking at the issues pointed out, it's not just the truck driver expected to be
eliminated from the road.
"Why do I suddenly feel even less comfortable with the prospect of sharing the road or
loading dock with self driving trucks in bad weather?"
These appear to be designs that are expected to work with no human drivers on the road, with
ideal conditions being other autonomous vehicles on the roads (with infrastructure changed to
adapt to them).
They'll weed out human drivers through insurance costs
So, when it's time, that's where all the infrastructure money will go! (as opposed to,
say, schools, or public wifi, or )
> They'll weed out human drivers through insurance costs
Of course they will (though I don't know how you do actuarial calculations for
robot AIs. Perhaps they'll just jigger the numbers for the desired outcome )
I have seen quite a few 18-wheelers buried deep in the woods along interstates in the
northeast over the past year. I think the human drivers are working very long hours and
literally falling asleep at the wheel. That is the only explanation for 18-wheelers that have
gone 100 feet off the road along a flat, straight interstate and not stopped until only the
rear door of the trailer was sticking out form the trees. In August, I had one four-hour
drive where I saw three of these. It was pretty scary because there were a lot of trucks
around me.
It's one thing to rush to market a concept "with bugs." It's another to rush to market a
concept that's not even designed to work (center seating; no mirrors; low bottom-clearance)
!
See, when the truck gets stuck in the snow, all the little robots will jump out and lift
the truck up with their tiny little metal hands. Same with waving away the moose.
There are also fundamental technical issues with the announced truck: its entire power
subsystem is simply unfeasible with current technology. The article Tesla's Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries gives an explanation.
And when I look at all the obvious use cases Tesla missed -- nine really obvious ones,
after a pretty shallow examination -- it looks like one of those software types was in
charge of this project.
Actually Jerome Guillen, formerly of Daimler Trucks North America, led development of the
Tesla Semi. Previously he led development of DTNA's popular Freightliner Cascadia line of
trucks. Shallow examination indeed.
I have no interest in Tesla's financial success -- arguably the opposite -- but I have
taken a test drive in a Tesla Semi, talked to some of its developers and prospective
customers, experienced its acceleration and turns and I consider it to be a commercially
viable product, perhaps as soon as 2019. We'll see.
I've been a loyal reader of NC, including the comments, for much of the last 10 years. I
greatly enjoyed the Hubert Horan series of articles on Uber's economics; virtually of his
points rang true with respect to my knowledge as a practitioner in the ground vehicle
technology sector. But NC's recent expedition into technology-based criticism of Tesla and
vehicle automation strikes me as overreach. Strong ethical and economic criticism of these
subjects is ripe for the making -- and would be consistent with my reading of NC's general
editorial perspective and leadership -- and yet the temptation to deem oneself more knowing
than scores of technical practitioners is apparently what's driving the sector coverage most
prominent of late. A few related points:
– automated and electric vehicles are designed for specific use cases
– the Tesla Semi's center seating may indeed be gimmicky but still practical in many
use cases; mirrors can certainly be added to expand the scope of viable use cases, with a
small sacrifice in aerodynamics
– to suggest that any vehicle as a whole is somehow not "real" because its prototype
interior design seems gimmicky or otherwise flawed is to throw the baby out with the
bathwater
– to suggest that a Tesla vehicle specifically is not "real" because Elon Musk is an
arrogant and/or desperate CEO is to ignore a history of overpromising but eventually
delivering; even in bankruptcy, the vehicle designs will remain
– to be reflexively against partially-automated electric vehicles powered by solar
(see Tesla Semi charging station plans) and promulgated by Silicon Valley technologists is
fine, and maybe wise if it coincides with opposition to resource-intensive human industry in
general, but it would be more interesting at least to this reader to see that vision
evaluated against the alternatives, and not just damned out of skepticism
– finally, to cherrypick the members of the commentariat you say you rely on is
off-putting and potentially a disservice
Well said. Although it is certainly possible that many of Musk's ideas will not come to
fruition in their current form it seems likely to me that he is moving the mark, as noted
above, toward a good future. IMHO the carping about the inefficiencies experienced by
innovators – many false starts and wrong turns – society never progresses without
them.
Musk is an extremely innovative marketer, that's true. However, I don't think that
"innovation" (the Juicero) or "progress" (Fukushima) are concepts that should be accepted
unexamined.
One of the things that I've been reading quite a bit lately, beside your observations, is
that these types of commercial vehicles are not intended to be used for "last mile"
deliveries. The odds are very strong that there would be outskirt warehousing built that
would take into consideration the negatives like loading dock access, etc.
Warehouses are relatively inexpensive to build, Amazon can have one up, running and fully
functional within a year without batting an eyelash.
I don't find "autonomous" vehicles a good thing for a number of reasons (many of them
covered here), but they will be everywhere soon enough at some level of autonomy, and just
like infrastructure being built and/or modified for present day cars and trucks, future
infrastructure, as it is built out, will take commercial autonomous vehicles and their
requirements/limitations into consideration, particularly considering the strong drive in our
times to reduce both human labor and its cost.
It may not be Tesla, but BAE, Mercedes, Volvo,and others are already well on the road to
autonomous, electric/hybrid commercial vehicles.
Just out of curiosity, in what circumstances is the center seating position practical? The
column referenced in the above article had a very pointed critique of that feature, based on
real-world experience.
If the model is that the driver will just sit on the throne, waiting for the robots to
tell him there's an emergency, I think people doing human factors analysis for aircraft
pilots might wish to have a word.
Companies that don't have to make a profit have a different idea of what's "commercially
viable" than the rest of us. Trucking companies have to make a profit, and in a low-margin
business.
I would hardly call "NC's recent expedition into technology-based criticism of Tesla and
vehicle automation" being a case of overreach. Remember, one day we may be seeing these
things come barrelling up behind us in our rear-view mirrors like something out of "Duel" so
if people take a closer look at Ford or Toyota, then why should Tesla get a free pass? Tesla
cops a lot of flak for its awful treatment of the people that work for it and not listening
to them so if people, especially truckers, are looking a a concept design (probably with
input from the marketing droids) and saying "not gunna work" as is, maybe it is time to
listen to the people that will actually have to deal with these things. There are other
problems external to this design as well.
Not long ago there was a story of some hapless city in the US where one of those autonomous
cars was being tested out. It wasn't working out so well for the car as the roads had been
run down and lines were not being repainted so the car was having difficulty recognizing
where it was supposed to go. The car exec was complaining bitterly to the city officials how
they should be repairing & painting more. Now I am not going to go into the aspect of how
corporations have rigged things where they are putting in little or no money into taxes
leading to budget shortfalls across the nation – and thus cutbacks into such things as
road maintenance (that is another rant for another time) but how are these you-beaut trucks
supposed to navigate on roads that are being increasingly being run down? California Bob
brought up the valid point of crossing wildlife as well.
Also, here in Australia a coupla years ago the trucking industry was busted for forcing their
drivers to exceed the speed limits to get cargoes delivered. The trucking companies were
regarding the fines as a cost-of-doing-business but the drivers were dosing themselves up to
the gills on drugs to stay awake and alert. Would these autonomous trucks be programed to
have trucks with special cargo (read Amazon) exceed speed limits to meet deadlines? It's all
fun and profit until the first autonomous truck wipes out a school bus. The only solution
that I can see to help avoid collisions with these things would be to force all cars to have
transponders like aircraft so that these trucks know who and what is around them. And even
then with aircraft you still get midairs.
> temptation to deem oneself more knowing than scores of technical practitioners
I'm uncertain how looking to actual truck drivers means that I "deem myself more knowing."
Unless you don't regard truck drivers as "technical practitioners," of course (but see the
Conclusion) which would drive home my point on over-valuing software engineering rather
neatly.
> Acutally, Guillen, formerly of Daimler Trucks North America, led development of the
Tesla Semi. Previously he led development of DTNA's popular Freightliner Cascadia line of
trucks. Shallow examination indeed.
Actually, I wrote:
And when I look at all the obvious use cases Tesla missed -- nine really obvious ones,
after a pretty shallow examination -- it looks like one of those software types
was in charge of this project.[3]
You are familiar with the American idiom "looks like"? Surely -- speaking of shallow --
it's possible that even the most gifted mechanical engineer could produce results that "look
like" they were produced by an arrogant and ignorant software engineer? Much in the same way
that a master chef could produce a dish that "looks like" it came out of a reheated plastic
bag?
* * *
To your other points:
> – automated and electric vehicles are designed for specific use cases
It would be helpful if you would adduce the use cases for which the "Semi" is actually
useful, as designed. I agree that you can simply turn bugs into requirements; no snow, no
backing up, and so forth
> – the Tesla Semi's center seating may indeed be gimmicky but still practical in
many use cases; mirrors can certainly be added to expand the scope of viable use cases, with
a small sacrifice in aerodynamics
Yes, the product as released can be redesigned to eliminate all the sloppiness and
stupidity. Is that your point? The real issue is why the design was released as it was.
They're actually trying to market the thing, as you know; it's not a prototype or a mockup or
an alpha version.
> – to suggest that any vehicle as a whole is somehow not "real" because its
prototype interior design seems gimmicky or otherwise flawed is to throw the baby out with
the bathwater
If you think adequate clearance for snow is a "gimmick," I suggest you consult with actual
drivers.
> – to suggest that a Tesla vehicle specifically is not "real" because Elon Musk
is an arrogant and/or desperate CEO is to ignore a history of overpromising but eventually
delivering; even in bankruptcy, the vehicle designs will remain
Er, no. "To suggest A is to ignore B" just is not so. The vehicle could well be (A) not
"real" as serious and knowledgeable people in the field suggest and Tesla could (B)
ultimately deliver something. As for eventually delivering, your claim is (for example) that
because Lockheed delivered the P-38 (a prop-driven fighter), it also would have delivered the
Lockheed L-2000 (a jet supersonic transport). I think it makes more sense to make concrete
evaluations of products, rather than resort to vague hand-waving about company history. As
for the designs, why assume they're any good?
> – to be reflexively against partially-automated electric vehicles powered by
solar (see Tesla Semi charging station plans) and promulgated by Silicon Valley technologists
is fine, and maybe wise if it coincides with opposition to resource-intensive human industry
in general, but it would be more interesting at least to this reader to see that vision
evaluated against the alternatives, and not just damned out of skepticism
Ah, yes, the old "the author wrote a book about seagulls, but I've got to give it low
marks because I would rather it were about penguins." Which is all fine, and other posts will
be forthcoming. (The question begging here is: "just damned out of skepticism," and
"reflexively against," and the answer to the first is that I adduce data. The answer to the
second is that it's an obvious ad hominem.)
I appreciate your willingness to accept the original critical comment.
The real issue is why the design was released as it was.
I'd start with fuel savings / range extension. As presented*, the Tesla Semi has a drag
coefficient of 0.36, compared to a Cd of ~0.6-1.0 of typical tractor-trailers (e.g.
Peterbilt's aerodynamic 579 with a box trailer at the low end). This is an important design
factor because about 2/3 of tractor-trailers' fuel consumption at highway speeds goes to
overcoming aerodynamic drag. (* As presented: including with just-above-grade skirting that,
if it's inflexible, would need to be removed to avoid damage at railroad crossings, etc.) I'd
suppose -- all I can do -- that the greater curvature of the windshield and the inset from
the wheelbase at the level where the driver sits, which contribute to drag reduction, both
support moving the driver's position towards the center of the cab. Once the designers
elected to use video screens -- not just as an alternative to mirrors, but also to cover
blind spots that are problematic even with mirrors -- then they may have figured
that center positioning would create adequate and well-balanced space for large-screen
displays on both sides of the driver. I say all this to answer your question. I also
acknowledge the trade-offs of unfamiliarity and problem-causing for drivers, and uncertain
(at least to us) performance in heavy weather. I think though that Tesla is probably aware of
these tradeoffs yet is banking on (has reason to believe?) that they will be mitigated by
driver training and counteracted by coverage of blind spots left uncovered by mirrors alone
(notable that there is no mention in the AutoBlog piece that tractor mirrors leave blind
spots)
If you think adequate clearance for snow is a "gimmick," I suggest you consult with
actual drivers.
I don't think clearance is a gimmick; I was plainly (but unfairly?) characterizing your
view of the interior design of the vehicle. Indeed I have spoken with many a driver
about clearance with respect to trailer skirting (again, this is my business!). Ramps and
railroad crossings pose problems even where snow does not. Thermoplastic skirting can be
quite flexible and hold up to a lot of wear and tear. Flexibility though not be of any help
when turning in the snow. I haven't had the chance to look closely at Tesla's materials, but
agreed that they look precariously low to the ground. Some skirting is readily removable
(5-15 minutes). Again I don't know about Tesla's.
I think it makes more sense to make concrete evaluations of products, rather than resort
to vague hand-waving about company history. As for the designs, why assume they're any
good?
My point is that this evaluation does not seem well-hardened. As for company history, you
recount only back to last month's Model S news. Is that also hand-waving or something else?
In any case, I agree that past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
It would be helpful if you would adduce the use cases for which the "Semi" is actually
useful.
– Short- to regional-haul / out-and-back runs with ranges up to ~400 miles (no
sleeper option yet presented); charging station locations will be a big factor in identifying
suitable regional haul routes
– Urban areas with emission-mitigation rules/goals
– Confident, experienced drivers interested in learning / using new equipment (same
approach used with adoption of forward collision avoidance systems); converse, don't ask
drivers who aren't comfortable using screens for docking to do so. These parameters are a
function of driver interest / acceptance and training, not absolute good or bad fits for the
vehicle.
– Since I don't know how flexible the skirting is or whether it's removable, I could
hardly guess at whether grade variance or snow will be significant limitations
– For peak vehicle efficiency, private / dedicated routes with limited or no trailer
switching to hold together the tractor-trailer aero package
– Unless and until drivers are comfortable operating the truck in heavy weather, urban
driving, etc., don't adopt for routes where these conditions are common
I'm sure that doesn't cover it all but it's an honest effort. I don't think the vehicle is
perfect. It's just better in significant ways, based on my own adducement of data, than any
truck I've ever observed -- in fact ridden in. And if I were a blind technology enthusiast,
than it would be surpassingly strange for me to spend so much of my leisure time at this
site. More data to adduce.
In closing I'd like to add again that I appreciate your thoughtful response, as well as
the perspectives of others who have addressed issues including labor practices and sharing
the road with robo-trucks; all important, and not my focus in these comments about technology
coverage.
> converse, don't ask drivers who aren't comfortable using screens for docking to do
so
Since you have some expertise in this field, can you some current examples in the
transportation world where backing-up or any parking is done with ONLY screens? Some cars and
trucks have backup screens, but this only as supplemental assist. I don't know about the
aviation world, but the airliners I have seen backed-up do so with the "human assist" of guys
walking behind waving orange "stick lights!" Ocean liners have "navigation cameras," but I
don't think captains have ever tried to dock their ocean liner from their windowless quarters
with no other human assist. And by the way, Autoagri, have you ever driven a big truck?
Unless you have access to some interesting prototypes, and are a " truck test driver
, I don't think you have ever backed up a big truck using just a screen.
You know what kind of vehicle I think Tesla ought to design? School buses !
School buses run relatively short routes, shorter hours than city buses, and are parked at
the bus barn every night, which would be great for charging. Blue Bird has already unveiled a
design for it's ubiquitous yellow student-mover. Why shouldn't Tesla dip a toe in that
market?
You may be onto something. Every lawyer's nightmare is defending a client who
center-punched a school bus full of nuns. Said lawyers will influence system design, hence,
school buses may very well be the safest way to travel soon.
Perhaps for the European and Japanese market – but given that Betsy DeVos is
Secretary of Education, and the lamentable state of public education infrastructure in the
United States in general, I can't see too many orders being placed for school buses in the
near future, at least. Since the current U.S. military budget is $611 billion (CNBC), it
would make more sense, fiscally, to produce electric military vehicles.
I'm not sure if that calls for a sarcasm tag or not. . .
bid purchase by govt, razor thin margins historically.
others are heavily into this. damlier owns thomas bus in NC, and is putting big $ into
electrifying.
Although not so much when dealing with tractor trailers, I do rely on seeing the movement
of the driver's face/head in their mirror when deciding to pass on the driver's side in my
car or on my bike.
I don't know, but would guess that it is very little, how much thought has gone into the
reliance upon what would be face to face communications that occur very often between vehicle
drivers to signal awareness and negotiate whether or not one has clear passage. This as
everyone knows occurs at traffic signal-less intersections on regular basis. One even relies
on subtle signals of intermittent usage of turn signals as when one turns it off to give up
on a particular lane change until the other vehicle passes. Head movement (eye movement is
more problematical as they are not all that visible) of the other driver as well as your own
is a communications tool when driving and negotiating traffic. Autonomous vehicles would
simply barge along on basis of what it thinks is safe without a clue as to what would be
normally very predictable behavior of other vehicles on the road, the drivers of which
communicate with head movement and sometimes by nudging their vehicle in a direction that
says intent.
I see myself flailing madly at another car, trying to give them the right of way at a four
way stop, not knowing that it is a robot with zero awareness.
> It will be your fault if you are run over by one of these robots.
Yes, that's where we're going to come out. OTOH, none of our young people can afford cars,
and many don't seem to want them, so perhaps this is a problem that will solve itself.
I don't know, but would guess that it is very little, how much thought has gone into the
reliance upon what would be face to face communications that occur very often between
vehicle drivers to signal awareness and negotiate whether or not one has clear passage.
This is one of the few cases I can remember where this aspect of autonomous vehicles has
been discussed.
Bad as it is for car and bicycle drivers, the situation is worse for pedestrians who are
interacting with cars. We have all had the situation where we are trying to decide whether to
walk in front of a stopped car, and relying on eye contact with the driver to conclude that
it safe to proceed. This happens almost daily. Would anyone on foot care to cross in front of
a stopped car if there were no human driver? Or if the driver were obviously heads-down,
tweeting on his phone and the vehicle under command of an AI driving system? This extremely
common situation gives me the chills.
Driving is very much a social and human activity, something the autonomous vehicle people
can't seem to get.
You'd think a central issue would be the difference in fuel costs versus electricity costs
per mile, and that those numbers would be prominent in any discussion of the virtues of
electric vs. fossil-fueled semis – it's such an obvious point, that a lack of
discussion is really disappointing.
Obviously, the fossil fuel industry doesn't like the idea of the loss of revenue from
trucking fuel sales that electric semis would represent; but an analysis of the scale of such
losses seems appropriate. A little searching turns up Musk's claims:
More significantly for trucking companies, Musk said that a standard diesel truck would
be 20% more expensive to operate than a Tesla truck: $1.26 per mile compared to $1.51 per
mile.
Musk said that if Tesla Semis were to drive in a convoy, in which trucks can draft off
each other while letting computers and sensors keep them just feet apart at highway speeds,
it could compete on cost with trains. "This beats rail," said Musk, throwing up an 85 cents
per mile cost. – USA Today
So if these claims are incorrect, I'd expect to see a lot of push-back. Does this mean
that's an accurate estimate, or is this just a topic that fossil fuel investors don't want to
talk about?
Currently diesel accounts for about 21% of the petroleum-based fuel consumed in the United
States, so a significant shift to electric semis would seriously impact demand for fossil
fuels. Given that so many fossil fuel production strategies – fracking, tar sands, etc.
– are near-margin in terms of profitability (i.e. if production costs are on the order
of $60 a barrel, greater than current crude oil pricing, they are losing money), any slump in
global fossil fuel demand makes a significant fraction of these strategies economic
losers.
This also brings up the topic of how investment funds operate – if they're investing
in fossil fuels, and also in auto and truck manufacturers, then where do they see the balance
sheet – i.e. if they choose to invest in electric vehicles, then the smart move is to
also get out of their fossil fuel investments – but if they're heavily into fossil
fuels, the last thing they want to see is truck manufacturers shifting over to electric
manufacturing. Given that the large shareholders appoint the corporate board members who make
such decisions – well, is this really a winning strategy in the long run?
This is also a strong argument for employees of the corporation being the majority
shareholders, so that their company can remain competitive as the world transitions to
electric vehicles. Given that China is going to implement bans on fossil fueled-vehicles (for
reasons of local air pollution), demand for fossil fuels and fossil-fueled vehicles has
nowhere to go but down. This doesn't bode well for expensive fossil fuel production projects,
either.
Oil refineries have a huge degree of control over what they convert crude oil into, but it
does depend on the characteristics of the crude oil – lighter is easier. But this is
certainly a problem with the heavier crudes (tar sand, high-sulfur heavy, etc), which already
require lots of processing and have huge up-front production costs. The solution then is to
stop producing heavy crudes – leave them in the ground.
Well, trains run on rails that are privately funded, trucks on the Interstate only pay a
portion of the cost of the highway. In fact, if the Interstate carried just passenger car
traffic the cost of road building would be substantially cheaper. (The depth of road base and
concrete/asphalt is a function of the weight and number of vehicles being carried.)
Putting 40,000 lb. trucks in close convoy is not only dangerous (accidents happen) but
puts increased stress on the road surface/base. And convoys are only legal in a few states.
(Nevada allows them but only on the Interstate and only in restricted zones.)
A final point: trains are not powered directly by diesel engines. A modern locomotive is
run on electric motors connected directly to the drive-wheels; the electricity comes from a
diesel powered electric generator that runs very efficiently between about 75 and 250 RPM.
Yeah, they are the original hybrid vehicle.
Yes, always look for the subsidy. The public will end up paying for every single one of
the infrastructural improvements needed to get robot cars and robot trucks to work.
Seems like a shift to electric vehicles only makes ecological sense if there's a
corresponding shift to renewable/non-polluting ways of generating electricity. Otherwise
you're just burning more fossil fuels to make the additional electricity needed, maybe with
less overall efficiency than you'd get by having the vehicles burn the fossil fuels
directly
> if Tesla Semis were to drive in a convoy, in which trucks can draft off each other
while letting computers and sensors keep them just feet apart at highway speeds
Sounds like "civilians" on the road might have a hard time with this. There's enough
resistance to adding additional trailers already.
On the economics generally, I'm sure there will be plenty of pushback. As I said in the
beginning of this post, I wanted to focus on the Semi as a vehicle . I like
assessing the quality of a work product, since (IMNSHO) it's the best possible indication of
the nature of the institution that produced it (at least for a humanities major).
The potential of 'convoying' has been researched for quite some time – it was a
central part of the European Prometheus Projec t,
arguably the first major study into autonomous vehicles. Its many years ago since I sat in
lectures on transport engineering, but I recall that there were very impressive fuel savings
reached with convoying, although it was considered at the time that the technology wasn't
established enough to go commercial (this was back in the early 1990's) and there were of
course regulatory obstacles. Its a very obvious potential advantage for partially automonous
trucks, especially in areas with big distances and good quality highways.
This is one (of many) reasons why I think we'll see semi-autonomous trucks on the road
many years before it will ever be viable for cars. The potential economic benefits are very
real while the technological obstacles for fixed route deliveries are significantly less than
for private cars or Ubers or whatever.
There was, a few years back (I believe well before any passenger self-driving cars were
allowed on the street), a cross-europe automated convoy experiment. It didn't raise much news
as I remember.. I agree with you that truckies should be the one worried, not taxi drivers
– althought the system I heard of as most promising was as you say semi-autonomous,
basically a highway-based convoys, where trucks would split off/merge in closer to the local
delivery. Sort of not dissimilar to loading the truck(s) on a train ;)
PlutoniumKun, I've read a lot of your comments about the European Prometheus Project and
would love to pick your brain about it and "autonomous" vehicles.
Don't suppose there's anyway to reach you over email or something?
Musk said that if Tesla Semis were to drive in a convoy, in which trucks can draft off
each other while letting computers and sensors keep them just feet apart at highway speeds,
it could compete on cost with trains. "This beats rail," said Musk, throwing up an 85 cents
per mile cost. – USA Today
Until one of them hits a deer. Somehow, I doubt his fancy computers can override the laws
of physics sufficiently to immediately stop a convoy of trucks driving feet apart at 60+ mph.
There are all kinds of safety reasons that hypermiling is illegal.
There is one other very big problem that Tesla has.
They have this far been selling to customers who are very enthusiastic about Tesla cars.
These buyers, although small in numbers are very vocal about their car choice and quite
willing to overlook the flaws of existing Tesla cars. One quite bluntly confessed to me that
fit and finish does not match a car like the top trim of the Chevy Impala, much less a luxury
vehicle in the same price category as the Model S or X. The reliability issues have been
forgiven, as gave the missed deadlines and the fact that the self driving feature is way
below true self driving capabilities.
This will be a lot more difficult in the B2B market, where the customers are from a very
conservative industry. If there are major flaws between the concept and the reality, that
could cost sales. Likewise, the long warranty that Tesla is promising – there will be a
lot higher standards in the trucking industry because downtime is expensive (simply put if
the truck is not on the road, it is not making money and is actually costing money in
repairs, along with depreciation costs).
This is also true of the Model 3. The lower you go down the price chain, the less
forgiving the general public is. If the Model 3 wants mainstream appeal, then it will have to
have rock solid reliability. Compounding the issue is that Tesla right now does not have that
much cash to try to get the car to market and to try to implement a truck which would be
another very expensive proposition.
'"Anime and 'Battlestar Galactica.'" Ouch!' That is a key comment. The image shows not so
much a vehicle as a cartoon version of a vehicle. Measured against the basic principles of
functional product design, one finds all of them violated and that as a result this 'product'
is not a product at all. It's merely an image. Its aesthetics, which emphasize curvature, are
remarkably similar to those that dominated the digital-animated classic, Toy Story. Like Toy
Story, the Tesla Semi-Truck has a retro look, harking back to those early horseless-carriages
of ca. 1900 steered by a centrally position rudder but at the same time the Depression-era
visions of Norman Bel Geddes. Hence contemplating it we get a whiff of Back to the Future,
another filmed fantasy. The semi-truck's closest cultural equivalent may be the scenographic
'house' in the film, Mon Oncle. Its not merely retro but actually reactionary politics,
meanwhile, are revealed by the centralized 'control' position to be absolutist (the
historical reference being Versailles, where all of nature and all of culture converged upon
the singular person of the Sun King).
If they have developed cars that can park themselves (with sensors, LIDAR, etc) what makes
people think this truck couldn't back itself up with minimal help from a human driver? As to
the blind spots, why assume the cab and trailer aren't bristling with collision avoidance
sensors that would allow a driver to know what's on either side of a truck at the same time?
Can your truck do that? You know that most drivers ed courses tell you not to pass a truck on
the right? So much for the excellent situational awareness and lack of blind spots.
I concur with the poster above that tech criticism might not be in NC's wheelhouse:
critique Tesla as a business but leave the products alone.
what makes people think this truck couldn't back itself up with minimal help from a
human driver?
There are about three semi-trailers for every semi-tractor, so unless you're hooked up to
a Tesla-specific trailer you will be limited to the bottleneck of the standardized CAN
communication link between the tractor and trailer barring an extraordinarily expensive
retrofit for every trailer you plan on hauling (to add additional sensing elements like
cameras or LIDARs together with a viable communication link). I've worked with some function
developers for automated or partially automated backing functions, and it's not an easy
problem because even things like the articulation angle between the tractor and trailer
require new sensing elements and don't come "for free" and worst of all you're running blind
on the trailer unless you make it easier for yourself by equipping it with expensive
hardware.
Often it's the case that the tractor operator doesn't own the trailer. It could be done
for a test trailer, but then it would just give even more credence to Hubert Horan's
criticism that the underlying economics are abysmal because someone would have to add all
this junk to any beat-up old trailer you'd want to haul around to use the functions.
> If they have developed cars that can park themselves (with sensors, LIDAR, etc)
what makes people think this truck couldn't back itself up with minimal help from
a human driver ? As to the blind spots, why assume the cab and
trailer aren't bristling with collision avoidance sensors that would
allow a driver to know what's on either side of a truck at the same time? Can your truck
do that? You know that most drivers ed courses tell you not to pass a truck on the right? So
much for the excellent situational awareness and lack of blind spots.
Does this help? (I eliminated the handwaving to expose the essential logic.)
Please permit me a moment of dystopian tongue-in-cheek ;-)
Once you understand/accept/believe that Tesla isn't positioning itself for a future where
its semi product needs "drivers", the departure from actual human ergonomics is not
surprising here. Musk and his ilk are all about "robots" replacing humans – although
Tesla won't fully succeed in that endeavor here yet. The center seat is really designed for
the next generation of passive human assist – there to
reboot/triage/recharge/protect-the-package, but not actually manage the motor function as it
were. Non unionized, semi-stowaways working for less than a living wage without benefits
should fit the bill. It'll be touted as easy work:
– Get to travel and America's far flung interstate destinations!
– Comfortable spacious interior!
– No background or credit-check required!
Training for the job will be two days:
– One to prove you can learn and execute the trouble-shooting scripts
– And another for signing forms, waivers and peeing in a cup
Gee, that's odd. Elon's not marketing the Semi that way!
I guess a detailed examination of the Semi as an artifact does pay off, doesn't it? No
wonder I keep getting told not to do it; "not in my wheelhouse," etc.
Lambert wrote: Elon's not marketing the Semi that way!
Come on, Lambert. However Musk markets his Semi (should he actually bring it to fruition),
clearly any human on board an autonomous truck will be there in a supernumerary role as a
watchman/guard. That's the point of the technology.
More generally, because you don't like the idea of AVs, you're clearly trying to find
objections to them. But because it's 2017 and you're an older guy who doesn't go to AI trade
shows, you imagine that the technology is far less advanced than it actually is. As a result,
you're asking the wrong questions and coming up with the wrong answers about where the
problems are/will be. Let's forget Musk and look at Mercedes Benz's efforts with AVs --
However, the world's oldest automaker has just announced it doesn't view the trolley
problem as a problem. To the contrary: Mercedes-Benz headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany,
claims that when it starts selling autonomous cars this year, their 'moral algorithm' will
always prioritize their occupants' safety over any number of pedestrians' lives. What's up
with that?
[2] The CEO of Mercedes-Benz USA, Dietmar Exler, gestured in the general direction of the
answer when he claimed that what's really delaying autonomous vehicles "is humans." If
autonomous cars were deployed today, Exler said, they'd share the road with human-driven cars
and humans would "bully" driverless cars (which will be programmed to follow laws and avoid
obstructions) by speeding, driving erratically and cutting in line in traffic.
Exler is being somewhat ingenuous. But basically he's right. Consider some of the
problems, especially from an auto-manufacturer's POV.
[3] For starters, one study, 'The Social Dilemma of Autonomous
Vehicles, ' found that people favor minimizing number of deaths as a general principle,
even if that jeopardizes an autonomous car's passengers. Yet when asked what autonomous cars
they'd personally buy, the same people want one that prioritizes protecting them and their
passengers.
[4] This is a classic cooperate-or-defect social problem. Furthermore, in any and all
potential scenarios involving AVs versus human drivers, reflexivity will be central to
whatever real-world outcomes ensue. (Reflexivity, meaning that each actor's next action will
be predicated on the previous actors' actions.) In short, we're in the realm of game
theory.
[5] So what's that mean? Here's a very simple example: an autonomous vehicle is parked at the
curb but preparing to pull out into a busy street. Though its indicators are on, human
drivers nevertheless keep coming: the autonomous vehicle, programmed to keep specific safe
distances between itself and other cars, can't move into traffic. (This has actually
happened).
[6] Now let's reconsider trucks. If all it takes to slow and stop an autonomous vehicle is
to drive too close or throw on the brakes ahead of it, large trucks transporting expensive
goods will be easily stopped and looted by thieves, and kidnappers will have straight shots
at those wealthy one-percenters who comprise the upper end of Mercedes-Benz's customer
base.
So manufacturers will be in the business of offering different versions of their 'moral
algorithms.' After all, simple physics tells us that just different vehicles' weights and
braking times will require variations in how their moral algorithms perform. Large trucks, in
the same way that they'll require longer braking times, will be programmed with a wider range
of avoidance strategies than just stopping dead when another vehicle gets too close. The risk
of criminal attack will be factored in, too.
[7] But then consider the sorts of questions that arise. If manufacturers offer different
versions of their moral algorithm and a buyer knowingly chooses one version over another, is
that buyer to blame for any harmful consequences of the algorithm's decisions? Why would the
blame not necessarily attach to a manufacturer that created different, 'more aggressive'
versions of that algorithm in the first place?
Because manufacturers are going to compete to offer 'better' AV algorithms and AI. Do you
begin to see the problems?
(And yes, the insurance industry is going to factor in to how this all plays out.)
Every time I read an article about autonomous vehicles I have the same thought.
Does anyone else remember back (in the 70's) when they instituted the 55 mph national
speed limit.
Three guys drove exactly at 55 mph three abreast going across country on route 80. The
traffic back up behind them was monumental. Of course they did it in protest
But I see monumental traffic jams all over the country when all these autonomous vehicles
obey traffic laws to the letter.
Just a couple of thoughts.
When, if ever, will the infrastructure such as interstate highways be upgraded or expanded.
Who's going to pay when politicians don't usually drive our congested roads. They fly.
Not enough money is spent now so how do we expect the government or, god forbid, private
companies to build new roads or expand highways to three lanes etc.
Truckers here along interstate 5 in California continue to pass other trucks and leave a long
trail of cars behind them until they finally pass the "slow" truck. The CHP never ticket
them.
Don't you think the Tesla semis would have a self back up system? Cars parallel park today so
why can't trucks auto back up? They would also have side car and blind spot warning systems
installed.
I'd rather take my chances with an automated computer driven semi than with an over worked,
stressed out, low paid(which may be debatable), lane cutting person driving a semi.
Where will we get all the electricity used on electric vehicles and trucks.
Automated computer assisted or self driving trucks will be safer for the other drivers on the
highways and byways.
Safe driving all.
"I'd rather take my chances with an automated computer driven semi than with an over
worked, stressed out, low paid(which may be debatable), lane cutting person driving a
semi."
sounds like you have some priors here. Maybe you should tell us your income so we know where
to place the ostensilby low paid kajillionaire driving a semi back and forth across the
country in a randian self sufficient manner. Funny that in your place as an american consumer
you feel wronged when one of the trucks carrying your goods to wal mart, (where you must shop
because cheap, right?) gets in the way while you live the consumptive california lifestyle
relying on cheap labor and cheap energy. I have driven up and down I-5 countless times in my
57 years and have not experienced the pain that you refer to in having to wait your turn on
the interstate. You close with the fantasy that a self driving semi will be safer when today,
nov 28 2017, there is no safe self driving vehicle, as in no human, in existence, and
numerous fantasy land assessents of what they will be able to do with features that have not
yet been invented f-35 anyone? Why don't you just say I hate truck drivers and humans in
general and can't wait until anyone I think is stupid is replaced by a robot " bristling with
sensors" as a previous poster put it. And as someone who has navigated siskiyou summit and
driven down past ashland in a snowstorm I would much rather have a person in control of that
80,000 lb plus projectile hurtling will ye or nill ye down that hill. Just arrogance and
hubris to claim that you drive great and everybody else is the problem. If you drive in
california, you cut people off, impossible not to. Your self driving technology is not as
competent as that deplorable behind the wheel (who, by the way, is actually bristling with
sensors). You are probably more at risk from mexican trucks being allowed to drive on us
highways, which you certainly favor as you are a californian and every californian knows that
mexicans are cheaper, and cheap is what you're after. And since we're on the topic of cheap,
where are these trucking companies with barely legal rigs going to get the money to buy a
fleet of tesla semi's? I'm in construction and every company almost has some real POS unsafe
trucks because that's what they could afford to buy, transfer that reality over to your
fantasy and see what it looks like. How about all those tomato trucks in the CVBB, yeah,
those guys will all be self driving once archer daniels owns every acre of land in the valley
and can scale their self driving fleet globally, but at some point there will be a demand
issue (as you pointed out, truck drivers must get paid, and then they buy stuff), but I
imagine that can be solved with mandatory purchasing, as it was with obamacare. Having been
cheated by numerous cheapskate californians (I'm not rich, bill in the mansion next door is
rich), I seem to have some priors myself. All for me and none for thee. As cali goes, so goes
the nation, and cali is corrupt to the core (see CalPers, see difi's husband selling post
offices for actual kajillions, not truck driver kajillions, I could easily go on). The tesla
semi center console looks to me exactly how my programmer friends look like at their desks
(feature?), as a matter of fact, if you're a programmer and the self driving semi could
actually be your office and you could get paid a truck drivers kajillion and a programmers
actual kajillion and if you added the two together you would have more kalillions and not
have to share the highway or anything else in true california style And in closing I will
implore you, should your self driving semi actually take the road in numbers, please do not
cut off the self driving semi just because you can. Wait your turn, it's safer.
In response to your comments. In no particular order.
Well, you and I both pay for the insanely overpriced and under performing F-35. A fantastic
waste of money. Why do we spend $600 billion on the military and another $200+ billion on our
intelligence and black box agencies?
Through my respective elected politicians I have voiced my displeasure with the military and
intelligence agency budgets and the F-35 in particular.
I live on Social Security and a pension. I am not rich, don't have a million dollar beach
front home or a mansion on a hilltop. I will have one when I meet my maker for he has many
mansions.
If I live on cheap labor here in California and also from other third world countries I guess
you do to.
I drive 400 miles a couple of times a month to help care for my mother who is suffering from
Alzheimer's disease and my father, a 32 year Army highly decorated combat veteran. Silver
star, Bronze star with V for valor and 4 Purple hearts. He doesn't brag about it but he is a
hero to me and is happy to see me arrive home safe.
I prayed every day for two years that he come home safely. My father has Multiple
Myeloma(look it up) caused in part by being exposed to agent orange. Helping them is my
duty.
Cheap labor. How about you, or one of your kids or any friends you have try working the
agricultural fields for a few weeks. You won't last. My father(a Mexican born a US citizen)
worked the cotton fields in New Mexico and my mom, along with my bother and me, worked
bunching onions,cauliflower and broccoli in the fields of the Salinas valley. Oh, we got paid
"piece" rate.
The field workers should get a fair and living wage. Just like everyone of us who is willing
to work.
I never said I was a great driver or that everyone else is the problem.I have one driving
ticket.
Both the Obama and Trump administrations have allowed your "Mexican truckers" drive in the
U.S.
Looks to me like you don't like Californians, stereotype all of us as cheap and at the same
time rich millionaires, hate Mexican truck drivers and those who work our fields.
As one decent American once said, "Have you no sense of decency".
Oh don't get me wrong the mexicans and I get along great, we're just workers trying to
make it and none of us responsible for the policies enacted which created the current
paradigm upon which we gaze in wonder. My issue with mexican trucks is the regulatory
arbitrage where maintaining your fleet in mexico may be at a lower standard and also is
intended to pressure american wages since as I recall you mentioned overpaid truckers. You're
also correct that I have "issues" regarding California. I still say that self driving
technology has significant obstacles that call it's inevitability into question.
Doing an 11-hour stint in a dark cockpit in the glow of large digital screens only works
in anime and "Battlestar Galactica."
Actually, not so different from flying a modern airliner at night.
It makes sense that Semi Truck cockpits resemble (in design and operation) their airliners
counterparts, with the computer does the rutinary work while the human monitors and acts on
abnormal conditions.
So, I do not see why the design principles and human factors considerations that have
improved airliner safety during the last decades cannot also do it for Semi Trucks. Of
course, with proper adaptation.
I know unions aren't what they used to be -- but wasn't the teamsters union one of the
unions often inclined toward physical confrontations with scabs? The new autonomous trucks
might need to include autonomous systems for self-defense.
The more I think about the more electric trucks -- human driven or autonomous -- trucking
goods all over the country just seems so retro. The near future without cheap petroleum will
probably end all that whether the motor runs on electric, hydrogen, natural gas, gasoline or
diesel. I suppose if we plant enough fast growing trees we could always run steam engines --
if we are still spending our energy and energies on transport to exploit cheap labor from
across the oceans and far far away.
"... There is disconnect between the real world and Central Banks fantasy world represented by stock market valuations. That is all. CB can't even normalize the rates. Even A 50bp hike would be a "monetary shock". So, CB are left only to blow real state bubbles and print extraction of remaining uneconomical oil from the ground. ..."
I do not know if I am kidding or not, I am not smart enough to know what future oil demand
will be.
I noticed this week a big push by the media to get Tony Seba's predictions out there of $25
oil and demand down to 70 million BOPD worldwide in 10 years.
I have a hard time envisioning all of this EV, ride sharing, autonomous stuff, but I do note:
Toyota Motor Corporation P/E 9.92 Market Cap: $159 billion
Ford Motor Company P/E 11.62 Market Cap: $43.63 billion
General Motors Company P/E 5.10 Market Cap: $49.79 billion
Telsa, Inc. P/E: no earnings Market Cap: $53.33 billion
It is really kind of like shale, makes no sense in terms of making money, but that does not
matter. It is a disruptive technology, like Facebook, Google, etc. That seems to be the big thing.
There is disconnect between the real world and Central Banks fantasy world represented by stock
market valuations. That is all. CB can't even normalize the rates. Even A 50bp hike would be a
"monetary shock". So, CB are left only to blow real state bubbles and print extraction of remaining
uneconomical oil from the ground.
And you know probably more than anybody else (when looking at shale balance sheet) that is
bleak picture when even crap shale appeals attractive for CB/Fed to throw money in order to keep
those fairy tale of FB, Tesla sky high valuations. Society is throwing real resources to keep
fantasy world of market valuations alive. Total insanity.
In almost all sectors now retail, computing, pharmaceuticals, banks, there is a top heavy model
where a small group of companies dominate almost every sector. There are various reasons for this,
but it is not helped by well meaning politicians interfering in the market through regulation
and tax policy, and wage subsidy for certain firms. Walmart gets govt money to subsides the wages
it pays its staff. While this is well meaning to improve the lot of the low paid workers it has
a knock on effect.
Why should tax payers subsidy Walmart? The money should be coming out of the Walton families
fortune. And if they won't pay their workers more money perhaps that may make it easier for mum
and pop stores to compete. After all they don't get the same help paying their staff. Walmart
may find it more difficult to retain and keep staff. Endless regulations also don't help small
business compete. It's well known inside the belt way and in the EU that the big boys like regulations,
and often lobby behind the scenes to help make it hard for their smaller competitors.
And then we come to the biggest interference of all. The federal reserve, and the ECB and the
ability to crate endless amounts of free money for the elites. How do you think these companies
are able to stay afloat for years as investors throw endless amounts of money at these companies
even though they are not making much profit? Amazon has returned very poor amounts back to share
holders, and its owner's greatest skill has been to keep convincing his shareholders to keep piling
more and more freshly printed fiat into keeping the company going. All this endless free money
also encourages endless merges and acquisitions which reduces competition for the customer. No
so easy to take over your competitors if you have to actually have the money to buy them out.
A great example of this crazy market is the car company Tesla. The Company burned over $1.5
billion in in 2016. This was provided by cheap credit and equity markets which ponied over a net
$2.7 billion to the Company in 2016. In addition Telsa was given huge tax advantages for the first
200,000 vehicles. In effect Telsa's sales are being subsided by the U.S. Tax payer. The company
also operates a buyback scheme where it guarantees the resale value on its sales up to 2016. That
could be a liability of some $2-3 billion in the future. Comically Wall Street values Telsa at
$5 billion more than Ford. Yet Ford sold 2.5million cars last year compared to Telsa's 79 thousand.
Now obviously investors are betting on new technology eventually coming good, and replacing the
oil fired engine. But without all the smoke and mirrors of funny money this could not continue
for very long.
As CNET reports,
the problem lies with the electric parking
brakes that help secure the vehicles when placed in Park.
The parking brakes
contain a small gear that might fracture, which would prevent the parking brake from
releasing. Thus, a car that enters Park may not be able to move again. This has no
bearing on the vehicles' regular brakes, and Tesla has received no reports of the
parking brake system failing to hold a car in place.
Tesla estimates that
about 2 percent of the vehicles recalled contain the improperly manufactured gear.
It should be noted that the parking brake assembly is from a third-party supplier, as
well.
And additionally,
as
Fortune reports,
Tesla
owners
filed a class-action lawsuit against the automaker for allegedly mischaracterizing the
capabilities of its
Autopilot
2
feature to consumers.
The lawsuit,
filed
by
law firm Hagens Berman on Wednesday in California's Northern district court, said
Tesla's
partial
autopilot technology
was advertised as safe and "stress-free," but instead
"is essentially unusable and demonstrably dangerous."
"Unwittingly, buyers of the affected vehicles have become beta
testers of half-baked software that renders Tesla vehicles dangerous if engaged," the
lawsuit says.
Tesla cars with the Autopilot 2 features were first sold in
October 2016. The first generation of the system was first unveiled in 2014. The
Autopilot 2, or Enhanced Autopilot, feature costs consumers $5,000.
"What consumers received were cars without standard
safety enhancements featured by cars costing less than half the price of a new Tesla,
and a purported 'Enhanced Autopilot' that operates in an erratic and dangerous manner,"
Steve Berman, managing partner of Hagens Berman,
said
in a statement
.
"... Tesla now trades at 271 times projected 2018 adjusted earnings, according to FactSet. Ford and GM, in contrast, trade at less than seven and six times the 2018 estimate, respectively. Tesla gets that valuation because it is expected to upend the auto industry, while earning big profits that would bring down the multiple. ..."
"... Is that possible? Here is Grant's math on what Tesla, which sold about 76,000 cars in 2016 and lost $675 million on sales of $7 billion, would need to do: ..."
"... CEO Elon Musk forecasts Tesla can produce 500,000 cars in 2018, while analysts, a bullish lot, peg the number of deliveries at 302,000. Let's say the delivery number is 380,000. Pencil in an average selling price of $50,000-Tesla will still be selling high-priced Model S and Model X vehicles along with the Model 3. That scenario yields just under $21 billion in automotive revenue. Add another $2 billion in sales from its residential solar and energy businesses. If Tesla gets the same 5.4% operating margin that GM and Ford averaged last year, it would generate operating income of $1.1 billion. Subtract $200 million for interest expense and tax the remainder at 25%: The result is $700 million in net income, giving Tesla a multiple roughly 10 times bigger than GM and Ford. ..."
"... The bottom line: "the company would have to quintuple the number of cars it sells, earn margins equivalent to those of its highly efficient competitors and not sell new shares." It is also priced to perfection: should any of these variables be adversely revised, be it lower sales, lower margin, lower selling price, and Tesla doesn't come close to earning enough to get to 10 times the multiple of its bigger rivals by the end of 2018. ..."
Finally, in today's
Heard on
the Street
, the WSJ's Charlie Grant once again looks at the age old question: "what
is Tesla really worth", noting that even as Tesla becomes the most valuable US carmaker
by market cap, its profits remain far behind:
"Tesla now trades at 271 times projected 2018 adjusted earnings, according to
FactSet. Ford and GM, in contrast, trade at less than seven and six times the 2018
estimate, respectively. Tesla gets that valuation because it is expected to upend the
auto industry, while earning big profits that would bring down the multiple.
"
Is that possible? Here is Grant's math on what Tesla, which sold about 76,000 cars in
2016 and lost $675 million on sales of $7 billion, would need to do:
... to actually earn enough profits to reduce Tesla's multiple to something in the
realm of reasonable would require almost heroic assumptions. First, the basics: Say
Tesla's valuation should be 10 times higher than GM and Ford's, and say Tesla's share
price stays constant at about $300. That means Tesla would need to earn $4.29 a share
in 2018, which equals $700 million in total net income, assuming the current share
count doesn't change.
And the assumptions:
CEO Elon Musk forecasts Tesla can produce 500,000 cars in 2018, while analysts, a
bullish lot, peg the number of deliveries at 302,000. Let's say the delivery number
is 380,000. Pencil in an average selling price of $50,000-Tesla will still be selling
high-priced Model S and Model X vehicles along with the Model 3. That scenario
yields just under $21 billion in automotive revenue. Add another $2 billion in sales
from its residential solar and energy businesses. If Tesla gets the same 5.4%
operating margin that GM and Ford averaged last year, it would generate operating
income of $1.1 billion. Subtract $200 million for interest expense and tax the
remainder at 25%:
The result is $700 million in net income, giving Tesla a
multiple roughly 10 times bigger than GM and Ford.
The bottom line:
"the company would have to quintuple the number of cars it
sells, earn margins equivalent to those of its highly efficient competitors and not sell
new shares."
It is also priced to perfection: should any of these variables be
adversely revised, be it lower sales, lower margin, lower selling price, and Tesla
doesn't come close to earning enough to get to 10 times the multiple of its bigger
rivals by the end of 2018.
Oh well, as Grant concludes that just like during the dot com bubble, "valuation has
never mattered before for Tesla's investors and it may not matter at the end of next
year. Shareholders may be willing to wait five years instead of two for Tesla to
generate big profits, or they may continue to figure that valuation doesn't matter for a
game-changer like Tesla."
One thing is clear: the longer TSLA shareholders wait to take Musk to task, giving
him the benfit of the doubt, the more tweets such as these will hit Musk' timeline,
which instead of focusing on fundamentals...
Tesla Semi truck unveil set for September. Team has done an
amazing job. Seriously next level.
... suggest that the genius inventor is more interested in even greater boondoggles
and even more burned cash, even as Musk's personal vendetta with shorts and competitors
grows.
For now, judging by Tesla's record price, it's working.
Finally, in today's
Heard on
the Street
, the WSJ's Charlie Grant once again looks at the age old question: "what
is Tesla really worth", noting that even as Tesla becomes the most valuable US carmaker
by market cap, its profits remain far behind:
"T
esla now trades at 271 times projected 2018 adjusted earnings, according to
FactSet. Ford and GM, in contrast, trade at less than seven and six times the 2018
estimate, respectively. Tesla gets that valuation because it is expected to upend the
auto industry, while earning big profits that would bring down the multiple.
"
Is that possible? Here is Grant's math on what Tesla, which sold about 76,000 cars in
2016 and lost $675 million on sales of $7 billion, would need to do:
... to actually earn enough profits to reduce Tesla's multiple to something in the
realm of reasonable would require almost heroic assumptions. First, the basics: Say
Tesla's valuation should be 10 times higher than GM and Ford's, and say Tesla's share
price stays constant at about $300. That means Tesla would need to earn $4.29 a share
in 2018, which equals $700 million in total net income, assuming the current share
count doesn't change.
And the assumptions:
CEO Elon Musk forecasts Tesla can produce 500,000 cars in 2018, while analysts, a
bullish lot, peg the number of deliveries at 302,000. Let's say the delivery number
is 380,000. Pencil in an average selling price of $50,000-Tesla will still be selling
high-priced Model S and Model X vehicles along with the Model 3. That scenario
yields just under $21 billion in automotive revenue. Add another $2 billion in sales
from its residential solar and energy businesses. If Tesla gets the same 5.4%
operating margin that GM and Ford averaged last year, it would generate operating
income of $1.1 billion. Subtract $200 million for interest expense and tax the
remainder at 25%:
The result is $700 million in net income, giving Tesla a
multiple roughly 10 times bigger than GM and Ford.
The bottom line:
"the company would have to quintuple the number of cars it
sells, earn margins equivalent to those of its highly efficient competitors and not sell
new shares."
It is also priced to perfection: should any of these variables be
adversely revised, be it lower sales, lower margin, lower selling price, and Tesla
doesn't come close to earning enough to get to 10 times the multiple of its bigger
rivals by the end of 2018.
Oh well, as Grant concludes that just like during the dot com bubble, "valuation has
never mattered before for Tesla's investors and it may not matter at the end of next
year. Shareholders may be willing to wait five years instead of two for Tesla to
generate big profits, or they may continue to figure that valuation doesn't matter for a
game-changer like Tesla."
One thing is clear: the longer TSLA shareholders wait to take Musk to task, giving
him the benfit of the doubt, the more tweets such as these will hit Musk' timeline,
which instead of focusing on fundamentals...
Tesla Semi truck unveil set for September. Team has done an
amazing job. Seriously next level.
... suggest that the genius inventor is more interested in even greater boondoggles
and even more burned cash, even as Musk's personal vendetta with shorts and competitors
grows.
No worries, mate, there are enough dupes who will put an $85,000 deposit on
a Tesla truck, for Musk to pyramid the wages at Fremont and Gohrmann, then
get Trump MAGA tax credits to bail out the whole thing, as Tesla 3s flood
the market with pyrotechnical battery failures, which Musk will bail out
with the announcement of the new Tesla commuter gyrocopter that drops you
off at your office, then returns as a UAV at your e-battery house, much like
the Jetsons.
What's the per car subsidy from the tax payer for every Tesla? I think it's
either $7,000 or $11,000 And this asshat still hasn't broken even yet? Time to
pull ALL subsidies and let him shit the bed. None of this faggotry should be on
the tax payer's heads.
People who can afford $50K+ cars don't need an
innocent bystander's pay check at the point of Uncle Sham's gun to subsidize a
demand that just isn't there at realistic prices.
As unintuitive as it sounds, this comment is right on the money. Given
the radical impact this will have on transportation and the ideal fit for
American society (our current interstate highway system, reliance on
personal vehicles, etc.) then Tesla is a massive game changer, in concert
with autonomous vehicle technology. That subsidy may in fact be on the
low side, as much as it irks me to admit it.
It might well be that troubles just started for Musk.
== quote ==
SAN FRANCISCO/DETROIT (Reuters) - A group of Tesla Inc investors has urged the luxury electric
car maker to add two new independent directors to its board, without ties to Chief Executive Elon
Musk, to "provide a critical check on possible dysfunctional group dynamics."
For those who may have missed it, GM's former Vice Chairman Bob Lutz dropped a whole lot of reality
on some unsuspecting Tesla cheerleaders on CNBC this morning. A rather blunt Lutz shared his views,
as have we on several occasions, that Tesla's constant cash burn combined with a barrage of competitive
models that are about to hit the market likely indicate that the company is "doomed." As for Tesla's
gravity-defying stock price, Lutz attributed the company's soaring market cap solely to Musk being
the "greatest salesman in the world" along with his being "aided and abetted by some analysts."
"I am a well known Tesla skeptic. Somehow it's levitating and I think it's Elon Musk is the greatest
salesman in the world. He paints this vision of an unlimited future, aided and abetted by some analysts.
It's like Elon Musk has been beamed down from another planet to show us mortals how to run a company."
"The fact is it's a constant cash drain. They're highly dependent on federal government and state
incentives for money which constantly flows in. They have capital raises all the time."
"Even the high-end cars that they build now cost more to build than they're able to sell them
for."
"Mercedes, BWM, Volkswagen, GM, Audi and Porsche are all coming out with 300-mile [range] electric
luxury sedans... I think they're doomed."
At that point, an incredulous CNBC host was forced to step in asking "what does doomed mean?"
"What does doomed mean? Their stock price comes in? They go out of business? They have regular
competition like other companies? What do you mean by doomed?"
Fortunately, Lutz was happy to entertain the question and explained to the shocked CNBC hosts
that when your variable production costs exceed your products sales price...well, that's a problem.
"Their upside on pricing is limited because everybody else sells electric vehicles at a loss to
get the credits to be able to sell the sport utility vehicles and the pickup trucks. So that puts
a ceiling on your possible pricing."
"And if he can't make money on the high-end Model S and Model X's which sell up to $100,000, how
in the world is he going to make money on a $35,000 small car? Because I have news for you, 42 years
of experience, the cost of a car doesn't come down proportional to it's price."
"If you have a situation where the cost of producing a car, labor and materials, is higher than
your sell price, your business model is flawed. And it's doomed and it's going to fail."
Finally, the stunned CNBC anchors offered up one more defense by highlighting the massive value
of Tesla's battery and solar operations, but were once again shut down in epic fashion...
"The battery plant, in my estimation, is a joke. There are no cost savings from making a lithium
ion plant bigger than other people lithium ion plants, because making lithium ion cells is a fully
automated process anyway. So, whether you got full automative in a small building or 10x full automation
in a big building, you're not saving any money."
Tesla stole their factory from GM when GM was in bankruptcy
and was forced by the government to sell it to Tesla for 42
mln when it cost 2.5 bln new. Talk about a government
subsidy. Musk is no visionary. I would be one too if the
government gave me a gift of 2.5bln.
He is of course
different in that he loses 20,000 dollars on each 100,000
dollar car he sells.
Are you representing GM in a lawsuit? I'll let you and mulp
detail the particulars of your latest.
And yea - startups often have early recorded operating
losses as they are investing in the future. Quite often -
those investments eventually pan out wonderfully.
I know better than to short sell Tesla. You dont short sell a
government sponsored company. He has friends in high places.
Gary Cohn sounds like he will fund Musk's next brain fart -
maglev trains.
"And yea - startups often have early recorded operating
losses as they are investing in the future"
You such a
naïve dreamer.
Tesla has little or no future unless government updates
the grid to accommodate charging cars at night (let's assume
30 KW per night (out of 60KW/h battery). That's around 3 KW/h
load assuming 10 hour change period. Not a pocket change).
It is completing in BMW dominated stort luxity car
segment. I think it will be crushed because nobody undersnd
this business beter then BMW.
I would bet the BMW either buy during some mishap, when it
will be cheap, or most probably drive it out of business.
Mask is too preoccupied with his other ventures to be
successful.
I have a douther of a friend working in Tesla. From what I
heard Tesla is a badly managed company and the cars, while
very nice, are very expensive and have a lot of problems.
The company is running on hype like dot-com startup. At
some point the hype smoke screen will no longer work.
Some of them like one guy on Youtube has with steering can
be deadly. That an interesting proposition for $100K car.
"Tesla has little or no future unless government updates the
grid to accommodate charging cars at night (let's assume 30
KW per night (out of 60KW/h battery). That's around 3 KW/h
load assuming 10 hour change period. Not a pocket change)."
That's a massive overestimate of average demand for each
electric car.
The median commute in the US is less than 10 miles each
way. The 90th percentile is around 30 miles each way.
Considering the current teslas have a 265 mile capacity,
the average driver would not deplete it by half every day.
Not even close.
You are right. I contradict myself in two way but the problem
still exists.
1. If we assume that the car belong to the luxury segment,
then those people by definition will get as many KW/h as
necessary.
2. If average is 10 miles each way (20 miles per day) then
10 KW/h per night (on average) is not a problem, unless it is
a hot night and all air conditioners are up. It is like
leaving one burner in electrical stove up all night.
Also large companies usually have chargers at their
parking lots and this practice will be more widespread as
more people use electrical cars. Some supermarkets now have
changers to (mainly in CA).
But it would remain a problem, if most commuters in
particular area commute 60 miles each way to the nearby large
city. So this problem can be just the local problem of
municipalities, which belong to "remote metropolitan suburbs
without nearby trains" category.
In any case the level of penetration of hybrids and
electrical cars in personal transportation segment in the USA
is dismal, and here government efforts are badly required.
The top selling hybrid electric vehicle in the country is
the conventional Toyota Prius, which has sold 1,643,000 units
since 2000 through April 2016, representing a 40.8% market
share of all hybrids sold in the U.S. since 1999.[6]
Cumulative sales of the Prius nameplate totaled 1,932,805
units delivered through April 2016, representing a 48.0%
market share of total hybrid sales in the
U.S.[1][2][3][4][5][7][8] As of April 2016, the conventional
Prius is followed by the Toyota Camry Hybrid, with 345,640
units sold since 2006, the Honda Civic Hybrid, with
cumulative sales of 234,610 vehicles since 2002, the Ford
Fusion Hybrid with 166,341 units since 2009, and the Toyota
Prius c with 165,075 units since 2012.[6]
With current battery technology, battery performance or load
retention declines noticeably in cold weather. During the
cold season, electric power per mile will increase.
The
problem with company charging stations is that it doesn't
scale - it works when relatively few people have electric
cars (that they need to charge).
Then I doubt the 10 mile median commute to begin with -
specifically for people who can afford an electric car.
Where I work, a large number (not sure whether majority)
of people made no secret that they bought the electric car to
be able to ride alone in the car pool lane (without paying
toll), not for environmental reasons or fuel saving.
I'm hearing some companies charge money for charging, or
"encourage" owners to move their car when it is charged or
after a certain time. This works when you can leave your work
station at will to move your car - not a reality for many
workers.
But one can always find no end of problems with
anything.
no one takes the time to check out simple facts. much easier
to go with narratives that line up with your ideology.
Unfortunate thing about facts - they do not line up with with
popular narratives. And those like me who try to fit a
different narrative are derided by those on the left and the
right. I do not really mind it.
libezkova -> pgl...
April 01, 2017 at 05:31 PM
Do you think Tesla might survive for next 10 years as an
independent company. I doubt it.
Tesla cars are luxury cars
competing mainly with cars like BMW and are still of somewhat
limited value outside California. IMHO a good hybrid beats
Tesla in all important parameters for less price.
Technical problems are abound and remember that you are
traveling is what can be called a hand grenade: powerful
lithium battery that has tendency to explode if overheated or
punched by fast moving object.
I could site the economic
literature on the hold up
problem and how the
traditional car dealerships
screwed both consumers and
the car companies (and hence
taxpayers ala the 2008
bailout) but Motley Fool's
discussion of Telsa does a
really good job of making
the point on why Tesla is
awesome:
This morning I got sucked into a vortex looking at funding EV
operation through PV. I wondered, just how much solar plant
do you need to run a Tesla? That answer is not too hard,
about 200 sqft, a lot less than I expected. (That's for 5000
kWh annually, 14 kWh per day, with a yield of .66 kWh per sq
meter you need 21 sq meters.) And that's the conventional
number out there, too.
But then, what if you want to fund the replacement of the
PV plant? Well, the numbers turn out to be somewhat more than
6% energy yield annually on the energy investment of about
1100 kWh to make the panel per sq meter. If the life is 30
years (conventional assumption), then you have to fund
replacement at a bit more than 3% annually. The algebra
worked out to roughly twice the plant necessary to both run
an EV and to replace the plant.
I didn't calculate how much plant is required to also fund
the replacement of the EV, but it looks like depreciation is
more than three times operating cost. So we can estimate.
So it takes 200 sqft to run the EV.
Another 200 sqft to replace the plant.
Then maybe 660 sqft to replace the EV.
And another 660 sqft to replace the plant to replace the EV.
Totals, 1720 sqft of plant to keep your EV going.
You can fund your other energy needs off the rest of your
roof.
Currently we're funding the solar buildout by burning
fossil. At some point solar has to build solar.
So I guess I have my doubts about Mr. Musk's endeavors
representing sustainable activity. But as business, wow, what
a guy.
(electrek.co)
156
Posted by
BeauHD
on Thursday December 22, 2016 @05:45PM
from the
follow-the-rules
dept.
An anonymous reader quotes a report from Electrek:
Before a recent update
that is being gradually pushed to Tesla owners, the automaker allowed its
Autopilot to be set at a higher speed than the speed limit on all roads where
the driver assist system could be enabled, but now Tesla is
pushing
a new update to make Autopilot follow the rules of the road more closely
.
Owners of Tesla vehicles equipped with Autopilot have, up until now, been able
to set the speed of the Autopilot's 'Traffic-Aware Cruise Control' feature to
up to 5 mph over the speed limit on roads and non-divided highways. Now they
are restricted to following the speed limit exactly, without the 5 mph leeway.
On highways, the speed limit doesn't have a direct effect on the Autopilot's
speed. The speed is still limited by the Autopilot's overall 90 mph speed
limit. Every time Tesla introduces new restrictions to its Autopilot system, it
gets a mixed response from owners. While the new restrictions are often coming
from the aspiration of making the system safer, some owners always see them as
taking away capabilities that they already had and had paid for. With the
introduction of the software update v8.0 in September, Tesla
introduced a more aggressive "Autopilot nag
," which prompts more 'Hold
Steering Wheel' alerts.
"... I understand that economies of scale may lower unit costs, improve financials and allow paying down of debt. Or may not. In real life, not all Davids win a fight against Goliaths. ..."
"... In my opinion, the world is now just full of financial BS artists. I believe that in the not too distant past, when Carnegie started the new steel industry, or Rockefeller with oil, or the railroads with Vanderbilt, or Henry Ford with the auto, or Bill Gates with computers, or Steve Jobs with computers, or any number of thousands of people – that their view, nor that of their backers was -"net losses, negative cash flows and rising debt" was NOT viewed as NORMAL. But, today's BS artists seem to think so. ..."
"... Here is Tesla's major, major problem – well, one of them. Their production division is a train wreck. They are having huge problems even rolling out 50K per year. They only shipped 800 vehicles in March. ..."
"... FYI, even with a well-oiled-mass-market vehicle production machine like GM, it takes about 8-9 months of pre-production assembly line runs to get the product tweaks and the line up to full retail production capacity. GM started pre-production on the Bolt about 2 months ago. For Tesla to be hitting 7/1/17 mass production, they need have the line re-tooled for their high-volume and doing pre-production runs by this October. Yeah, right. ..."
As I said above, "I know that this is a new, high-growth industry, so net losses, negative
cash flows and rising debt should be viewed as something normal."
I understand that economies of scale may lower unit costs, improve financials and allow
paying down of debt. Or may not. In real life, not all Davids win a fight against Goliaths.
My question is: how many years a company in a new industry can remain loss-making before the
market recognizes that it is in financial trouble?
5 years, 10 years, 15 years?
Meanwhile, Tesla's plans are becoming even more ambitious
AlexS says "I know that this is a new, high-growth industry, so net losses, negative cash flows
and rising debt should be viewed as something normal."
In my opinion, the world is now just full of financial BS artists. I believe that in the not
too distant past, when Carnegie started the new steel industry, or Rockefeller with oil, or the
railroads with Vanderbilt, or Henry Ford with the auto, or Bill Gates with computers, or Steve
Jobs with computers, or any number of thousands of people – that their view, nor that of their
backers was -"net losses, negative cash flows and rising debt" was NOT viewed as NORMAL. But,
today's BS artists seem to think so.
I am not criticizing AlexS, although he may have been influenced by such propaganda. The NORMAL
would be for a new industry to have windfall profits, protected by patents, that would eventually
wane away as other competitors, and new technology came onto the scene. Think – Xerox, Polaroid,
Eastman Kodak, Alcoa, Gateway Computer, Bomar Brain, etc.
Remember, normal is an average, so there are examples on both ends of the spectrum.
shallow sand, 05/05/2016 at 5:00 pm
Seems like after hearing Musk on the CC today, even some of the believers are starting to waiver.
The one that got me was that they took all of these $1000 REFUNDABLE deposits and applied them
to their line.
Has anyone there ever heard of escrow or trust account?
Ves, 05/05/2016 at 5:54 pm
" applied them to their line."
It's free money :) almost like QE from the Fed :)
HVACman, 05/05/2016 at 7:46 pm
Here is Tesla's major, major problem – well, one of them. Their production division is
a train wreck. They are having huge problems even rolling out 50K per year. They only shipped
800 vehicles in March.
The current excuse given is "supplier problems" And they think they can ramp up this broken
production unit to roll out 10x more – 500K per year – in just two years? With cash problems?
With product engineering problems? (elsewhere in the earnings comments, the Model X is noted as
the most difficult-to-build vehicle in the world. That is an engineering problem- not production
or parts.)
They are desperate for cash flow. You'd think job 1 would to to keep their inventory/parts ordering/production
processes all tightly linked so every single vehicle that is ordered is shipped ASAP. You don't
get paid until you ship. Even one-man businesses understand that.
Below is an actual excerpt from Musk's comments about the Model 3 delivery date (nominally 7/1/17
and why he already says it will slip), vehicle assembly complexity, and Tesla's parts supplier
problems. Pathetic. If a CEO at GM/Ford/BMW/Kia/everyone else ever said their production/inventory
control was this out of control, their board would immediately fire them for incompetence. Oh,
wait, Elon is the largest stockholder and controls the board.
"The date, I'm sure this will leak, it's hard to keep a secret really, the date we are setting
with suppliers to get to volume production capability with the Model 3 is July 1 next year.
Now, will we actually be able to achieve volume production on July 1 next year? Of course not.
The reason is that even if 99% of the internally produced items and supplier items are available
on July 1, we still cannot produce the car because you cannot produce a car that is missing
1% of its components. Nonetheless, we need to, both internally and with suppliers, take that
date seriously, and there need to be some penalties for anyone, internally or externally, who
does not meet that timeframe. This has to be the case because there's just no way that you
have several thousand components, all of whom make it on a particular date."
FYI, even with a well-oiled-mass-market vehicle production machine like GM, it takes about
8-9 months of pre-production assembly line runs to get the product tweaks and the line up to full
retail production capacity. GM started pre-production on the Bolt about 2 months ago. For Tesla
to be hitting 7/1/17 mass production, they need have the line re-tooled for their high-volume
and doing pre-production runs by this October. Yeah, right.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
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'Shortseller Enrichment Commission': Musk mocks SEC over fraud probe
May.13.13 | About: Tesla Motors (TSLA)
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AlexS says "I know that this is a new, high-growth industry, so net losses, negative cash flows and rising debt should be viewed as something normal."
